On a strong downtrend, the bullish zz will be pushed down over and over and over again and vice versa. So it's not the answer to your worry.
What you need is a clear market bias and the courage to take the trade based on that bias. Of course, you won't get it right 100% of the time and this is where money management steps in; to guard you against catastrophic losing streak.
Some questions you need to answer:
1. When does a bias start?
2. When is it at its prime?
3. When will it end?
4. What constitute a good bias?
5. How can you benefit from good bias?
6. How not to waste less-than-good but not-too-bad bias?
If you want to have a monstrous R, do the same but on a bigger time frame and let this big tf be the TP for your entry. So you will use the info from the big tf and enter from the small tf. Nothing fancy.
If your bias is good, you can enter a position just about anywhere (though you'll have varying R as a result). Heck, you can even enter a position while the latest candle is still midway.
Scalping: 3LZZ DSR
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Re: Scalping: 3LZZ DSR
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Re: Scalping: 3LZZ DSR
IgazI wrote:Simple analysis:
- price breaks 3 ranges and closes red.
- price breaks 3 ranges and closes lower.
- price breaks 3 ranges, rejects, closes red.
- price breaks 3 ranges, rejects, closes red.
- price breaks 3 ranges, rejects, closes red.
- price breaks 3 ranges and closes green.
I'd use a smaller chart, 1 or 2 minutes, and enter 1 + 1 + 2;
if after an entry there are 2 closes where your last entry is not in profit then exit.
Use the same reason to exit as you used to enter.
GBP_A_NAIL_SIS.png
Thanks Igazi for taking the time to mark up that chart. I now noticed I missed one entry there.
I see the rejects and closes marked in the chart, but when you mean 'ranges' are you referring to the "extreme" of those candles?
Also, any reason you use 3 for every 'set'? But I like this way of analyzing the chart.
---
By entering 1+1+2, do you mean splitting the entry in 4? And then enter at different triggers?
Re: Scalping: 3LZZ DSR
Jhx wrote:IgazI wrote:Simple analysis:
- price breaks 3 ranges and closes red.
- price breaks 3 ranges and closes lower.
- price breaks 3 ranges, rejects, closes red.
- price breaks 3 ranges, rejects, closes red.
- price breaks 3 ranges, rejects, closes red.
- price breaks 3 ranges and closes green.
I'd use a smaller chart, 1 or 2 minutes, and enter 1 + 1 + 2;
if after an entry there are 2 closes where your last entry is not in profit then exit.
Use the same reason to exit as you used to enter.
GBP_A_NAIL_SIS.png
Thanks Igazi for taking the time to mark up that chart. I now noticed I missed one entry there.
I see the rejects and closes marked in the chart, but when you mean 'ranges' are you referring to the "extreme" of those candles?
Also, any reason you use 3 for every 'set'? But I like this way of analyzing the chart.
---
By entering 1+1+2, do you mean splitting the entry in 4? And then enter at different triggers?
1+1+2 is a term IgazI used to refer to Alias' risk gearing technique. In a sense, it's a delayed parlay where you parlay the profit from the 1st trade. The first 1 is the profit from the 1st trade and you put that as your risk for the 2nd trade and that is why you have 1 as the 2nd profit and you put the 2nd profit with the original risk and as a result, you get 2 for your 3rd profit.
Trade 1
Risk 0.5%
Result: win 0.5% (1R)
Trade 2
Risk 0.5%
Result: win 0.5% (1R)
Trade 3
Risk 1%
Result: win 1% (2R)
Thus, 1+1+2
Where as traditional parlay:
Trade 1
Risk 0.5%
Result: win 0.5% (1R)
Trade 2
Risk 1%
Result: win 1% (2R)
Trade 3
Risk 2%
Result: win 2% (4R)
Thus, 1+2+4
Well, technically you only win 1R after each trade on both technique but we're looking at it from the original balance stand point.
Parlay/risk gearing is a method to put your previous profit to work so you will get bigger profit for the subsequent trades. This method allows you to achieve faster result compared to traditional compounding where you use the whole trading balance as your basis to increase your trade size. The downside of parlay is when you lose your next trade your balance will go back to the amount when you start your parlay. It's a very aggressive MM technique but it's fantastic if you have a good hit rate or if you have the ability to generate big R trades. It is damning if you have none of those because you'll keep going back to square one or worse, encounter a petrifying losing streak.
Hope it helps.
My threads
Patterns Observation
post148989#p148989
BONZ
post151670#p151670
MENTAL FORTIFICATION
post168148#p168148
Patterns Observation
post148989#p148989
BONZ
post151670#p151670
MENTAL FORTIFICATION
post168148#p168148
In Theory. . .
Jhx wrote:
Thanks Igazi for taking the time to mark up that chart. I now noticed I missed one entry there.
I see the rejects and closes marked in the chart,
but when you mean 'ranges' are you referring to the "extreme" of those candles?
Also, any reason you use 3 for every 'set'? But I like this way of analyzing the chart.
---
By entering 1+1+2, do you mean splitting the entry in 4? And then enter at different triggers?
The high to low of a price bar is a 'range',
3 ranges is the highest to lowest of the last three bars:
All price patterns are multiples of and overlapping patterns of 3;
when you join two 3's you get '5'.
Anything that breaks a pattern is, by definition, a breakout:
To scale into a trade 1 + 1 + 2 you would break your 4 lot trade into 3 entries:
- buy 1
- buy 1
- buy 2
The idea is that your position size should be correlated to the probability of a favorable price move:
there are no probabilities in trading, but it is safe to say that you can guess the direction with at least 30% accuracy,
so scaling in starting from 1/6 or 1/4 seems to be about right.
At the other end of the spectrum, you might guess the continuation of the trend with 70% accuracy,
so scaling into a position size of 2/3 is probably optimal;
that means that you would actually break your entries into 6:
- buy 1/6
- buy 1/6
- buy 2/6
& maybe over an extended move you would own 1.
Actions are separated by closes:
1 buy or sell per: 1 minute, 2 minutes, 5 minutes, 15, 20, . . .
I believe that there is a time to watch and a time to act; to try and do both is to bring instability to your thought process.
"Everything Should Be Made As Simple As Possible, But Not Simpler!"
Re: Scalping: 3LZZ DSR
Don_xyZ wrote:
1+1+2 is a term IgazI used to refer to Alias' risk gearing technique. In a sense, it's a delayed parlay where you parlay the profit from the 1st trade. The first 1 is the profit from the 1st trade and you put that as your risk for the 2nd trade and that is why you have 1 as the 2nd profit and you put the 2nd profit with the original risk and as a result, you get 2 for your 3rd profit.
...
True, whether you exit and re enter or scale into a trade, it is all the same;
the life of a trade is continuous no matter how many times you stop along the way.
"Everything Should Be Made As Simple As Possible, But Not Simpler!"
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Re: Scalping: 3LZZ DSR
IgazI wrote:Don_xyZ wrote:
1+1+2 is a term IgazI used to refer to Alias' risk gearing technique. In a sense, it's a delayed parlay where you parlay the profit from the 1st trade. The first 1 is the profit from the 1st trade and you put that as your risk for the 2nd trade and that is why you have 1 as the 2nd profit and you put the 2nd profit with the original risk and as a result, you get 2 for your 3rd profit.
...
True, whether you exit and re enter or scale into a trade, it is all the same;
the life of a trade is continuous no matter how many times you stop along the way.
Correct the 1+1+2 could be 3 separate trades or 1 continuous position. Depends on scalping vs. Swings.
Trade Your Way as Long as It Makes Money!
Re: Scalping: 3LZZ DSR
First off thanks everyone for taking the time to give all these detailed posts and explanations, I do value them a lot.
These are the two of today. I had to start around at 15:00 in the terminal time. Everything was a clear shot bias, I just couldn't get entries until the pullbacks that happened later. Or maybe I'm missing other areas as pullbacks.
The same, but with explanation on the first trade. Can't tell if that line was of any significance, just what I saw.
After a while it seemed like price wasn't going anywhere at time time. Maybe I should try Igazi's idea of exiting after 2 candle closes without profit.
The second wasn't really a 'rat' entry. To be honest I don't know what kind of entry it was. It was about to be a rat entry, but the next candle went higher but didn't close higher, and I entered at the low of the last green candle of that pullback run. Could get around 1:1 there.
These are the two of today. I had to start around at 15:00 in the terminal time. Everything was a clear shot bias, I just couldn't get entries until the pullbacks that happened later. Or maybe I'm missing other areas as pullbacks.
The same, but with explanation on the first trade. Can't tell if that line was of any significance, just what I saw.
After a while it seemed like price wasn't going anywhere at time time. Maybe I should try Igazi's idea of exiting after 2 candle closes without profit.
The second wasn't really a 'rat' entry. To be honest I don't know what kind of entry it was. It was about to be a rat entry, but the next candle went higher but didn't close higher, and I entered at the low of the last green candle of that pullback run. Could get around 1:1 there.
Re: Scalping: 3LZZ DSR
Don_xyZ wrote:Jhx wrote:IgazI wrote:Simple analysis:
- price breaks 3 ranges and closes red.
- price breaks 3 ranges and closes lower.
- price breaks 3 ranges, rejects, closes red.
- price breaks 3 ranges, rejects, closes red.
- price breaks 3 ranges, rejects, closes red.
- price breaks 3 ranges and closes green.
I'd use a smaller chart, 1 or 2 minutes, and enter 1 + 1 + 2;
if after an entry there are 2 closes where your last entry is not in profit then exit.
Use the same reason to exit as you used to enter.
GBP_A_NAIL_SIS.png
Thanks Igazi for taking the time to mark up that chart. I now noticed I missed one entry there.
I see the rejects and closes marked in the chart, but when you mean 'ranges' are you referring to the "extreme" of those candles?
Also, any reason you use 3 for every 'set'? But I like this way of analyzing the chart.
---
By entering 1+1+2, do you mean splitting the entry in 4? And then enter at different triggers?
1+1+2 is a term IgazI used to refer to Alias' risk gearing technique. In a sense, it's a delayed parlay where you parlay the profit from the 1st trade. The first 1 is the profit from the 1st trade and you put that as your risk for the 2nd trade and that is why you have 1 as the 2nd profit and you put the 2nd profit with the original risk and as a result, you get 2 for your 3rd profit.
Trade 1
Risk 0.5%
Result: win 0.5% (1R)
Trade 2
Risk 0.5%
Result: win 0.5% (1R)
Trade 3
Risk 1%
Result: win 1% (2R)
Thus, 1+1+2
Where as traditional parlay:
Trade 1
Risk 0.5%
Result: win 0.5% (1R)
Trade 2
Risk 1%
Result: win 1% (2R)
Trade 3
Risk 2%
Result: win 2% (4R)
Thus, 1+2+4
Well, technically you only win 1R after each trade on both technique but we're looking at it from the original balance stand point.
Parlay/risk gearing is a method to put your previous profit to work so you will get bigger profit for the subsequent trades. This method allows you to achieve faster result compared to traditional compounding where you use the whole trading balance as your basis to increase your trade size. The downside of parlay is when you lose your next trade your balance will go back to the amount when you start your parlay. It's a very aggressive MM technique but it's fantastic if you have a good hit rate or if you have the ability to generate big R trades. It is damning if you have none of those because you'll keep going back to square one or worse, encounter a petrifying losing streak.
Hope it helps.
This was a great explanation and looks really good, understood everything which usually doesn't happen for me on other MM strategies
I'll have to build the skill to get the good hit rate first before attempting other MM techniques. One step at a time I guess.
Re: In Theory. . .
IgazI wrote:Jhx wrote:
Thanks Igazi for taking the time to mark up that chart. I now noticed I missed one entry there.
I see the rejects and closes marked in the chart,
but when you mean 'ranges' are you referring to the "extreme" of those candles?
Also, any reason you use 3 for every 'set'? But I like this way of analyzing the chart.
---
By entering 1+1+2, do you mean splitting the entry in 4? And then enter at different triggers?
The high to low of a price bar is a 'range',
3 ranges is the highest to lowest of the last three bars:
3r.png
All price patterns are multiples of and overlapping patterns of 3;
when you join two 3's you get '5'.
Anything that breaks a pattern is, by definition, a breakout:
fractals.png
To scale into a trade 1 + 1 + 2 you would break your 4 lot trade into 3 entries:
- buy 1
- buy 1
- buy 2
The idea is that your position size should be correlated to the probability of a favorable price move:
there are no probabilities in trading, but it is safe to say that you can guess the direction with at least 30% accuracy,
so scaling in starting from 1/6 or 1/4 seems to be about right.
At the other end of the spectrum, you might guess the continuation of the trend with 70% accuracy,
so scaling into a position size of 2/3 is probably optimal;
that means that you would actually break your entries into 6:
- buy 1/6
- buy 1/6
- buy 2/6
& maybe over an extended move you would own 1.
Actions are separated by closes:
1 buy or sell per: 1 minute, 2 minutes, 5 minutes, 15, 20, . . .
I believe that there is a time to watch and a time to act; to try and do both is to bring instability to your thought process.
I have to sit down and understand this better. The position sizing and scaling I'll have to leave for later; my brain can only do so much now
IgazI wrote:All price patterns are multiples of and overlapping patterns of 3;
when you join two 3's you get '5'.
General questions about the pattern / breakout:
1) Is this to find 'confirmation' regarding direction? Or is it used for something else? I'd like to know how to use this
2) So joining three 3's gets you 7? But in which cases should patterns be 'joined'?
3) Is there a reason why patterns are multiples of 3, and not 2 or 4? Just trying to understand.
I'm looking at the current chart, finding a pattern (group of 3) which the next candle closes over (breakout). Note that I might be -way- off:
The first one (long breakout) I can see clearly. Also the next candle closes above that; but that would overlap it with the previous one.
The second one (short breakout) too.
But the third one (long breakout) where the green candle closes over, if I consider the previous breakout they start getting overlapped.
Re: Scalping: 3LZZ DSR
So this is just an observation but seems like these 'larger' candles with short wicks that close over the previous candle's extreme have nice 50% lines (from open to close) that are good for 1:1s.
Would these count as pullbacks as well? The downside I see is that it's a bit of a 'falling knife' entry.
Would these count as pullbacks as well? The downside I see is that it's a bit of a 'falling knife' entry.
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