Libertarians take on trading

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Libertarian
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Re: Libertarians take on trading

Postby Libertarian » Fri Sep 01, 2017 10:07 pm

Hello Kreslik, I've been rereading the whole *censored - swear word* place and actually sitting and thinking about all of the stuff shown here. I have to say, I have made more progress in the last 6 months than the previous 6 years. I really appreciate v8 power's attitude. It really put me in the right frame of mind and has allowed me to start to turn the sinking ship around. I will say, it hasn't helped having my 3rd child during this time (all under 4.5). Anyway, I'm not done, I'm still reading, there is a few more threads I want to read through before I can contribute here on Kreslik. I just wanted to document this one for my own sake, its been pretty frustrating. I'm a grain merchant IRL, and I trade canola. We'll this was a setup I've been watching for sometime and so far its been ugly.

This is the chart I'm trading

RSX big.PNG
This is the chart I'm trading
RSX big.PNG (53.27 KiB) Viewed 3435 times


First trade, trying to place and trade a stop on a big chart. MO on first touch of Mo zone 50% (gold line)

trade 1.PNG
trade 1.PNG (50.3 KiB) Viewed 3435 times


Second attempt to capture the extreme. MO after touch of ZL (green line). Trade was with D1 color, and D1 closed green.

trade 2.PNG
trade 2.PNG (43.66 KiB) Viewed 3435 times


Space is dwindling. Send help. How to risk less space and still catch the move, always the issue, because I missed the move up, even though it was right where i wanted it because I was waiting for the perfect BDP/wick doll and it never came.

Here is what I mean
Tried this.PNG
Tried this.PNG (27.42 KiB) Viewed 3435 times

Should add that the D1 closed lower than the extreme which hurt my confidence to stick with the trade.
Tried this trade.PNG
Tried this trade.PNG (62.77 KiB) Viewed 3435 times


Back to the lab again yo

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Postby Jalarupa » Wed Sep 06, 2017 5:29 pm

Image

Maybe my recent analysis on the subject of extremes (incorporating everything I know about PA thanks to this forum) will help you?

I'm basically outlining the price formation and positive reinforcing moves that extend conviction in the idea of an extreme... That, or I'm really high and the only I can communicate with you is by blinking my eyes...

:|
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Re: Libertarians take on trading

Postby Libertarian » Thu Sep 07, 2017 4:02 pm

Just an update to this trade. I took a 3rd crack at this. Lost my space. I know in the real space world I would have been able to reinflate my space, so I got that going for me, which is nice... (Caddyshack reference :lol:)

RSX.PNG
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Re: Libertarians take on trading

Postby MightyOne » Sat Sep 09, 2017 4:24 pm

'Space' as it was previously explained was too difficult to understand: no one knew how to properly size a risk box or adjust its size to make the most out of their trades.

Today we still use a risk box (total risk) but we divide it into 8 segments the width of which is determined by the average hourly movement of the pair and the chart period that you are trading:
H1: 38.2% of average = x: H4: x * 2, Daily: x * 4, Weekly: x * 8, Monthly: x * 16

Take a minute to understand how trading the H4 chart would change the attached chart where 1 segment of risk is 76.4% of the average range; your stop is now twice as far away from the entry level and your maximum short entry area ("or here") would be another line lower so there would be no need for '*'.
The greater the average range that a segment consumes the larger the chart that one must be trading because it takes larger ranges to pass through each space.

The picture should say 38.2%, not .382% #-o
for_libby.png
for_libby.png (103.26 KiB) Viewed 3279 times


If you put $200 in the box then what is your risk? Trick question! The risk is the box, but for our mental health we just say that our risk is what we put into the box at the very beginning.

Since the box is divided into 8 segments ('lines'), each line gained will increase your trade size by 12.5% (9/8):
$200 + $25, new risk per line (9/8)25 or as close as you can get to $28.125, 8 x $28.125 = a $225 box.

+4 lines is then (12/8)$28.125, etc.

What happens if you lose 2.5 lines? If you only wanted to risk 2 then you have 5.5 of 6 lines (8 - 2) so you adjust
your line value to (5.5/6)28.125 or $25.781 and now you have 6 lines.
If you gained 4 lines then you could be aggressive and divide the money into 6 segments:
6 + 4 lines = 10, (10/6)25.781 = 6 lines of $42.968

You are down to .75 lines and you need 2.5 lines to get back to business, do you reach in your pocket for another $200? Hellz to the no!
(.75/2.5)42.968 = 2.5 lines of $12.89; it is a smaller size than you started with but a few good wins and you'll be back in the races.

Don't worry about c-ck swinging, the swing will come:
focus on your money and what you need to do, not what other people are doing.

Code: Select all

What would happen if your first objective of the day was to absorb 2 lines?:

Day 00: $25/line ($200 in the box)
Day 01: $31 ($250)
Day 02: $39 ($312)
Day 03: $48 ($390)
Day 04: $61 ($488)
Day 05: $76 ($610)
Day 06: $95 ($762)
Day 07: $119 ($953)
Day 08: $149 ($1192)
Day 09: $186 ($1490)
Day 10: $232 ($1862)
Day 11: $291 ($2328)
Day 12: $363 ($2910)
Day 13: $454 ($3637)
Day 14: $568 ($4547)
Day 15: $710 ($5684)
Day 16: $888 ($7105)
Day 17: $1110 ($8881)
Day 18: $1387 ($11102)
Day 19: $1734 ($13877)
Day 20: $2168 ($17347)
And that is just stacking the first trade of the day!
Who knows how many lines you made on trades 2+

The question that should come to mind is "what about margin?"

$2168/line is only $19.63/pip on the monthly chart compared to $314/pip on the hourly chart.
Each time you move to a larger chart you halve your position size and double the width of the lines to make the same amount of money
over larger bar ranges.

Now as the money trickles in on the monthly chart you are going to find that you have enough money to drop down to the weekly chart and then the daily chart and so on and the speed at which you make 'x' doubles all the way down to the hourly.

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Re:

Postby Mira » Sun Sep 10, 2017 11:40 am

Jalarupa wrote:
I'm basically outlining the price formation and positive reinforcing moves that extend conviction in the idea of an extreme...



Jala! What do you mean?
Thank you much


Jalarupa wrote: That, or I'm really high and the only I can communicate with you is by blinking my eyes...


:lol:
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What do I mean...?

Postby Jalarupa » Sun Sep 10, 2017 4:37 pm

Image

So here is mapped out a scenario of price action off a HH extreme...

You get cone exhaustion...
Then you get MOMO which takes out Long MOMO and a BDP Zline (the buy zline)
You then get price returning to Zero Short Breakout Traders as well as those traders holding onto their long taking heat(Zline and Failed Zline)
Within that price range you have a Continuation Cone (slanted in the direction of the Breakout)
And on the outskirts of that range you have a If/Then Exhaustion Cone

When price enters that space... expect it to go in the direction of profit...

MO does this in a wwwwwwaaaaaaaaayyyy simpler way... but it is essetially exactly what you have been shown by him...

Image

Image

Above I'm playing with this idea of speed of the move out of the extreme... Would be interesting to see what MO says... But I don't want to derail anyones train of thought...

//peace
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Re: Libertarians take on trading

Postby Mira » Sun Sep 10, 2017 11:23 pm

MightyOne wrote:'Space' as it was previously explained was too difficult to understand: no one knew how to properly size a risk box or adjust its size to make the most out of their trades.

Today we still use a risk box (total risk) but we divide it into 8 segments the width of which is determined by the average hourly movement of the pair and the chart period that you are trading:
H1: 38.2% of average = x: H4: x * 2, Daily: x * 4, Weekly: x * 8, Monthly: x * 16

Take a minute to understand how trading the H4 chart would change the attached chart where 1 segment of risk is 76.4% of the average range; your stop is now twice as far away from the entry level and your maximum short entry area ("or here") would be another line lower so there would be no need for '*'.
The greater the average range that a segment consumes the larger the chart that one must be trading because it takes larger ranges to pass through each space.

The picture should say 38.2%, not .382% #-o
for_libby.png

If you put $200 in the box then what is your risk? Trick question! The risk is the box, but for our mental health we just say that our risk is what we put into the box at the very beginning.

Since the box is divided into 8 segments ('lines'), each line gained will increase your trade size by 12.5% (9/8):
$200 + $25, new risk per line (9/8)25 or as close as you can get to $28.125, 8 x $28.125 = a $225 box.

+4 lines is then (12/8)$28.125, etc.

What happens if you lose 2.5 lines? If you only wanted to risk 2 then you have 5.5 of 6 lines (8 - 2) so you adjust
your line value to (5.5/6)28.125 or $25.781 and now you have 6 lines.
If you gained 4 lines then you could be aggressive and divide the money into 6 segments:
6 + 4 lines = 10, (10/6)25.781 = 6 lines of $42.968

You are down to .75 lines and you need 2.5 lines to get back to business, do you reach in your pocket for another $200? Hellz to the no!
(.75/2.5)42.968 = 2.5 lines of $12.89; it is a smaller size than you started with but a few good wins and you'll be back in the races.

Don't worry about c-ck swinging, the swing will come:
focus on your money and what you need to do, not what other people are doing.

Code: Select all

What would happen if your first objective of the day was to absorb 2 lines?:

Day 00: $25/line ($200 in the box)
Day 01: $31 ($250)
Day 02: $39 ($312)
Day 03: $48 ($390)
Day 04: $61 ($488)
Day 05: $76 ($610)
Day 06: $95 ($762)
Day 07: $119 ($953)
Day 08: $149 ($1192)
Day 09: $186 ($1490)
Day 10: $232 ($1862)
Day 11: $291 ($2328)
Day 12: $363 ($2910)
Day 13: $454 ($3637)
Day 14: $568 ($4547)
Day 15: $710 ($5684)
Day 16: $888 ($7105)
Day 17: $1110 ($8881)
Day 18: $1387 ($11102)
Day 19: $1734 ($13877)
Day 20: $2168 ($17347)
And that is just stacking the first trade of the day!
Who knows how many lines you made on trades 2+

The question that should come to mind is "what about margin?"

$2168/line is only $19.63/pip on the monthly chart compared to $314/pip on the hourly chart.
Each time you move to a larger chart you halve your position size and double the width of the lines to make the same amount of money
over larger bar ranges.

Now as the money trickles in on the monthly chart you are going to find that you have enough money to drop down to the weekly chart and then the daily chart and so on and the speed at which you make 'x' doubles all the way down to the hourly.



Very beautiful post MO =D>

Thanks!
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Re: Libertarians take on trading

Postby Libertarian » Mon Sep 11, 2017 7:40 pm

Well this really brings back nightmares :shock: :smt073 #-o :smt119 :smt120 BlackEye_Smile


MightyOne wrote:Take a minute to understand how trading the H4 chart would change the attached chart where 1 segment of risk is 76.4% of the average range; your stop is now twice as far away from the entry level and your maximum short entry area ("or here") would be another line lower so there would be no need for
The greater the average range that a segment consumes the larger the chart that one must be trading because it takes larger ranges to pass through each space.


First question I have, so the attached chart you marked up is the chart you are trading? In my post I was trading the D1, so I just want to be sure were talking about the same thing.

So you can start (your risk) on the MN if you feel so inclined and start to walk it down from there? You start high and as you gain OPM you can "walk it down" is that what you mean by that?

Also, what da fudge are the red Balls showing me. I'm married so I only know blue balls. :P :cry:

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Re: Libertarians take on trading

Postby MightyOne » Mon Sep 11, 2017 9:32 pm

Libertarian wrote:Well this really brings back nightmares :shock: :smt073 #-o :smt119 :smt120 BlackEye_Smile

First question I have, so the attached chart you marked up is the chart you are trading? In my post I was trading the D1, so I just want to be sure were talking about the same thing.

So you can start (your risk) on the MN if you feel so inclined and start to walk it down from there? You start high and as you gain OPM you can "walk it down" is that what you mean by that?

Also, what da fudge are the red Balls showing me. I'm married so I only know blue balls. :P :cry:


1. select a price level
2. attach two lines of risk

That is all that I am saying...

$200 divided into 8 lines of $25, 2 lines is 50 dollars spread over x * multiplier depending on the chart that you are trading.

If your lines are 10 pips wide and your price level is 1.5000 then your stop is at 1.5020
By 'walk it down' I simply mean that you move you price level down to 1.4090 and your stop to 1.5010

So how easy that is? :lol:

1. If you have 8 lines and you gain 3 then your line value moves up from $25 to (11/8)25

2. If you have 8 lines and you lose 3 lines then you have 5 lines of $25
If you want to recover 1 line then your line value is (5/6)25 and you have 6 lines of $20.833 or as close as you can get to that.
If after reducing your line value to $20.833 you gain 1 line then your new line value is (7/6)20.8333 or 6 lines of $24.305

If you manage your money well then you should go the whole year without losing what you initially put into the risk-box.

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