News and Analysis

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SFX_Official
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Re: News and Analysis

Postby SFX_Official » Tue Aug 08, 2017 3:34 pm

GBP/USD Technical Analysis & Daily Chart

After a series of sideways movements, we believe the GBP/USD would finally rebound from the support and turn bullish.

Today for our analysis we would look into the GBP/USD currency pair, which was moving sideways for some time but started going down after the American market open.

At this point the GBP/USD is headed for a steady decrease and would soon touch an area when we can start buying it safely. Of course, we should pay attention to key levels and use the support at 1.3006, which coincides with several Fibonacci factors, as guidance for our buy positions. For the upper limit of the reverse movement after touching the support, we need to focus on the resistance level at 1.3109.

In terms of technical indicators, we can very clearly see that the Stochastic one is playing with the support at 7.5%, which indicates that we would see a bullish turn soon, so we are expecting the price to rebound from the support up to the resistance we just mentioned above.

The most important thing about this pair today is that the level of 1.30 is a sort of a pivot point: if the pair drops below it, we should expect that the bears will dominate the market. However, as long as the GBP/USD rates remain above it, we can rely on the pair rebounding from the support and climbing up.

To sum up, we should place buy orders with a target of 1.3006 (our support level) and a take profit at 1.3109 (the resistance level). Just to be safe, we should also indicate our stop-loss at 1.2954.


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Re: News and Analysis

Postby SFX_Official » Wed Aug 09, 2017 3:46 pm

NZD/USD: Fundamental Review & Forecast


The support line is moving down and the upward trend is weakening while the market is waiting for the RBNZ decision about the rate change and monetary policy.

Since May the rates of the NZD/USD had been in the frames of an upward trend which is based on the weakened U.S. dollar. Now the market is almost frozen while waiting for the RBNZ's interest rate decision and the monetary policy report of the Central Bank.


In the beginning of the month the NZD rate reached the level of May 2015, but then began decreasing to more reasonable levels because the value of the NZD seems overrated, given the worsening economic situation in the country and unconvincing economic statistics.

Overall, we can definitely say there is a lack of incentives for the NZD to strengthen. In addition, the RBNZ has repeatedly stated that they're not interested in a strong currency rate. Investors are confident that the RBNZ will leave interest rates unchanged. Therefore, the probability of a further decreasing of the NZD is very high. The only thing we can expect that can help the NZD to remain at the same high level would be a significant easing in the monetary policy of the RBNZ. We can even expect some price hikes during the period of news from the RBNZ tonight.

This is a rare case when we have to ignore all oscillators (Stochastic, MACD, RSI), which unanimously indicate a signal about the oversold zone and a good moment for the deals to BUY. Because of the given the fundamental factors, there is a high probability for a further decreasing of the NZD/USD rate to the level of 0.72 USD. The support line has already started to shift down, so the deals to SELL seem much more effective. Nevertheless, it is too early to speak about the trend reversal, but it's safe to talk about the weakening of the current uptrend.

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Re: News and Analysis

Postby SFX_Official » Thu Aug 10, 2017 3:38 pm

EUR/USD Technical Overview & Daily Chart

After a strong bullish moment for the euro, the price movement has lulled, though we predict it would recover.

Today for our analysis we would look into the current state of the EUR/USD currency pair.

In recent weeks the euro has gradually strengthened against the weakened American dollar. This is largely due to good economic data from Europe, on the one hand, and political instability in the United States, on the other. However, this week we saw some short-term losses for the EUR; still, it didn’t drop too much and was able to find a stable support level above 1.17, which is not bad at all.

The Euro still has the potential to resume its growth to the level of 1.18 that is so coveted by investors, but this might take some time, so we need to be patient.

We currently have the deciding pivot point at 1.1724. If the EUR/USD drops below it, we should keep our eyes on the nearby support levels at 1.1712, 1.1704, and 1.1692. In case the price moves beyond the pivot point, we can use the nearby resistance levels at 1.1732, 1.1744, and 1.1752 as guidance.

As of the moment of this article’s publication the EUR/USD is trading near the pivot point at around 1.1726. The technical indicators are unanimous in recommending a strong sell.

We have some fundamental releases from both the European Union and the United States today. In Europe we expect data on the French industrial production, as well as the trade balance of Italy. From the US we are waiting for the balance of the federal budget, the core PPI, the reserves of natural gas, unemployment, and other economic data. Because of these releases some moderate volatility can be expected in the pair today.


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Re: News and Analysis

Postby SFX_Official » Fri Aug 11, 2017 3:21 pm

The US vs. North Korea

The markets are shaken amid the rising tensions between the United States and North Korea.

While this week has been more or less quiet in terms of actual economic events affecting the financial markets, it was quite the opposite in terms of politics: this week US President Donald Trump made several controversial comments that sparked a discussion on whether the United States would be going to war with North Korea.

Needless to say, such major fundamental events always have an effect on the markets. In this particular case it was Asian stocks (particularly in South Korea, which is dangerously close to a potential war zone) that dropped significantly – now they seem more insecure than ever, and investors are directing their attention to other safe-haven instruments such as gold, the Swiss franc, and the Japanese yen.

The currency of Korea, the won, also suffered losses against the dollar, dropping to its lowest this month as a result of the growing tensions in the region.

Australian markets are also somewhat affected, while the state of the markets in Japan is unclear since the country was celebrating a holiday and the market was not open. The American stock market also suffered amid the news, as did the stock markets in London, Paris, and Frankfurt.

So, what happened exactly?

North Korea, which has been more active in its testing of military weapons over the past few years, announced its intentions to fire missiles into Guam, which is officially a US-controlled territory. It is important to note that the Korean war never officially ended, so at least on paper relations between the United States and North Korea are not good.

In recent months tensions with North Korea came to light also because the communist state released a prisoner who was an American citizen, who reached the US in a terrible physical state. The young man showed signs of extensive brain damage; his condition was so bad that it completely baffled American doctors, and he soon died. This story rattled the West and caused people to speculate that North Korea is up to something.

Instead of addressing North Korea’s plans of attack through the accepted diplomatic channels, Trump took to Twitter to talk about retaliation, and then reaffirmed in an interview that he is ready to go to war if North Korea does attack any American territories.

This newly-added level of serious political insecurity rattled the global financial markets. The dollar marked new decreases against the yen. In addition, the yen is gaining on the USD due to issues with the American treasury and a possible default coming in the next two to three months.

Clearly this is a complex issue. So far neither country has attacked, but considering that President Trump and Supreme Leader Kim Jong-un have got to be the two most unpredictable leaders in the world right now, tensions are definitely growing steadily. Make sure you watch out for any related news and see how the markets are responding as more information is flowing in.

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Re: News and Analysis

Postby SFX_Official » Mon Aug 14, 2017 4:47 pm

GBP/AUD Technical Outlook & H4 Chart

The bears are back this week to make new lows.

After the GBP/AUD recorded its highest level this year at 1.7647 in May, it turned back to decline by more than 1350 pips and it’s trading now at 1.6480. Today the Australian Dollar rose in the beginning of the week because of the tension between North Korea and the United States, in addition to China's foreign ministry saying there is no future in a China-U.S. trade war and adding that issues of trade and North Korea are not connected. The ministry also said that China pays great attention to protecting its intellectual property rights and says the essence of U.S.-China trade is mutually beneficial and a win-win.

The GBP/AUD currency pair is trading inside a downside price channel which may lead the pair to new lows this week. The pair’s trading between support and resistance areas representative at the trend lines and it’s expected that the pair will break the downside trend line to decline further. The moving average is trading above the prices which supports the negative vision, while the Stochastic indicator hasn't shown us the sell signal yet.

The Next Few Days

After we learned the outlook for the pair is down, we can take sell positions at the resistance levels, which means we can take sell positions now at the current level 1.6480, sell again if it reaches 1.6560, and place a third sell position at 1.6640, keeping our target for all of them at 1.6310.

This week the market has some hot news from the UK like the Average Earnings Index and the retail sales. In addition, we expect the Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes for the Australian bank and the Unemployment Rate.

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Re: News and Analysis

Postby SFX_Official » Wed Aug 16, 2017 4:41 pm

EUR/SGD: Fundamental Review & Forecast

We have an extremely rapid upward trend but it seems like the peak has been reached.

It is difficult to imagine a more rapid upward trend than we can see on the EUR/SGD chart. The Euro strengthened against many currencies, but this did not lead to such a significant increase relative to another currency. At the moment it is likely that the price has reached a peak, especially amid disappointing statistics from the Eurozone. This week the market received data that indicates slower economic growth in the EU. Germany's GDP in the 2nd quarter amounted to only 0.8% yoy, while the market expected a GDP growth of 1.9%. The volumes of industrial manufacturing in the Eurozone fell in June by 0.6%, although this is in line with expectations. The eurozone's GDP is only 0.6% in Q2, which is also in line with the expectation of investors.

Thus, the Euro doesn't have enough stimulus for growth. The Singapore dollar gets the opportunity to consolidate at least at the current levels and prevent a further falling in price. During the last five months the SGD has changed in price from 1.4845 EUR up to EUR 1.602. It should be noted that the Singapore dollar is now at the level of November 2015. This is another reason why we say that the peak has been reached.

Next week the Singapore dollar can be supported due to the release of new statistics about industrial production volumes for July and the consumer prices index. The latest data on the economy of Singapore is showing a pretty good economic situation: retail sales in June grew by 1.9% and continue to grow for the fourth consecutive month.

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Re: News and Analysis

Postby SFX_Official » Thu Aug 17, 2017 3:18 pm

USD/CHF Technical Analysis & Daily Chart

We forecast a bullish movement for the pair in the recent future.

Today we would focus our analysis on the USD/CHF currency pair. The price recently managed to reach areas above 0.9639, and we expect this bullish momentum to continue, possibly as fr as 0.9800.

After trading between 0.9639-0.9600 for several days (which are the 61.8% and 50% Fibonacci levels), the pair overcame this fluctuation and reached a new high at 0.9733. The old resistance at 0.9639 turned into a support level, while the pair acquired a new resistance at 0.9763 (which also helps to form a double top pattern on the chart).

Now the price of the USD/CHF can be seen oscillating between 0.9693 and 0.9763. It is demonstrating a markedly bullish character; the RSI indicator also agrees that the pair is located in a bullish trend.

This is why we expect that the USD/CHF would be able to break its nearby resistance level at 0.9763 and continue moving upward. Our next resistance today is located at 0.9800 and might also be tested, if the first one is successfully overcome. As long as the pair is able to stay above its older channel at 0.9639-0.9600, then expect further growth.

At the moment of this article’s publication the pair is trading around 0.9650 and most trading indicators show a strong sell suggestion.

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