Aliassmith Beats a "Dead Horse"

[Yirbu]

My difficulties with gathering stats to gain confidence is that I have a hard time determining "this entry is valid, this one isn't". The entry might be executed in the same way, but context is different, and in many cases that matters a lot.

In complete opposite scenarios it might be easier to say "ah, this makes sense because in case A price was like this and in B price was like that"; but the nuances in valid/invalid scenarios that at glance look similar gets me spinning in circles me every time and would make the foundation in which I build the stats useless.

It seems that context is really important but how one views the chart is subjective. There seems to be so much information to the left when you're about to enter. I don't know. Maybe I just haven't found a way to read the chart in a consistent manner. Are there any 'chart reading methods' out there?

I try not to over-analyse.
In my report I note the usual stuff and the things I would like to know at present, like "did I interfere with the trade?", "how many R's were max?", "what kind of setup was it?". For the latter I just note if it was an inside bar, a momo etc, etc.

Also I make a screenprint of all the trades and keep it for reference. (and every day I go through my reference book )
But aren't your rules to enter a trade not clear yet?

Oh, what I did see on your chart yesterday is that if you look at the first momo candle after price crossed the sma...all of these trades would have worked. Except for 1. Unfortunately you were in that trade...

It's not easy....hope today you've had some nice trades.

[IgazI]

It seems that context is really important but how one views the chart is subjective. There seems to be so much information to the left when you're about to enter. I don't know. Maybe I just haven't found a way to read the chart in a consistent manner. Are there any 'chart reading methods' out there?

There is always a simple answer, if you are willing to accept it.

There are only two components to a chart:
1. a breakout
2. the thing behind a breakout that we refer to as a 'pattern'.

If you look behind the breakouts then you will find the pattern,
if you find the pattern then you can trade the breakout.

GBPUSD M2:

why_so_serious.png (42.58 KiB) Viewed 1410 times

get_it_got_it_good.png (26.9 KiB) Viewed 1403 times

Noticing a number of closes in a tight area is another way to identify a pattern:

another.png (30.67 KiB) Viewed 1389 times

[Jhx]

It seems that context is really important but how one views the chart is subjective. There seems to be so much information to the left when you're about to enter. I don't know. Maybe I just haven't found a way to read the chart in a consistent manner. Are there any 'chart reading methods' out there?

There is always a simple answer, if you are willing to accept it.

There are only two components to a chart:
1. a breakout
2. the thing behind a breakout that we refer to as a 'pattern'.

If you look behind the breakouts then you will find the pattern,
if you find the pattern then you can trade the breakout.

GBPUSD M2:
why_so_serious.png
get_it_got_it_good.png
Noticing a number of closes in a tight area is another way to identify a pattern:
another.png

I was marking your first chart to see if the lines had to do with price closing over or failing to close over, but it doesn't seem to be that way in all those 3.

GU_Something_probably_not.png (50.45 KiB) Viewed 1373 times

Edit: I'll leave the post as it was, but I just noticed you updated the post with "Noticing a number of closes in a tight area is another way to identify a pattern". That helps I think.

Ah, that helps. But then a breakout isn't necessarily a close over the pattern?

Could these pink areas also be patterns?

[IgazI]

Edit: I'll leave the post as it was, but I just noticed you updated the post with "Noticing a number of closes in a tight area is another way to identify a pattern". That helps I think.

Ah, that helps. But then a breakout isn't necessarily a close over the pattern?

Could these pink areas also be patterns?

You're not looking for close overs. . .
you're looking behind the breakouts to find the patterns.

- looking behind breakouts
- observing price returning to and closing within tight areas
- seeing suspected patterns reject prices

these are all ways to identify 'the something', the pattern that price is trading away from.

Do not confuse one method with another.

If you use this method on a larger chart then you can trade close overs (smaller chart) instead of taking the breakout.

[Jhx]

Edit: I'll leave the post as it was, but I just noticed you updated the post with "Noticing a number of closes in a tight area is another way to identify a pattern". That helps I think.

Ah, that helps. But then a breakout isn't necessarily a close over the pattern?

Could these pink areas also be patterns?

You're not looking for close overs. . .
you're looking behind the breakouts to find the patterns.

- looking behind breakouts
- observing price returning to and closing within tight areas
- seeing suspected patterns reject prices

these are all ways to identify 'the something', the pattern that price is trading away from.

Do not confuse one method with another.

If you use this method on a larger chart then you can trade close overs (smaller chart) instead of taking the breakout.

So price will make patterns, break out, and either:
1) come back to the pattern to break out again
2) keep going and form a new pattern elsewhere?

And so on?

[aliassmith]

To know how to capture a move you need to study the price action and structure before the move.

[Don_xyZ]

Today I was trading and ended up with 1R.
When my second trade turned south and nearly reached my SL I decided to close the trade to save one pip. Price immediately ran back up.
...I lost 1R.
Later price came back and I opened a new position which brought me up to 2R but I got out after price printed a second down candle. So...1.5R

I need to figure out how exiting works best for me. In the different threads I often read... "I exit if price stalls"....
Trade #1 was such an example. Price stalled and I got out...Maybe this comes with experience...
I'll try to see if I can review how different exits would have worked in my past trades. TRO was talking about the middots to exit. Would have turned out quite nice today.
Any other suggestions to get the most out of exiting?

220712 - EURUSDiM5.png

Exit method is abundant in this forum but I can now see what your real problems are. You lack the stats to back your confidence. If you know how an event might turn up even just 25% of the time over 1000 occurences you can already know how to react and take advantage of it. Problem is, it takes time to gather stats and thus, to build your confidence. Is there a shortcut? Yes, study the 1 minute tf like there’s no tomorrow.

My difficulties with gathering stats to gain confidence is that I have a hard time determining "this entry is valid, this one isn't". The entry might be executed in the same way, but context is different, and in many cases that matters a lot.

In complete opposite scenarios it might be easier to say "ah, this makes sense because in case A price was like this and in B price was like that"; but the nuances in valid/invalid scenarios that at glance look similar gets me spinning in circles me every time and would make the foundation in which I build the stats useless.

It seems that context is really important but how one views the chart is subjective. There seems to be so much information to the left when you're about to enter. I don't know. Maybe I just haven't found a way to read the chart in a consistent manner. Are there any 'chart reading methods' out there?

If you pay a really close attention you'll notice my charts, IgazI's and Alias' have eerily similar entries it's scary to talk about it in the dark lolz

Let me rephrase from my first post in my thread:

"...as the price move from one level to another, it will leave a trail. That trail will form a pattern."

Some patterns are textbook others are so crooked. And just I'm case you're not sure, by definition, I put western chart patterns, harmonics, candlestick, S/D, S/R, EW in the same group. They are all patterns. What is a pattern? A design that keeps repeating. So if you see something on your chart that appears over and over again then it is a pattern.

This forum is full of entries. Pick those you're comfy with and start taking your stats. Expand. Make millions.

[Yirbu]

If you pay a really close attention you'll notice my charts, IgazI's and Alias' have eerily similar entries it's scary to talk about it in the dark lolz

Let me rephrase from my first post in my thread:

"...as the price move from one level to another, it will leave a trail. That trail will form a pattern."

Some patterns are textbook others are so crooked. And just I'm case you're not sure, by definition, I put western chart patterns, harmonics, candlestick, S/D, S/R, EW in the same group. They are all patterns. What is a pattern? A design that keeps repeating. So if you see something on your chart that appears over and over again then it is a pattern.

This forum is full of entries. Pick those you're comfy with and start taking your stats. Expand. Make millions.

Yes, that makes sense to me.
Before I posted here I was reading most of the Kreslik forums obsessively. (I didn't want to be that guy that starts asking questions that have been answered a thousand times)
Unfortunately Alias threat was the last thread I started reading and I must have read it 10+ times, making mental pictures of the screenprints and setups.
I believe this is the reason that there are some patterns I recognize immediately, others I don't feel so sure about and I try not to touch them.

This post strengthens me in my believe that it's best to master one or two setups/patterns and learn to trade them as a boss before expanding my horizon.thx.

[Jhx]

Exit method is abundant in this forum but I can now see what your real problems are. You lack the stats to back your confidence. If you know how an event might turn up even just 25% of the time over 1000 occurences you can already know how to react and take advantage of it. Problem is, it takes time to gather stats and thus, to build your confidence. Is there a shortcut? Yes, study the 1 minute tf like there’s no tomorrow.

My difficulties with gathering stats to gain confidence is that I have a hard time determining "this entry is valid, this one isn't". The entry might be executed in the same way, but context is different, and in many cases that matters a lot.

In complete opposite scenarios it might be easier to say "ah, this makes sense because in case A price was like this and in B price was like that"; but the nuances in valid/invalid scenarios that at glance look similar gets me spinning in circles me every time and would make the foundation in which I build the stats useless.

It seems that context is really important but how one views the chart is subjective. There seems to be so much information to the left when you're about to enter. I don't know. Maybe I just haven't found a way to read the chart in a consistent manner. Are there any 'chart reading methods' out there?

If you pay a really close attention you'll notice my charts, IgazI's and Alias' have eerily similar entries it's scary to talk about it in the dark lolz

Let me rephrase from my first post in my thread:

"...as the price move from one level to another, it will leave a trail. That trail will form a pattern."

Some patterns are textbook others are so crooked. And just I'm case you're not sure, by definition, I put western chart patterns, harmonics, candlestick, S/D, S/R, EW in the same group. They are all patterns. What is a pattern? A design that keeps repeating. So if you see something on your chart that appears over and over again then it is a pattern.

This forum is full of entries. Pick those you're comfy with and start taking your stats. Expand. Make millions.

This post was great. One of those that I feel puts me in the right track; I need some homework to do. Thanks don.

[Yirbu]

Sooo…this was an interesting week.
I tried to trade the deadhorse to the best of my ability.
The previous week was a pretty good week for me however, only trading EU (and with my limited experience) was a bit hard as sometimes I had to wait pretty long for a setup.
I also started to watch other pairs but didn’t want to trade them because Alias said so. Last Monday I found a compromise…. I just traded EU on one account and I opened a trial account on “theproptrading”… just to see what would happen and to kill time.

The results were….interesting…

1st; did I reach the profit target of 8%? No I didn’t….I got stuck at 6.5% after trading 5 days.
Still I am happy with that. Not as godlike as you guys but hey…
Analyzing the data of this week, for me the most interesting part was that from all the pairs I traded (about the same list Alias posted recently+some more) I only managed to make profit on EU and GU. All the other pairs I traded ended in a net loss. (Except for a single EURCHF trade)
2nd; if I had only traded EU and GU I would have made the profit target after 3 days. So trading all the other pairs didn’t add value….they just held me back. Trading only EU I had 74% profitable trades. Trading all pairs I just reached 54%....

3th; (from just one week of data) my trades were not profitable at all between GMT 12:00 and 13:00
4th; Analyzing my losses, I had quite some small losses and a couple bigger losses. Most losses were losses where I had a good setup but I got out early trying to avoid a loss.
The biggest losses happened when I panicked… I went short…long, short long…I don’t know what happened in my head but I was lost for a couple of minutes.
5th: If I make a couple of big losses I am able to trade it back positive if I focus and the market wants to give.
6th; My original “only EU” account just kept going up with +/- 2% per day.

I’ll have to dive deeper into my data but I think my plan for the next week is pretty clear so I can prepare for the extreme heatwave that will be hitting Europe next week.
I want to thank everyone who has been posting stuff on the forum last week.
Nearly every post has had value for me. I loved the posts about the “patterns”. I’m not able to participate in the discussion (other than oh and ah) but that will change.
Hope you all have a nice weekend.