Patterns Observation.

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Yirbu
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Re: Micro SUPPA, a trading journey?

Postby Yirbu » Thu Aug 11, 2022 4:03 pm

Today I tried 2 setups.
One of them was Gold.
Basically about the same setup as yesterday.
Price came back at the triangle and I went long.
I missed the preferred entry (at the green line) because I was still thinking price would go lower first.
First attempt I failed/bailed so I had to find a new entry. I found it hard to stay in because price took it's time before it went up.
Eventually I could get in at the start of the red line and I closed the trade before news came at a H1 Z-Line.
That was a good call.

220811 - XAUUSD - DA.jpg
220811 - XAUUSD - DA.jpg (233.23 KiB) Viewed 1518 times


I did take the second leg down again but I messed up and got nothing when price came back up.
Then I took the third leg down and price brought me all the way down to London open (exactly at London open price as if someone planned it)
Obviously I wanted to get in earlier but unfortunately I couldn't so when there was an opportunity I added some.

Back to London.jpg
Back to London.jpg (234.91 KiB) Viewed 1518 times

I don't know if this is how it should work but it sure was fun.
Best part was that the trade went as planned.
Worst part was that it took such a long time before price started moving.

In the end I didn't have the balls to trade it back up again from London.
Completely wiped Asia out and after that also took al Londons pips back.

Now I actually didn't like the triangle too much.
Don:
Would you take it from that triangle? (is this a valid setup?)

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Re: Micro SUPPA, a trading journey?

Postby Yirbu » Thu Aug 11, 2022 4:24 pm

There is one more trade I would like to discuss.
I traded EJ down but messed it up.

Here price previously printed a double top on the Daily. Price went down but was trending up for the last couple of days.
Yesterday was a down day and I could see the H1 make lower lows (also because news yesterday) I figured price may be continuing down again.
On the H1 price was at a swinglevel and trading inside a rectangle with a double top above it. So the driving force was the double top on the h1.

I entered at the top of the rectangle.
It could have been higher but I wanted to see m5 make a lower low first.
Price went my way, I added at the bottom of the rectangle, but somehow I decided my TP had to be about 200 pips lower... :roll:

Price went down and hit the H1 Z-line, which was the original target, and came back up.
In the end I just had a couple of pips :(

I am still a bit insecure so basically I have the same question;
- Was this a "valid" setup?
- Was it a bit early to go short because we had just one down day?


220811 - EURJPY - DA.jpg
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Re: Micro SUPPA, a trading journey?

Postby aliassmith » Thu Aug 11, 2022 5:15 pm

Yirbu wrote:There is one more trade I would like to discuss.
I traded EJ down but messed it up.

Here price previously printed a double top on the Daily. Price went down but was trending up for the last couple of days.
Yesterday was a down day and I could see the H1 make lower lows (also because news yesterday) I figured price may be continuing down again.
On the H1 price was at a swinglevel and trading inside a rectangle with a double top above it. So the driving force was the double top on the h1.

I entered at the top of the rectangle.
It could have been higher but I wanted to see m5 make a lower low first.
Price went my way, I added at the bottom of the rectangle, but somehow I decided my TP had to be about 200 pips lower... :roll:

Price went down and hit the H1 Z-line, which was the original target, and came back up.
In the end I just had a couple of pips :(

I am still a bit insecure so basically I have the same question;
- Was this a "valid" setup?
- Was it a bit early to go short because we had just one down day?


220811 - EURJPY - DA.jpg


Am I seeing things or was you up 50 pips?
Trade Your Way as Long as It Makes Money!

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Re: Micro SUPPA, a trading journey?

Postby Yirbu » Thu Aug 11, 2022 5:50 pm

Yes...I think I've even seen 65... :-(
I was switching accounts and also trading dead horse.

Like I said. I messed up.

Take a caipirinha. They are also very nice.

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Re: Micro SUPPA, a trading journey?

Postby aliassmith » Thu Aug 11, 2022 10:50 pm

Yirbu wrote:Yes...I think I've even seen 65... :-(
I was switching accounts and also trading dead horse.

Like I said. I messed up.

Take a caipirinha. They are also very nice.


65 pips...
That is the trick, holding on to $$$$ and hoping for more.
"A bird in a hand is worth more than 2 in a bush"
Trade Your Way as Long as It Makes Money!

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Re: Micro SUPPA, a trading journey?

Postby Don_xyZ » Sat Aug 13, 2022 10:04 am

@Yirbu

Is a trade valid or not?

If you are trading patterns then you need to first observe the occurrences in the past. In general, a pattern will have an upper trend line and lower trend line that will act as support and resistance (horizontally or diagonally). I already mentioned that a pattern might have textbook form, less than ideal, crooked form and it can even morph into something else midway. The important thing is to take notice of the overall formation, does it resemble a known pattern? If yes, which one? After this, you draw the known boundaries for that pattern. After this, you watch how the price react when it's in close proximity. A reliable pattern is one found in the bigger time frame. H1 is my minimum, D1 is my best. Patterns in M1 must be dealt with cautiously and this is why trade grading is of utmost importance. What if M1 pattern contradicts H1 pattern? I will still take it. WIL is my power and it is the reason I can be so flexible and adapt to any market condition. What if H1 pattern contradicts D1 pattern? What if M1 & D1 vs H1? What if M1 & H1 vs D1?

If you are still having doubts about a particular trade then risk less. Fear should not be part of you if you have observed lots and lots of live chart (dead chart is still good but live is leaps and bounds better). Your WIL should guide you when you face situations during a live trade or even before putting a trade because WIL is based on observations and stats and personal experience dealing with so many market scenarios. You can exit partially, re-enter after x pips, use trailing SL or simply move the SL to the most recent important level/zone/swing/pattern.

The best part about trading a pattern is... it is very much predictable. Which pattern am I talking about? Western chart pattern, Elliot wave, Harmonics, Candlestick. Why? Because they are a culmination of other patterns as well. At the most extreme of the patterns or at each fractal of the pattern you will have either S/R or S/D or even both. The reason why so many people fail to optimize their gains when using S/R or S/D technique is that they are so focused on the areas while missing the big picture. That is why they arrive at their TP safely and then the price still go further only to finish the pattern (and there is actually another zone waiting at the finish line). Pattern trading is hindsight trading. Imagine if you can see 50% or even 60% of the answer on your exams at school lolz That's pattern trading. You already have a lot revealed and you only need to go with the remaining. There are times when they fail but you'll make much more when it go through. That is why you should take the patterns from bigger tf and enter from small tf; to reduce the risk and optimize your R.

Now wipe out those sessions' pips! and scalp the crumbs!
My threads

Patterns Observation
post148989#p148989

BONZ
post151670#p151670

MENTAL FORTIFICATION
post168148#p168148

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Re: Micro SUPPA, a trading journey?

Postby Don_xyZ » Sat Aug 13, 2022 10:39 am

As for your chart...

D1 is indeed down but it's not the prime location to make a big bang short because it's not yet at the upper trend line area. However, there is still more than enough to make a big money.

EURJPYDaily.png
EURJPYDaily.png (49.91 KiB) Viewed 1345 times


H1 is also down. There is an area I marked with the dark blue box. However, the target is a bit shaky because there is a strong zone on the left marked by the horizontal line. The price actually touched that and then reverse. This is a situation where you get a lot of pips at hand and could potentially lose all if you think the price will go further. I would hold the trade but then after I see the sharp pull back up I would close the trade settling with less than the full 75 pips. This kind of market gimmick should be in your WIL too.

EURJPYH1.png
EURJPYH1.png (84.06 KiB) Viewed 1345 times


M5 trade must be put at the start or during the forming of that red candle marked with the up arrow. The SL must be at the top of the previous candle. That said, I would have entered another trade after that big bad bearish candle that touched the box for the last time and this 2nd trade would give much more than the 1st trade. And hen I would take the trade up again because at that point, there is a potential for a megaphone pattern to form. The TP would be the obvious blue box and voila, it hit.

EURJPYM5.png
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My threads

Patterns Observation
post148989#p148989

BONZ
post151670#p151670

MENTAL FORTIFICATION
post168148#p168148

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Re: Micro SUPPA, a trading journey?

Postby Yirbu » Sat Aug 13, 2022 5:07 pm

Don_xyZ wrote:@Yirbu

Is a trade valid or not?

If you are trading patterns then you need to first observe the occurrences in the past. In general, a pattern will have an upper trend line and lower trend line that will act as support and resistance (horizontally or diagonally). I already mentioned that a pattern might have textbook form, less than ideal, crooked form and it can even morph into something else midway. The important thing is to take notice of the overall formation, does it resemble a known pattern? If yes, which one? After this, you draw the known boundaries for that pattern. After this, you watch how the price react when it's in close proximity. A reliable pattern is one found in the bigger time frame. H1 is my minimum, D1 is my best. Patterns in M1 must be dealt with cautiously and this is why trade grading is of utmost importance. What if M1 pattern contradicts H1 pattern? I will still take it. WIL is my power and it is the reason I can be so flexible and adapt to any market condition. What if H1 pattern contradicts D1 pattern? What if M1 & D1 vs H1? What if M1 & H1 vs D1?

If you are still having doubts about a particular trade then risk less. Fear should not be part of you if you have observed lots and lots of live chart (dead chart is still good but live is leaps and bounds better). Your WIL should guide you when you face situations during a live trade or even before putting a trade because WIL is based on observations and stats and personal experience dealing with so many market scenarios. You can exit partially, re-enter after x pips, use trailing SL or simply move the SL to the most recent important level/zone/swing/pattern.

The best part about trading a pattern is... it is very much predictable. Which pattern am I talking about? Western chart pattern, Elliot wave, Harmonics, Candlestick. Why? Because they are a culmination of other patterns as well. At the most extreme of the patterns or at each fractal of the pattern you will have either S/R or S/D or even both. The reason why so many people fail to optimize their gains when using S/R or S/D technique is that they are so focused on the areas while missing the big picture. That is why they arrive at their TP safely and then the price still go further only to finish the pattern (and there is actually another zone waiting at the finish line). Pattern trading is hindsight trading. Imagine if you can see 50% or even 60% of the answer on your exams at school lolz That's pattern trading. You already have a lot revealed and you only need to go with the remaining. There are times when they fail but you'll make much more when it go through. That is why you should take the patterns from bigger tf and enter from small tf; to reduce the risk and optimize your R.

Now wipe out those sessions' pips! and scalp the crumbs!


Thx Don.
I like the analogy of "hindsight" trading.
I've already got most of the pieces of the puzzle...
Like with an exam...if you have 60% of the answers it's really hard to fail.

Together with your other post, I can now see there are 3 situations for me to trade;
- From inside a developing pattern (like a triangle, enter on one extreme and hope the pattern will complete and you're in early)
- From a completed pattern (pattern is completed and you enter at the extreme of the pattern or when the extreme gets retested)
- When price is being pushed away by the pattern but price is not yet at the target (pattern is completed and price is running away)

Some things you say are extremely obvious but sometimes I just don't see them..."then risk less". Yes...off-course.
(no worries...it's not an illness...I also don't see obvious stuff in every day life...yet people still hire me for my insights and ability to solve problems)

Nice post, again it needs to sink in, but I already see things happening in my head. :)

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Re: Micro SUPPA, a trading journey?

Postby Don_xyZ » Sun Aug 14, 2022 6:00 am

Yirbu wrote:
Don_xyZ wrote:@Yirbu

Is a trade valid or not?

If you are trading patterns then you need to first observe the occurrences in the past. In general, a pattern will have an upper trend line and lower trend line that will act as support and resistance (horizontally or diagonally). I already mentioned that a pattern might have textbook form, less than ideal, crooked form and it can even morph into something else midway. The important thing is to take notice of the overall formation, does it resemble a known pattern? If yes, which one? After this, you draw the known boundaries for that pattern. After this, you watch how the price react when it's in close proximity. A reliable pattern is one found in the bigger time frame. H1 is my minimum, D1 is my best. Patterns in M1 must be dealt with cautiously and this is why trade grading is of utmost importance. What if M1 pattern contradicts H1 pattern? I will still take it. WIL is my power and it is the reason I can be so flexible and adapt to any market condition. What if H1 pattern contradicts D1 pattern? What if M1 & D1 vs H1? What if M1 & H1 vs D1?

If you are still having doubts about a particular trade then risk less. Fear should not be part of you if you have observed lots and lots of live chart (dead chart is still good but live is leaps and bounds better). Your WIL should guide you when you face situations during a live trade or even before putting a trade because WIL is based on observations and stats and personal experience dealing with so many market scenarios. You can exit partially, re-enter after x pips, use trailing SL or simply move the SL to the most recent important level/zone/swing/pattern.

The best part about trading a pattern is... it is very much predictable. Which pattern am I talking about? Western chart pattern, Elliot wave, Harmonics, Candlestick. Why? Because they are a culmination of other patterns as well. At the most extreme of the patterns or at each fractal of the pattern you will have either S/R or S/D or even both. The reason why so many people fail to optimize their gains when using S/R or S/D technique is that they are so focused on the areas while missing the big picture. That is why they arrive at their TP safely and then the price still go further only to finish the pattern (and there is actually another zone waiting at the finish line). Pattern trading is hindsight trading. Imagine if you can see 50% or even 60% of the answer on your exams at school lolz That's pattern trading. You already have a lot revealed and you only need to go with the remaining. There are times when they fail but you'll make much more when it go through. That is why you should take the patterns from bigger tf and enter from small tf; to reduce the risk and optimize your R.

Now wipe out those sessions' pips! and scalp the crumbs!


Thx Don.
I like the analogy of "hindsight" trading.
I've already got most of the pieces of the puzzle...
Like with an exam...if you have 60% of the answers it's really hard to fail.

Together with your other post, I can now see there are 3 situations for me to trade;
- From inside a developing pattern (like a triangle, enter on one extreme and hope the pattern will complete and you're in early)
- From a completed pattern (pattern is completed and you enter at the extreme of the pattern or when the extreme gets retested)
- When price is being pushed away by the pattern but price is not yet at the target (pattern is completed and price is running away)

Some things you say are extremely obvious but sometimes I just don't see them..."then risk less". Yes...off-course.
(no worries...it's not an illness...I also don't see obvious stuff in every day life...yet people still hire me for my insights and ability to solve problems)

Nice post, again it needs to sink in, but I already see things happening in my head. :)


When a trade has low grade or I see potential barrier on the way to the original target, I enter my trade at half the original size. Other times, I go full size but I'm in profit I exit when price reach that barrier. Other times, I exit half of my position and let the remaining half run to the original target. However, it's very rare that I do the exit half thing. Doubts must be settled before you enter a trade. You must know how to risk before you place your trade therefore, analyze the market condition thoroughly first to know if there is a potential hurdle or not and how big of a hurdle it is. This is all part of trade grading. How to enter a trade? Is there a backup plan for the trade? What type of backup is it? Is there a limit to the backup? If the trade fail, is there a re-entry plan? etc. etc. etc. Put your losing trades on the chart and test yourself with these questions. You'll see a whole different world. Trading with M5 is way more convenient than M1 so you won't have to drill those questions too many times in a trading session.

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My threads

Patterns Observation
post148989#p148989

BONZ
post151670#p151670

MENTAL FORTIFICATION
post168148#p168148

Image

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Don_xyZ
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Re: Micro SUPPA, a trading journey?

Postby Don_xyZ » Sun Aug 14, 2022 6:19 am

Most people struggle with determining bias, patterns can also help in that area because everybody knows where the market will go next. Well, until it doesn't. So the bias problem is mostly solved. What's left is the entry and SL and the backup plan. Your entry should not be outside of the pattern's barrier. In the example of a rectangle pattern, your sell entry must be placed in the proximity of the top barrier or where S/R / S/D exist there. For a buy entry, place the order at the bottom barrier or where S/R / S/D exist. Where is your SL? What is the backup plan? If price go up busting your sell order then check the micro bias (bias from the entry tf). If the risk makes sense take the buy trade. If not, skip. If a new potential pattern emerges, re-calibrate your bias and repeat the whole process. What if you have 2 entries, a buy and a sell position? One will obviously die. So either put SL at BE or at profit for one or both of those positions. There are also instances where both of them die but usually, this is because the market is really at a volatile time like a big news release or the pattern is too tight.

Big patterns usually attract more money because it's ridiculous to not notice them. Unless the form is too crooked. The wave created during such a pattern is usually strong and stable. This is when you harvest gold. Big continuation patterns are usually the best due to the accumulation of orders.
My threads

Patterns Observation
post148989#p148989

BONZ
post151670#p151670

MENTAL FORTIFICATION
post168148#p168148

Image

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