Let's get real, Wizzle's log

[LeMercenaire]

To whoever might be reading this, your input would be appreciated on the following chart.



You can see my entry on yesterdays GBPUSD 15m chart.

My higher time frame bias was still short and my lower time frame bias/filter was short. It was a trade in accordance with my basic plan so I took it.

Notice that I took the trade quite late in the move down. Sometimes these trades work and sometimes they don't, I guess that is part of trading.
My gut feeling says these trades are lower probability, but then when they do work out they often yield a higher profit. I haven't got enough data to quantify this yet.

Thinking of adjusting the plan to only take trades that originate near the beginning of the move (the orange line on the chart).

Is there a way your guys/girls distinguish between these types of trades?Screenshot 2022-04-14 at 09.43.44.png

Yeah, I would say you missed the boat and maybe tried to jump on board some perceived MOMO.

With a cold eye, you'd see two strong MOMO candles past already and then what you could class as an indecision candle - hesitation is maybe a better way of describing it.

Even if it had continued on after it had made up it's mind, you're breaking one of MO's cardinal rules - and tbh one that I used to fight myself on as well - of entering trades in the middle (of a move/range).

Retail makes money at the edges.

Seems to me from what I've been seeing so far, that identifying this is possibly the one aspect of your method that is still needing attention, perhaps finding a way of using Mean Reversion Info - my own preferred way of dealing with it.

I think you already know this without possibly registering it formally, with your comment about how your gut feeling is that they are lower probability but when they do go your way, they can bring decent returns. Think about what I said above and you'll see how this fits the actual live action and how it can play out. One thing about mid-range trades is that they WILL always move...we just don't know which way.

Just my two cents.

Oke that all makes a lot of sense.

In regards to trading the edges, I think you are spot on there and this is what I was subconsciously working towards. Perhaps it has now become a conscious effort thanks your input. The question then becomes, how do I spot an edge/extreme?

15m Zline april1522.png
Here is a chart from yesterday, I wasn't around to trade it, but I would have definitely taken it had I been there. My entry would have been at the pullback to the orange line. In hindsight this was an extreme, but on the shorter timeframe we are roughly at the bottom of a range. Bear in mind this is only my entry timeframe, I don't use this for decision making or determining a bias, perhaps I have answered my own question here.

I marked up a H1 chart while I was typing this and it becomes a lot more evident which trade was the better one.

h1 overview of extremes.png

In regards to Mean Reversion, I am definitely open to this suggestion, I am just being very mindful at the moment to stay on track and keep my focus on lines. Do you perhaps have suggested reading on this, before I stray too far away from my track?

Speaking about being mindful and keeping my focus. I had a wick zone and a 3lvlzz template open and I just got rid of them. It felt strangely difficult to do, but now it is done it feels good!

Closing non-used but loved templates? To paraphrase screenwriter Bill Goldman: "Sometimes you need to kill your babies..."

[aliassmith]

To whoever might be reading this, your input would be appreciated on the following chart.



You can see my entry on yesterdays GBPUSD 15m chart.

My higher time frame bias was still short and my lower time frame bias/filter was short. It was a trade in accordance with my basic plan so I took it.

Notice that I took the trade quite late in the move down. Sometimes these trades work and sometimes they don't, I guess that is part of trading.
My gut feeling says these trades are lower probability, but then when they do work out they often yield a higher profit. I haven't got enough data to quantify this yet.

Thinking of adjusting the plan to only take trades that originate near the beginning of the move (the orange line on the chart).

Is there a way your guys/girls distinguish between these types of trades?Screenshot 2022-04-14 at 09.43.44.png

The thing about asking the open room about a chart is you could get 100 different answers.
I marked up the same time period you posted with what I perceive as points of interest.
The red lines are because the area is narrow.
The grey boxes are areas of interest.

If you are truly going to scalp figure out how to lose less per trade and figure out how to take a profit and not give it back.
I think I saw you had minus 12 and 19, from my point of view it seems to high on a single trade for scalping.

Also like LEM said, if you are not "comfortable" with a trades success then stay out.
There are always more trades.

Thank you for taking the time to mark up the chart. I think I see how you mark the areas and lines. Is there are particular reason the areas of interest are drawn of blue bodies and not red bodies?

Good point regarding figuring out how to lose less per trade and how to keep profit. To be honest this is something I do not understand very well and am open to suggestions. A different perspective always opens up the mind
I have spent a decent chunk of my time researching this and collected stats for a whole bunch of different methods, for example: Move to BE+X after a price has moved Y. Trailing stops. Closes against the position. Failure to close above certain levels. From my own observations, the net effect is very similar to simply having a stop and a target and let the trade run its course.

It's really only that particular section happened to be blue bodies. It's not always the bodies, wicks are valid also.
This chart shows "some" Levels of Interest. Not all are blue candles.
I am bias on the M5 charts and believe you can control risk better on them such as 3 to 10 pips

[aliassmith]

These are some examples on the M5.
If you try to get 5 pips per trade that's about 45 pips.
A semi-conservative Money Management could be 10 pips = 1%
for a 4.5% gain. (If you use a broker or prop firm with 1:20 leverage or higher)

If you have enough leverage to trade R:R based on 1% risk there was about 30R or 30% available on those trades.
I'm thinking 15R or 15% would be more likely of an outcome.

Depending on how much leverage you have and GBPUSD margin
you may need to go 15 pips = 1% for a 3% gain. (If you are using a prop firm with 1:10 leverage)
example: 100k@50%split = $3000 x .5 = $1500 or $250/hour

Then again that was about 6 hours of trading during London.

**The SL range was 1.5 to 6 pips. <---- that is how you can reduce risk
**Keep profits by not letting your downside get out of hand though Money Management
**Better trade selection and entry <--- if you are giving up an extra 3 pips on your entries you are adding risk.
**Learning to place a SL and not move it <---- keeps you out of big trouble.
**Adding to a loser when it's not in your plan <---- an account destroyer.
**You are scalping (micro swing) not looking for big moves unless it's an accident.
(price is close to your profit target and quickly moves another 5 pips in your favor and you hit close)
**When you take a loss keep going like it didn't happen, business as usual.

[Wizzlebizzle]

These are some examples on the M5.
If you try to get 5 pips per trade that's about 45 pips.
A semi-conservative Money Management could be 10 pips = 1%
for a 4.5% gain. (If you use a broker or prop firm with 1:20 leverage or higher)

If you have enough leverage to trade R:R based on 1% risk there was about 30R or 30% available on those trades.
I'm thinking 15R or 15% would be more likely of an outcome.

Depending on how much leverage you have and GBPUSD margin
you may need to go 15 pips = 1% for a 3% gain. (If you are using a prop firm with 1:10 leverage)
example: 100k@50%split = $3000 x .5 = $1500 or $250/hour

Then again that was about 6 hours of trading during London.

**The SL range was 1.5 to 6 pips. <---- that is how you can reduce risk
**Keep profits by not letting your downside get out of hand though Money Management
**Better trade selection and entry <--- if you are giving up an extra 3 pips on your entries you are adding risk.
**Learning to place a SL and not move it <---- keeps you out of big trouble.
**Adding to a loser when it's not in your plan <---- an account destroyer.
**You are scalping (micro swing) not looking for big moves unless it's an accident.
(price is close to your profit target and quickly moves another 5 pips in your favor and you hit close)
**When you take a loss keep going like it didn't happen, business as usual.

Roger on all the above, thank you.

This looks familiar from your thread. I have studied your charts before, they do look very neat and understandable. It seems u enter when price is in line with the EMA and u had a candle in the same direction (color) as the EMA for the first time and after a touch? What EMA are u using there?

Funny that you mentioned the 5 pips. I was going through my stats and it suggests I might as well take 4-7 pips instead of a higher number.

[aliassmith]

These are some examples on the M5.
If you try to get 5 pips per trade that's about 45 pips.
A semi-conservative Money Management could be 10 pips = 1%
for a 4.5% gain. (If you use a broker or prop firm with 1:20 leverage or higher)

If you have enough leverage to trade R:R based on 1% risk there was about 30R or 30% available on those trades.
I'm thinking 15R or 15% would be more likely of an outcome.

Depending on how much leverage you have and GBPUSD margin
you may need to go 15 pips = 1% for a 3% gain. (If you are using a prop firm with 1:10 leverage)
example: 100k@50%split = $3000 x .5 = $1500 or $250/hour

Then again that was about 6 hours of trading during London.

**The SL range was 1.5 to 6 pips. <---- that is how you can reduce risk
**Keep profits by not letting your downside get out of hand though Money Management
**Better trade selection and entry <--- if you are giving up an extra 3 pips on your entries you are adding risk.
**Learning to place a SL and not move it <---- keeps you out of big trouble.
**Adding to a loser when it's not in your plan <---- an account destroyer.
**You are scalping (micro swing) not looking for big moves unless it's an accident.
(price is close to your profit target and quickly moves another 5 pips in your favor and you hit close)
**When you take a loss keep going like it didn't happen, business as usual.

Roger on all the above, thank you.

This looks familiar from your thread. I have studied your charts before, they do look very neat and understandable. It seems u enter when price is in line with the EMA and u had a candle in the same direction (color) as the EMA for the first time and after a touch? What EMA are u using there?

Funny that you mentioned the 5 pips. I was going through my stats and it suggests I might as well take 4-7 pips instead of a higher number.

Might be better to get higher win rate getting 5 pips.
ATR is an indicator of volatility. I prefer to trade when ATR(12) is above 5
If you get your stats when the ATR is 8 then they are almost useless when ATR is 4.
Volatility is a correlation to how much profit/pips you should think about grabbing.

The SMA is 20

[Don_xyZ]

0. Have a bias. Without this, the rest means nothing. Get your bias from chart patterns or indicators or candles or whatever you see good.

1. Always trade the fractal. Mark them, learn each of them (because there are many different scenarios that preceed them).
2. You either take a Reversal fractal or Continuation fractal. Reversals will give you the most bang for the buck but they are very tricky to master. Continuation fractal is very convenient but offers less reward.
3. Take the nearest spot to the fractal. Look for how you can enter as near as possible or at the tip of the fractal. The wick is the best position you can get on any chart.
4. Grade the potential entry. You must have filters on this phase. A lot of future losing trades will be cut off.
5. Drag ‘em to the other time frame. Multi-time frame is where the pot of gold is. Learn to be comfortable extending the run of your profit. This is easier said than done that’s why you need to demo trade it. Most of my big profits came from optimizing my risk (risk is a subjective matter though) and extending the trade to a bigger time frame. You must position your trade well before you do this.

6 -100. The what ifs and their solutions (I’m sure you never get this advice before). A lot of my time was spent figuring out what if things don’t go textbook, this is where you should think about every other possibilities that can happen before, during, and after you exit your trade and find the solution for them.

101. Never skip your rest. Enjoy your weekend!

[Wizzlebizzle]

These are some examples on the M5.
If you try to get 5 pips per trade that's about 45 pips.
A semi-conservative Money Management could be 10 pips = 1%
for a 4.5% gain. (If you use a broker or prop firm with 1:20 leverage or higher)

If you have enough leverage to trade R:R based on 1% risk there was about 30R or 30% available on those trades.
I'm thinking 15R or 15% would be more likely of an outcome.

Depending on how much leverage you have and GBPUSD margin
you may need to go 15 pips = 1% for a 3% gain. (If you are using a prop firm with 1:10 leverage)
example: 100k@50%split = $3000 x .5 = $1500 or $250/hour

Then again that was about 6 hours of trading during London.

**The SL range was 1.5 to 6 pips. <---- that is how you can reduce risk
**Keep profits by not letting your downside get out of hand though Money Management
**Better trade selection and entry <--- if you are giving up an extra 3 pips on your entries you are adding risk.
**Learning to place a SL and not move it <---- keeps you out of big trouble.
**Adding to a loser when it's not in your plan <---- an account destroyer.
**You are scalping (micro swing) not looking for big moves unless it's an accident.
(price is close to your profit target and quickly moves another 5 pips in your favor and you hit close)
**When you take a loss keep going like it didn't happen, business as usual.

Roger on all the above, thank you.

This looks familiar from your thread. I have studied your charts before, they do look very neat and understandable. It seems u enter when price is in line with the EMA and u had a candle in the same direction (color) as the EMA for the first time and after a touch? What EMA are u using there?

Funny that you mentioned the 5 pips. I was going through my stats and it suggests I might as well take 4-7 pips instead of a higher number.

Might be better to get higher win rate getting 5 pips.
ATR is an indicator of volatility. I prefer to trade when ATR(12) is above 5
If you get your stats when the ATR is 8 then they are almost useless when ATR is 4.
Volatility is a correlation to how much profit/pips you should think about grabbing.

The SMA is 20

Thank you Alias, will have a closer look after work.

[Don_xyZ]

These are some examples on the M5.
If you try to get 5 pips per trade that's about 45 pips.
A semi-conservative Money Management could be 10 pips = 1%
for a 4.5% gain. (If you use a broker or prop firm with 1:20 leverage or higher)

If you have enough leverage to trade R:R based on 1% risk there was about 30R or 30% available on those trades.
I'm thinking 15R or 15% would be more likely of an outcome.

Depending on how much leverage you have and GBPUSD margin
you may need to go 15 pips = 1% for a 3% gain. (If you are using a prop firm with 1:10 leverage)
example: 100k@50%split = $3000 x .5 = $1500 or $250/hour

Then again that was about 6 hours of trading during London.
A
**The SL range was 1.5 to 6 pips. <---- that is how you can reduce risk
**Keep profits by not letting your downside get out of hand though Money Management
**Better trade selection and entry <--- if you are giving up an extra 3 pips on your entries you are adding risk.
**Learning to place a SL and not move it <---- keeps you out of big trouble.
**Adding to a loser when it's not in your plan <---- an account destroyer.
**You are scalping (micro swing) not looking for big moves unless it's an accident.
(price is close to your profit target and quickly moves another 5 pips in your favor and you hit close)
**When you take a loss keep going like it didn't happen, business as usual.

This particular chart is very good.



Serves as a good example for my previous post above.

[aliassmith]

These are some examples on the M5.
If you try to get 5 pips per trade that's about 45 pips.
A semi-conservative Money Management could be 10 pips = 1%
for a 4.5% gain. (If you use a broker or prop firm with 1:20 leverage or higher)

If you have enough leverage to trade R:R based on 1% risk there was about 30R or 30% available on those trades.
I'm thinking 15R or 15% would be more likely of an outcome.

Depending on how much leverage you have and GBPUSD margin
you may need to go 15 pips = 1% for a 3% gain. (If you are using a prop firm with 1:10 leverage)
example: 100k@50%split = $3000 x .5 = $1500 or $250/hour

Then again that was about 6 hours of trading during London.
A
**The SL range was 1.5 to 6 pips. <---- that is how you can reduce risk
**Keep profits by not letting your downside get out of hand though Money Management
**Better trade selection and entry <--- if you are giving up an extra 3 pips on your entries you are adding risk.
**Learning to place a SL and not move it <---- keeps you out of big trouble.
**Adding to a loser when it's not in your plan <---- an account destroyer.
**You are scalping (micro swing) not looking for big moves unless it's an accident.
(price is close to your profit target and quickly moves another 5 pips in your favor and you hit close)
**When you take a loss keep going like it didn't happen, business as usual.

This particular chart is very good.



Serves as a good example for my previous post above.

In your previous post you mentioned fractals. Are you refering to the indicator? I just put that on my chart so I can remember when I get time to study the relationships.

Looks like our basic scalp trades are similar.

[Don_xyZ]

These are some examples on the M5.
If you try to get 5 pips per trade that's about 45 pips.
A semi-conservative Money Management could be 10 pips = 1%
for a 4.5% gain. (If you use a broker or prop firm with 1:20 leverage or higher)

If you have enough leverage to trade R:R based on 1% risk there was about 30R or 30% available on those trades.
I'm thinking 15R or 15% would be more likely of an outcome.

Depending on how much leverage you have and GBPUSD margin
you may need to go 15 pips = 1% for a 3% gain. (If you are using a prop firm with 1:10 leverage)
example: 100k@50%split = $3000 x .5 = $1500 or $250/hour

Then again that was about 6 hours of trading during London.
A
**The SL range was 1.5 to 6 pips. <---- that is how you can reduce risk
**Keep profits by not letting your downside get out of hand though Money Management
**Better trade selection and entry <--- if you are giving up an extra 3 pips on your entries you are adding risk.
**Learning to place a SL and not move it <---- keeps you out of big trouble.
**Adding to a loser when it's not in your plan <---- an account destroyer.
**You are scalping (micro swing) not looking for big moves unless it's an accident.
(price is close to your profit target and quickly moves another 5 pips in your favor and you hit close)
**When you take a loss keep going like it didn't happen, business as usual.

This particular chart is very good.



Serves as a good example for my previous post above.

In your previous post you mentioned fractals. Are you refering to the indicator? I just put that on my chart so I can remember when I get time to study the relationships.

Looks like our basic scalp trades are similar.

Fractals indicator (3 candles) depicts exactly the pointy tops and bottoms of a move. Yes. But some times it failed to identify them also. So your eyes will serve as a better indicator to identify them. This fractals is individualistic, it’s dangerous. So no, this is not the fractals I’m talking about.