Patterns Observation.

[Don_xyZ]

I don't remember where Don_xyZ mentioned "hindsite" trading. This was actually some interesting insight I am exploring.

I mentioned it several times in the past but the most clear ones with examples are here:

post153985#p153985
post154027#p154027

[Jhx]

A very nice, friendly, textbook "hindsight" trading.
Chart...

This is a no-brainer entry. Up to the black horizontal (edit: I meant vertical) line is where the hindsight trading method is giving us a clear "outcome". If you are cautious, you will exit at the first dark blue box. The box below it is the original target. Trade off the M5 tf. You either get 15R + or more than 30R.

EURUSDH1 wipe it clean.png

With 3% risk per R you'll get anywhere from 45% to almost 100% profit in just 1 trade.
If you go with a funded account with 0.25% you'll get 3.75% with a very easy trade.
This is trade is a free gift from the market for those who diligently observe the market trails (patterns).
Can you find where the entry is on M5 tf? If you have read this entire thread then you should be able to or at least have a general idea on how to pick entries like this.

Wiping out the entire London and NY sessions in one go.

I thought I had answered to this one. I think I could spot an entry off the smaller timeframe, but I'm failing to see the larger pattern there (also too many wicks around that area). And also not sure how you'd know to hold until the last area below

[Don_xyZ]

The world of breakout trading.

In the past, I mentioned that breakout trading is the "safer" play amongst other play in my WIL, but I haven't given a good example. I personally used them in the past with varying degrees of success. Maybe I will start exploring their potential again with the newer knowledge that I have gathered so far.

The important stuff, the chart.

EURUSDM1 the world of breakout trading.png (59.43 KiB) Viewed 2126 times

I gave different colors to differentiate the method of breakout. All in all, there are 6 of the best BO trading method in that chart. There are other breakout methods in my WIL but those are the best ones. When I have time I might dig up my WIL book to find more good BO setup. I just gave you whole lotta stuff to think about over the weekend.

Hope you guys like it. Enjoy your weekend!

Edit note: all of them use pending orders for entry except when the market conditions warrant the use of market order.

[Jhx]

The reason why so many people fail to optimize their gains when using S/R or S/D technique is that they are so focused on the areas while missing the big picture. That is why they arrive at their TP safely and then the price still go further only to finish the pattern (and there is actually another zone waiting at the finish line). Pattern trading is hindsight trading. Imagine if you can see 50% or even 60% of the answer on your exams at school lolz That's pattern trading. You already have a lot revealed and you only need to go with the remaining. There are times when they fail but you'll make much more when it go through. That is why you should take the patterns from bigger tf and enter from small tf; to reduce the risk and optimize your R.

I'll just quote this one because I think it's eye opening / important.

Also, because I kinda had this question when I attempted this. But when trading a 'larger pattern' are there cases where you consider the smaller price action to bail out? Or you just commit to the larger pattern idea?

Also, what's your take on entering multiple times in a smaller timeframe for a larger pattern? The smaller / tighter you go, the more likely is that you might get wiggled out of it. But at the same time those tighter entries might allow for massive R.

[Don_xyZ]

A very nice, friendly, textbook "hindsight" trading.
Chart...

This is a no-brainer entry. Up to the black horizontal (edit: I meant vertical) line is where the hindsight trading method is giving us a clear "outcome". If you are cautious, you will exit at the first dark blue box. The box below it is the original target. Trade off the M5 tf. You either get 15R + or more than 30R.

EURUSDH1 wipe it clean.png

With 3% risk per R you'll get anywhere from 45% to almost 100% profit in just 1 trade.
If you go with a funded account with 0.25% you'll get 3.75% with a very easy trade.
This is trade is a free gift from the market for those who diligently observe the market trails (patterns).
Can you find where the entry is on M5 tf? If you have read this entire thread then you should be able to or at least have a general idea on how to pick entries like this.

Wiping out the entire London and NY sessions in one go.

I thought I had answered to this one. I think I could spot an entry off the smaller timeframe, but I'm failing to see the larger pattern there (also too many wicks around that area). And also not sure how you'd know to hold until the last area below

I showed everyone how to do it. There is nothing for me to hide, it's just as you said, you didn't see it. Maybe the reason is you delve too much on the entry tf and forgot to check the other tf. If you put charts together like what I do in this post:

post153994#p153994

You might never miss the chance to check the HTF again in the future.

So, how exactly did I know how to hold? Lots of the examples by the market and from me.

EURUSDDaily HTF.png (65.18 KiB) Viewed 2091 times

I believe I already mentioned this somewhere... continuation patterns on htf is pretty strong and in this case, it's even on D1 instead of H1. D1 is one of the 2 goldilock tfs. Black vertical line is where the crime scene is for the pip wipe out


Hope it makes sense. Well, it should

[Don_xyZ]

The reason why so many people fail to optimize their gains when using S/R or S/D technique is that they are so focused on the areas while missing the big picture. That is why they arrive at their TP safely and then the price still go further only to finish the pattern (and there is actually another zone waiting at the finish line). Pattern trading is hindsight trading. Imagine if you can see 50% or even 60% of the answer on your exams at school lolz That's pattern trading. You already have a lot revealed and you only need to go with the remaining. There are times when they fail but you'll make much more when it go through. That is why you should take the patterns from bigger tf and enter from small tf; to reduce the risk and optimize your R.

I'll just quote this one because I think it's eye opening / important.

Also, because I kinda had this question when I attempted this. But when trading a 'larger pattern' are there cases where you consider the smaller price action to bail out? Or you just commit to the larger pattern idea?

Also, what's your take on entering multiple times in a smaller timeframe for a larger pattern? The smaller / tighter you go, the more likely is that you might get wiggled out of it. But at the same time those tighter entries might allow for massive R.

Yes. I discussed a trade by Yirbu here:

post153986#p153986

Lemme quote:

I would hold the trade but then after I see the sharp pull back up I would close the trade settling with less than the full 75 pips. This kind of market gimmick should be in your WIL too.

You see that big wick on that red candle at the bottom of my U.S. kill zone? That's what I meant when I wrote that reply.

I already asked this question before...

If the big tf and small tf diverge, what will you do?

Personally, I will take the trade but I put more confidence and lots size when they go to the same direction.

I do multiple entries and target the big tf pattern but not always. It depends on the market condition.

I also already asked this question...

Do you have a backup plan?
What will you do if your original entry get SL-ed?

I have several ways to deal with spikes after I enter the market so most of the time I'm not taken out of the market unless I decided to get out (either by putting SL the market hit it or manually close the trade).

Massive R, yes. You have no idea how massive my R can be One of these days I'm gonna get that 300 ~ 500 R or even 1K R. Possible? Yes. I'll be sure to post it when I do to show the quality of Kreslik traders lolz

[Jhx]

The world of breakout trading.

In the past, I mentioned that breakout trading is the "safer" play amongst other play in my WIL, but I haven't given a good example. I personally used them in the past with varying degrees of success. Maybe I will start exploring their potential again with the newer knowledge that I have gathered so far.

The important stuff, the chart.

EURUSDM1 the world of breakout trading.png

I gave different colors to differentiate the method of breakout. All in all, there are 6 of the best BO trading method in that chart. There are other breakout methods in my WIL but those are the best ones. When I have time I might dig up my WIL book to find more good BO setup. I just gave you whole lotta stuff to think about over the weekend.

Hope you guys like it. Enjoy your weekend!

Edit note: all of them use pending orders for entry except when the market conditions warrant the use of market order.

I really really don't mean to nag you Don I can see where the fibs originate from but, but I don't understand what type of BO method each trade is supposed to be.

By method you mean actually a method with rules behind every one of those entries? Or each is one of some type of candlestick pattern?

[Don_xyZ]

The world of breakout trading.

In the past, I mentioned that breakout trading is the "safer" play amongst other play in my WIL, but I haven't given a good example. I personally used them in the past with varying degrees of success. Maybe I will start exploring their potential again with the newer knowledge that I have gathered so far.

The important stuff, the chart.

EURUSDM1 the world of breakout trading.png

I gave different colors to differentiate the method of breakout. All in all, there are 6 of the best BO trading method in that chart. There are other breakout methods in my WIL but those are the best ones. When I have time I might dig up my WIL book to find more good BO setup. I just gave you whole lotta stuff to think about over the weekend.

Hope you guys like it. Enjoy your weekend!

Edit note: all of them use pending orders for entry except when the market conditions warrant the use of market order.

I really really don't mean to nag you Don I can see where the fibs originate from but, but I don't understand what type of BO method each trade is supposed to be.

By method you mean actually a method with rules behind every one of those entries? Or each is one of some type of candlestick pattern?

Nag? You can't beat my wife so no problem lolz

Yes, each has its own rules. To ease viewing...

EURUSDM1 BO 1.png (52.42 KiB) Viewed 2027 times

EURUSDM1 BO 2.png (52.01 KiB) Viewed 2027 times

EURUSDM1 BO 3.png (51.98 KiB) Viewed 2027 times

EURUSDM1 BO 4.png (52.14 KiB) Viewed 2027 times

EURUSDM1 BO 5.png (53.5 KiB) Viewed 2027 times

EURUSDM1 BO 6.png (51.16 KiB) Viewed 2027 times

Some notes:

BO 1-4 are biased BO, meaning, you have an expectation of where the market will go because you have a bias attached to the method.
BO 5-6 are bi-directional so it can go both ways.
BO 1, 2, and 3 look similar but they're not. They can overlap though.
BO 1 and 2 are like siblings.
BO 5 and 6 are more like cousins.
BO 4 is often used for quick scalping with 1R in mind.
BO 1 and 2 are the most common. It's a choice between FWD or RWD on cars.
BO 5 is range based while BO 6 is Zebras up to a certain point (but not all Zebras can be used).
BO 4 is momentum based.

Those are the general ideas. It'd be too long for me to explain them all in detail for now.

[Jhx]

Some notes:

BO 1-4 are biased BO, meaning, you have an expectation of where the market will go because you have a bias attached to the method.
BO 5-6 are bi-directional so it can go both ways.
BO 1, 2, and 3 look similar but they're not. They can overlap though.
BO 1 and 2 are like siblings.
BO 5 and 6 are more like cousins.
BO 4 is often used for quick scalping with 1R in mind.
BO 1 and 2 are the most common. It's a choice between FWD or RWD on cars.
BO 5 is range based while BO 6 is Zebras up to a certain point (but not all Zebras can be used).
BO 4 is momentum based.

Those are the general ideas. It'd be too long for me to explain them all in detail for now.

I haven't seen this before, but after looking at them for some time I'll take a shot:

BO 1: You drew the fib off that M1 swing. Use the 50% to check if price retraced at least to that point and the go short at the entry line?
BO 2: This time the fib is drawn off the swing after the first, which this time is in the opposite direction. I assume now you'd take the break short? (Don't know if you use the 50% here).
BO 3: Looks like the first one. Swing and wait for a pullback to the 50% then short.

These 3 you say they're similar but they're not, maybe there's some candle-by-candle stuff on all of these that I'm not picking up.

BO 4: If I saw this after a run I'd be hesitant to go in that direction because it stopped doing what it was doing and could reverse. But since you say it's momentum based, the idea is "price stopping" and then continuing? Or do you mean as a strong move that happened within that M1 candle that would make you take the break?

BO 5: In that one I see the continuation of a reversal pattern at the bottom; being the long bar the one that you take the break off (I mean, after you draw the fib, entering on the green candle after the small red candle).

BO 6: First time I hear about that one. But I don't think I'm seeing how you used that candle to draw the fibs off that one, seemed like it was still within that range.

Could you go into one of those? Maybe the 'simpler' to get a grasp on that one.

---

One more question. Do these entries follow a specific set of rules (in terms of candle by candle) or is it more about entry patterns that look 'about there'?

[Yirbu]

Yesterday I also had a bad trading day.
I lost nearly 2.5%.
Today I took a trade "inspired" by Don.
Wiped away all my losses from yesterday

It al started at the top SD zone from Asia.
When London trades into it there are a couple of things that can happen. One of them is reverse from that zone, this is what happened today.
Price went down and bounced on the red line (previous H1 support) and came back up. I took 28pips.
Now the m5 was making a swing and I went down again with price.
Took a cup of coffee but price rallied back up so I closed it at BE.
When price filled that tiny FVG I went short again (at nearly the same price as before) and took another 21 pips.
Price went right to a previous support of the H1 (which was the target) at x20 but I wasn't fearless enough to keep it past X15.

I was thinking about a setup like this all weekend so I am really happy it worked out.

220816 - EURUSD.png

Good. I'm happy for you too. I can see that you have progressed well. I hope you'll keep posting in the forum as well coz many went missing as soon as they get what they want from kreslik lolz

A very nice, friendly, textbook "hindsight" trading.
Chart...

This is a no-brainer entry. Up to the black horizontal (edit: I meant vertical) line is where the hindsight trading method is giving us a clear "outcome". If you are cautious, you will exit at the first dark blue box. The box below it is the original target. Trade off the M5 tf. You either get 15R + or more than 30R.

EURUSDH1 wipe it clean.png

With 3% risk per R you'll get anywhere from 45% to almost 100% profit in just 1 trade.
If you go with a funded account with 0.25% you'll get 3.75% with a very easy trade.
This is trade is a free gift from the market for those who diligently observe the market trails (patterns).
Can you find where the entry is on M5 tf? If you have read this entire thread then you should be able to or at least have a general idea on how to pick entries like this.

Wiping out the entire London and NY sessions in one go.

There are situations you can risk more as you suggest on a funded account. A 2 pip SL is 1.6% risk and a 3 pip SL is 2.4%. You can do these after a few percent are gained that day.

If you hit a 10R using .5% risk early then bumping the risk up to 1% could make some nice gains. There are various ways to do it. The key is it has to be done in one day because it starts over each 24 hour period.

Yes, using more risk is in line with the funded account model. However, there are times where the anchor trade hit first before we have a buffer to do the parlay/risk gearing. Also, there are times when we don't get a chance to do parlay at all because the momentum is just too strong up or down.

I was experimenting a bit with the bigger risk but blew my new trial account at FTMO, ha, ha.
Guess I need to do it a bit more careful.

Don't worry about me leaving.
I will most likely post a bit less because I need to start my day job again soon.
This week I have been trading the deadhorse and figuring out how I can wrap my trading around my dayjob.
I think I might scale up to a higher tf on the deadhorse and or trade some days in the NY session after lunch on indices.

Also I have been working on a trading approach of my own.
Not there yet but thanks to you guys it's progressing.
I'll explain in an other post.