Aliassmith Beats a "Dead Horse"

[LeMercenaire]

Welcome aboard. Good to have you here and appreciate you posting.

How about you tell us a little about the techniques you are using? Micro Supply + Demand?

Thank you for your reply.

Hmm, in a nutshell
-Define an area I want to watch price 'react'. i.e. The yellow line in my chart, I get alerted so I don't have to sit and stare. Generally this is what I've seen others call 'pointy' areas. Often its just simple S/R.

-Once alerted, I observe the price action (PA) on a touch of that defined area. I am also interested to see how price approached, and I do look through the lens of supply + demand, but on the smaller time frames, I am also just eyeballing the size of candles relative to the recent past.

-The type of reaction PA I am looking for are Engulfs / Pin Bars, one in the same depending on the timeframe.

-If there is space to get into a 3R trade I will drop down to a lower time frame to see what's going on there and will look for price patterns (ask myself questions "is it a rising wedge into an area of resistance that has broken south?" for example..), s/r, supply + demand, anywhere I can comfortable place a trade and have some degree of confidence the stop loss won't be immediately taken (this still happens regardless of my good intentions of course)

I applied these steps just now, and put on a set and forget trade on the EA at the same area of resistance.

EURAUD M30-M5 2020-09-29_0-23-42.png

You can see how long the pin bar is on this M30 chart. If I traded at the close of that candle on that time frame, I would have a 30 pip stop loss, and then would have to see if its possible to have a 90 pip take profit in line with my 3R goal. The probability just seems so low on average for that type of trade. But I want a piece of that PA so I drilled down to the M1/M5 and was driven by the possibility of price revisiting resistance and coming back down to the bottom of the range for my Take Profit. It doesn't always work out as neatly as this!

Had price touched the lower purple zone before it came up to my entry. I would have cancelled the order. Lots of nuance to reading the market and I am still learning everyday.

Lovely. Pure price movement analysis. Classic stuff.

It may be that - if you don't do so already - adding an awareness of Z-Lines would fit into your way of working. Just a thought.

[LeMercenaire]

The Dead Horse would have had a storming day running on Cable today, even on the conservative second clear set-up candle.

Entry 09.30 UK time.

GBPUSDM15stormeronCableForTheDeadHorseToday28thSept2020entry09.30.png (39.74 KiB) Viewed 2238 times

[aliassmith]

EURUSDM5
Long with 2R
Scalp 3.5 pips

Wierd that was a 14 MA.
I am thinking that fib numbers are probably common or close to common numbers that are used.
3,5,8,13,21,34,55,89,144,233
and 20,30,50, and 200 are popular.

[LeMercenaire]

EURUSDM5
Long with 2R
Scalp 3.5 pips

Wierd that was a 14 MA.
I am thinking that fib numbers are probably common or close to common numbers that are used.
3,5,8,13,21,34,55,89,144,233
and 20,30,50, and 200 are popular.

Same move on that Cable play with Kijun-sen (21) + 200 sma.

Used in combination with base Dead Horse indi ma, it is unbeatable.

GBPUSDM15samemovewithKijun-senand200ma28thsept2020crop.png (33.02 KiB) Viewed 2233 times

[aliassmith]

EURUSDM5
Long with 2R
Scalp 3.5 pips

Wierd that was a 14 MA.
I am thinking that fib numbers are probably common or close to common numbers that are used.
3,5,8,13,21,34,55,89,144,233
and 20,30,50, and 200 are popular.

Same move on that Cable play with Kijun-sen (21) + 200 sma.

Used in combination with base Dead Horse indi ma, it is unbeatable.

GBPUSDM15samemovewithKijun-senand200ma28thsept2020crop.png

Lem,
I put the Kijun-sen on my chart to try and see a benefit. Will you explain what you see when you use it?
I see that it shows similar to what the 20SMA shows.

[LeMercenaire]

EURUSDM5
Long with 2R
Scalp 3.5 pips

Wierd that was a 14 MA.
I am thinking that fib numbers are probably common or close to common numbers that are used.
3,5,8,13,21,34,55,89,144,233
and 20,30,50, and 200 are popular.

Same move on that Cable play with Kijun-sen (21) + 200 sma.

Used in combination with base Dead Horse indi ma, it is unbeatable.

GBPUSDM15samemovewithKijun-senand200ma28thsept2020crop.png

Lem,
I put the Kijun-sen on my chart to try and see a benefit. Will you explain what you see when you use it?
I see that it shows similar to what the 20SMA shows.

Investopedia explains the differences better than I ever could.

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/k/kijunsen.asp

For me, what I find is that using it in the same way as the full Ichimoku Cloud, you get a much earlier signal of change in MOMO as you will get the angle of attack changing much more precisely. You see the difference in real time where it is not so apparent in the fixed position after the fact of historical charts.

I have looked at keeping the Tenkan-san also but although it should in theory help, I don't actually find it does.

Thinking about it now...the one other big plus is purely the way it is used in the Ichimoku Cloud, that is, when the line flattens out, it shows indecision, whereas an ma would just stay showing whatever general direction.

This gives you a good idea of where you can look at adding in, for instance.

I would say that to get the best out of it, you do need to understand how to use the Ichimoku Cloud properly and if you don't, then maybe you are as well simply using the original ma.

[aliassmith]

Same move on that Cable play with Kijun-sen (21) + 200 sma.

Used in combination with base Dead Horse indi ma, it is unbeatable.

GBPUSDM15samemovewithKijun-senand200ma28thsept2020crop.png

Lem,
I put the Kijun-sen on my chart to try and see a benefit. Will you explain what you see when you use it?
I see that it shows similar to what the 20SMA shows.

Investopedia explains the differences better than I ever could.

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/k/kijunsen.asp

For me, what I find is that using it in the same way as the full Ichimoku Cloud, you get a much earlier signal of change in MOMO as you will get the angle of attack changing much more precisely. You see the difference in real time where it is not so apparent in the fixed position after the fact of historical charts.

I have looked at keeping the Tenkan-san also but although it should in theory help, I don't actually find it does.

Thinking about it now...the one other big plus is purely the way it is used in the Ichimoku Cloud, that is, when the line flattens out, it shows indecision, whereas an ma would just stay showing whatever general direction.

This gives you a good idea of where you can look at adding in, for instance.

I would say that to get the best out of it, you do need to understand how to use the Ichimoku Cloud properly and if you don't, then maybe you are as well simply using the original ma.

So you are using the flats and slopes of the kijun sen as information?

[aliassmith]

Nice little almost 3R long

[LeMercenaire]

Lem,
I put the Kijun-sen on my chart to try and see a benefit. Will you explain what you see when you use it?
I see that it shows similar to what the 20SMA shows.

Investopedia explains the differences better than I ever could.

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/k/kijunsen.asp

For me, what I find is that using it in the same way as the full Ichimoku Cloud, you get a much earlier signal of change in MOMO as you will get the angle of attack changing much more precisely. You see the difference in real time where it is not so apparent in the fixed position after the fact of historical charts.

I have looked at keeping the Tenkan-san also but although it should in theory help, I don't actually find it does.

Thinking about it now...the one other big plus is purely the way it is used in the Ichimoku Cloud, that is, when the line flattens out, it shows indecision, whereas an ma would just stay showing whatever general direction.

This gives you a good idea of where you can look at adding in, for instance.

I would say that to get the best out of it, you do need to understand how to use the Ichimoku Cloud properly and if you don't, then maybe you are as well simply using the original ma.

So you are using the flats and slopes of the kijun sen as information?

Yes. The Kijun-sen is - to me - the distilled essence of the Ichimoku Cloud, which uses flat-spots to show that there is indecision or at the very least, lack of MOMO.

[aliassmith]

EURUSDM5
Short for 4R move I was thinking it might go to 5R but I'll take my profit now thanks
Entry was on the break of the small red candle before the move short