News and Analysis

everything that doesn't belong elsewhere cometh here

Moderator: moderators

SFX_Official
rank: 50+ posts
rank: 50+ posts
Posts: 74
Joined: Wed Jul 12, 2017 2:36 pm
Reputation: 25
Gender: None specified

USD / CHF technical analysis

Postby SFX_Official » Thu Sep 14, 2017 3:14 pm

At the moment, the pair is trading in the 0.9450 - 0.9775 corridor located at Fibo levels of 0.00 and 38.2. respectively.
Now we see that the pair found a resistance level from above and went from it back to the values of 0.9550 and 09450.
Despite the decision on the interest rate of the Swiss bank, our pair is trading without much acceleration and, once again testing the resistance level from above, returned to the corridor.
We can observe a possible acceleration of this instrument after the release of data on the consumer price index in the US at 15.30 (GMT +3). So at the moment, based on our technical levels, we can take a position after the release of news that could help strengthen the dollar. Now the price is testing the resistance level of 0.9655 and is likely to seek a level of 0.9775.
The RSI indicator has not yet reached the oversold level and indicates an upward movement to us.
Support and resistance levels: 0.9450 0.9550 0.9655 0.9775

Image
Last edited by SFX_Official on Fri Sep 15, 2017 12:56 pm, edited 1 time in total.

Please add www.kreslik.com to your ad blocker white list.
Thank you for your support.

SFX_Official
rank: 50+ posts
rank: 50+ posts
Posts: 74
Joined: Wed Jul 12, 2017 2:36 pm
Reputation: 25
Gender: None specified

A new wave of tension

Postby SFX_Official » Fri Sep 15, 2017 12:55 pm

North Korea conducted a nuclear test again
This morning on September 15, Japan stated that North Korea once again conducted nuclear tests and the missile flew over the northeastern part of the country. At the same time, South Korea also conducted military exercises, firing a rocket at sea. Earlier, after the new sanctions imposed by the UN on North Korea, their leader Kim Jong-un promised to flood Japan and turn the US into "ash and darkness" and accelerated the testing of nuclear weapons.
US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson exerts pressure on China to preserve the oil embargo, which is quite a powerful tool of pressure. However, China can limit trade relations on an official level, but can not deter smugglers, which hamper the pressure on the Kim Jong-un regime.
This news caused a lively sale of assets and sent investors to search for a quiet harbor.
This time, the markets reacted more calmly to this news and volatility weakened much faster than the previous week.
The dollar again continues the upward movement after corrective movement relative to the Yen.
The pound is traded at the level of annual highs against the dollar and may soon begin the corrective movement, after yesterday's sharp jump. Talks about possible increase in the interest rate in the coming months for a decade sounded on the meeting of the Committee on Monetary Policy. Such data was regarded positively by traders, which gave a sharp push to the British currency. And breaking through the strong resistance levels has reached new annual highs. On Friday we are expecting a fixation of profits and that the price will depart from the current values.
Image

SFX_Official
rank: 50+ posts
rank: 50+ posts
Posts: 74
Joined: Wed Jul 12, 2017 2:36 pm
Reputation: 25
Gender: None specified

GBP/CAD Technical Outlook after the Channel Breaking Out

Postby SFX_Official » Mon Sep 18, 2017 1:50 pm

The GBP/CAD is ahead of 1.6611 and 1.6850 after breaking the channel.
In our recent report about the GBP/CAD currency pair we recommended selling the pair and the prices already hit our first target at 1.5927 to make a profit of +220 pips, then the pair returned back to break the price channel and the resistance level last Thursday.
The price channel which we were trading inside was strong because it has 5 tops and 4 bottoms, so when the prices broke upwards from it, the pair rose more on Friday to trade now around 1.6525. The prices recorded the highest level on Friday at 1.6574, close to the resistance level at 1.6611. We expect the price to reach the resistance and make new highs but we have to be careful in case the pair makes a price action pattern on the resistance area. The MACD indicator gave us the buy signal last week.
The Next Few Days
After we saw the prices break up the price channel we should only think of buy orders, as there are no sell opportunities anymore in these levels. We can take a buy position now at the current level 1.6523 and keep our first target at 50% Fibonacci at 1.6850, and the second one at 1.7050. We can take another buy order if the pair declined to the moving average 50 on the daily chart.
Bank of England governor Carney will speak today at the Central Banking Lecture hosted by the International Monetary Fund in Washington, DC and we have the retail sales from the UK on Wednesday, in addition to the CPI and retail sales from Canada on Friday, so we have to be careful due to the news this week.

Image

SFX_Official
rank: 50+ posts
rank: 50+ posts
Posts: 74
Joined: Wed Jul 12, 2017 2:36 pm
Reputation: 25
Gender: None specified

GBP/JPY Technical Analysis before BoJ Policy Rate

Postby SFX_Official » Tue Sep 19, 2017 1:00 pm

The GBP/JPY rally will continue after retesting the broken level.
The GBP/JPY rally hasn’t finished yet. The pair recorded its highest prices in more than 14 months after the Brexit vote on June 23 last year. The pair had a strong resistance area at 147.93, which it tried to break three times before and failed in December, May and last July, but this month is different because the pair broke it up last Friday.
The pair is now trading at 150.65, above the support area and the trend line. Last month the pair broke the trend line down but it found the support area which we mentioned before and failed to break it, then we noticed rising bottoms before coming back to trade above the line. Yesterday the pair moved up and down and then closed its candle a little bit below the opening price, so prices could visit the broken area 147.95-148.25 again to retest it and then will go up.
The Next Few Days
The next few days we won’t think about selling the GBP/JPY pair, only buy it. The prices are now in the middle between support and resistance areas, so we can take a buy order now with a small lot and take another buy order when it retests the broken area around 148.00 or the trend line or the moving average 50, keeping our targets at 152.80.
This week the markets don’t offer much hot news from the UK, except for the retail sales data tomorrow. We also have something important on Thursday this week - the Bank of Japan’s decision about the policy rate, which is expected no change at -0.10%.
Image

SFX_Official
rank: 50+ posts
rank: 50+ posts
Posts: 74
Joined: Wed Jul 12, 2017 2:36 pm
Reputation: 25
Gender: None specified

CAD / JPY technical analysis

Postby SFX_Official » Wed Sep 20, 2017 12:42 pm

At the moment, on the chart of H4, we see the return of prices in the framework of the rising channel. Drawn for 28 days.
Given the recently published positive statistics for Canada, we can assume that our upward movement will continue and at the moment we are seeing a correction and revision of the positions by bulls that decided to fix the profit.
On the daily chart, we have not yet seen the figures of absorption and the reversal pattern. But on the chart H4 appeared "shooting star", which can signal us about a possible correction. And the ability to draw a "head and shoulders" figure, with a shoulder level in the area of ​​88.90.
But looking at the overall schedule and considering the overall movement, the recommendation is to look for points to enter the long position at support levels.
Support and resistance levels
87.72
88.35
88.89
89.50
90.10
90.90
Image

Please add www.kreslik.com to your ad blocker white list.
Thank you for your support.

SFX_Official
rank: 50+ posts
rank: 50+ posts
Posts: 74
Joined: Wed Jul 12, 2017 2:36 pm
Reputation: 25
Gender: None specified

GBP/EUR Technical analysis

Postby SFX_Official » Thu Sep 21, 2017 2:06 pm

The pair is moving within a downward trend.
At this moment the pair is trading in a down trend, slowing down near its resistance levels. We can also note that against the backdrop of strong data, the pair can quickly overcome the nearby resistance levels, as it happened after the press conference of the Bank of England, against which the pound sharply increased its quotes.
Today at 4.30 pm (GMT +3), ECB President Mario Draghi is expected to speak at a press conference. It is necessary to closely monitor the investor sentiment, as many feel that the euro will be pressured and our pair will continue the downward movement.
Our advice for you is to set medium goals and small stop-loss orders.
Support and resistance levels:
0.8880
0.8825
0.8780
0.8715
Image

SFX_Official
rank: 50+ posts
rank: 50+ posts
Posts: 74
Joined: Wed Jul 12, 2017 2:36 pm
Reputation: 25
Gender: None specified

German Elections 2017

Postby SFX_Official » Fri Sep 22, 2017 12:58 pm

Germans will be electing a new government this Sunday - how would that affect Europe?
Recently global news have been almost monopolized by three topics: the tensions between the United States and North Korea, natural disasters striking one after another, and the recent Federal Reserve meeting and talks of monetary policy changes around the world. One could hardly tell that there is something else very important going on this week: parliamentary elections in Germany.
Why aren’t media talking about the German elections? After all, the elections in France this spring, as well as the British preliminary elections received a lot of news coverage when they were happening. The most likely explanation is that the results of the German elections are not likely to be very surprising. The current Chancellor of Germany Angela Merkel still enjoys a stable level of support and is a respected global leader, so most polls indicate that her party would easily win these elections. However, it still is worth it to take a look at German politics, because anything that changes there has the potential to affect the European Union and European markets greatly.
While it is true that Merkel will probably win herself a fourth mandate as chancellor, it is important to note that more parties are expected to make the cut this time. Likely we would see six parties enter the Bundestag. Six voices pulling in different directions is bound to make things more difficult and even slow down Germany, hindering its ability to continue to act as a global political leader.
While immigration seems to be on everybody’s mind and is central to debates between candidates, the number of asylum seekers has dramatically dropped in 2017 compared to previous years. There are other issues on the table such as labour, pensions, education, and more – and they can all affect the way Germany’s economy works – and the way Germany participates in the European Union.
One of the most important things to watch out for in these elections is how the Alternative fuer Deutschland party would do. The far-right political party, often labeled as modern-day nazis, is very conservative and outspoken about its strong stance on immigration: they feel that trying to harbor Muslim refugees and integrate them into European society is a lost cause and oppose the current lax immigration policy of Germany that is championed by Merkel. So far Germany has been the leader in the refugee crisis, encouraging countries to accept and help refugees. This issue is close to the hearts of Germans, as they found themselves in a similar position during World War II – they know what it is like to be a refugee, and they also know what it feels like to be mistaken for a terrorist (or a nazi), just because of your origin. That is why Germany has always maintained that it would extend a helping hand to those in need. However, as the number of terrorist attacks around Europe increases, many people begin to fear for their safety, and other countries, such as France, have called for stricter immigration policies in order to increase safety. This brings us back to the AfD: nazis have not been in power in Germany since World War II, but over the past few years they seem to have gathered a lot of support. It is expected that they may reap as much as 10% of the vote in these elections, securing them a comfortable section of the German Parliament. This means that they would have a say in German politics, and when dissenting views clash in parliament, the stability of a country suffers, as does its ability to act (just look at how poorly the UK is handling Brexit, simply due to a lack of majority in parliament).
Overall, change is coming to Germany, even if Merkel is re-elected. And with that, change will invariably come to the eurozone as well.
Image

SFX_Official
rank: 50+ posts
rank: 50+ posts
Posts: 74
Joined: Wed Jul 12, 2017 2:36 pm
Reputation: 25
Gender: None specified

EUR/JPY Technical Outlook & Daily Chart

Postby SFX_Official » Mon Sep 25, 2017 12:14 pm

After breaking the channel we are still waiting for the Moving Average of the pair.
Since the EUR/JPY pair broke down the price channel last month, it is still fighting to make new highs below the channel. The pair retested it a few times before, the last one happening the previous week when the pair reached the resistance area 134.40-50 and now it has been declining for two days to trade at 133.12.
In our previous article about the pair we said that we would sell the pair once it broke the moving average down, but the pair didn’t make it. Instead, it just touched the MA and back to rise again. That is why up until now we could not take buy positions - because the pair couldn’t break above the resistance level and the stochastic indicator had been giving us the sell signal. Now we have a strong support area at the SMA 50 at 132.31.
The Next Few Days
Based on this simple analysis of the pair, after retesting the channel we are going to sell the pair at the current level 133.12 and keep our target at 132.35. We are going to wait for the SMA breaking down, then we can sell again below 131.30 and our target for this trade will be at 126.50. However, this whole scenario depends on the pair still trading below the resistance level 134.50.
This week the market doesn’t bring any hot news from the European Union or Japan, except the speeches of the Central Bank's president Draghi today and Friday, and Bank of Japan governor Kuroda on Thursday.
Image

SFX_Official
rank: 50+ posts
rank: 50+ posts
Posts: 74
Joined: Wed Jul 12, 2017 2:36 pm
Reputation: 25
Gender: None specified

Oil Prices Recovering

Postby SFX_Official » Tue Sep 26, 2017 12:24 pm

Analysts feel that for the first time in two years oil prices are on their way to recovery.
Last week the prices of oil (and other commodities) suffered somewhat due to a strengthening of the American dollar caused by last week’s Federal Reserve policy meeting. However, despite the noticeable decrease, the price of oil still didn’t fall to dangerous levels and remained relatively stable.
Now analysts are saying that the oil market is heading towards a stabilization, and is perhaps approaching the resolution of the oil crisis of the past two years. This year OPEC as well as non-members who are oil exporters such as Russia have managed to cut down their production dramatically, which helped alleviate the oversupply on the market for crude oil. As a result, the price of oil went up by 15% in recent months.
American crude oil is currently at around $50.51, while London brent crude oil is trading around the $56 mark. It’s worth noting that oil extraction in the United States was previously affected by a series of natural disasters that hit the North American coastlines.


Image

SFX_Official
rank: 50+ posts
rank: 50+ posts
Posts: 74
Joined: Wed Jul 12, 2017 2:36 pm
Reputation: 25
Gender: None specified

EUR/SGD: Fundamental Review & Forecast

Postby SFX_Official » Wed Sep 27, 2017 1:06 pm

The results from the elections in Germany negatively impacted the EUR, though it still has a potential for stabilizing.
Starting from Monday, September 25 the euro came under pressure due to the election results in Germany. The ruling party together with Angela Merkel won the election, but with the lowest result since 1949. They are not able to form a coalition easily, as it happened at previous elections. However, other parties also cannot form a coalition themselves, which is why nobody doubts that Angela Merkel will again be Chancellor. Nevertheless, it is expected that negotiations on creating a coalition will be difficult because the former coalition partners do not want to continue their cooperation. In any case, the opposition will be stronger than ever, so investors prefer at the moment to invest in other assets.
On the other hand, the Singaporean dollar has been supported this week due to the recent data about the volume of manufacturing production in August, which exceeded the forecasts of investors both in annual and monthly terms, although the growth has been less rapid than in the previous month and amounted to +19.1% against the expected 14.2% YoY.
On the EUR/SGD chart we can see the formation of a weak downward trend which forms after a steady flat period. The support line shifts down, but now we have also a high probability of a price correction. After the market reacted to the elections in Germany and took into account the probability of political uncertainty in Germany, the euro still has a potential for stabilizing in price and strengthening. Market volatility will be lower next week, after an intense news period. In the near future we can expect data about the business activity index (PMI) from Singapore and about the volume of retail sales in the EU.
In this situation the most optimal course of action would be the deals to BUY in short-term trading, which is confirmed by the MACD oscillator. Nevertheless, the probability of the continuation of the new downtrend in favor of the SGD is preserved in the medium term.
Image

Please add www.kreslik.com to your ad blocker white list.
Thank you for your support.


Return to “general”