Today's trades. 3W 2L. My session starts at the blue line. There were other trades before that that I'd take; even if they are outside my session I mark them up as practice.
1st trade worked fine.
2nd trade worked fine.
3rd trade was a failed continuation. In the moment (and even in hindsight) it looked good, but maybe there's something I'm missing. I'm trying to understand when it's just the market and when it's an interpretation mistake.
Note on trade 3: This happened twice so far I think, and I wouldn't say it's an 'issue' but it's important to note; I can't know when the pullback really ends, so I just wait it to retrace a bit and then enter (or if the previous candle ended with a wick I'll just jump in when it breaks it). In this case it pulled back, then went up, then went down again, then up. So I got stopped out in the same entry candle.
4th trade was a fail. Bias was long for a long time so it takes some time for the SMA to change its slope. I guess that's a good thing to avoid getting caught up in a bad range. So I started following price and waited for price to go up, and down again, which happened (and by that time the SMA was sloping down), so I took the short. Failed relatively quickly and it turned into a range. That's why I didn't take the next short trigger, as it was very close to the end of the range.
5th trade worked but very tight. Not the best but worked out. It was similar to the trade I had just skipped, but it wasn't at the end of the range. There was a small room for price to go down again after the entry so I took it.
And then price kept ranging.
More observations:Some trades were ok, I think I did well not taking those 2 trades that would've been losers. There were 3W and 2L, but when I factor in the spread/commission, with the stops being tight as they are sometimes, it goes just barely above break-even.
Take a 3 pip distance to SL, targetting 1:1. It's +3 or -3, but when you count commission/spreads (let's say 1.5), it goes to -4.5 or +1.5. It turns into a 3:1, which would require a really, really high winrate to pull off (and even then the losing trades might feel 'heavier').
If I'm going to use stops this tight I
need to find a way to let them run longer, exiting them at 1:1 seems like a bad plan on those. As always, open to suggestions.
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