bitcy wrote:People! You are trading water! This is the best joke I ever read and I can't stop laughing. Stop looking for holygrail and start studying and learning.
bitcy, thanks for your "valuable" input. Could you please direct us to some of your works so that we may finally stop trading water and looking for holy grail? Please lead us to the light.
bitcy wrote:This idea is not new, it was born with the market and it was written down later by John Nash in his group's theory, many years ago.
As Confucius said some 2500 years ago, "No idea is really new". I've come up with FPI idea by myself about year ago, but it would be naive to think that nobody before me was ever thinking/working/writing about a similar idea.
By the way, Nash didn't write any "group theory". I guess you are referring to his famous Equilibrium points in n-person games
work. I'm sure Confucius would be glad to know that even Nash's idea "was not really new". If you studied some more, you would know that the idea Nash got Nobel prize for in the nineties is actually sometimes called Nash-Cournot equilibrium
. And I'm sure that if we went back to Mr. Cournot's time we would find out that even his idea "was not really new".
Also, it seems like you didn't get the basic principle of Nash's non-cooperative games: Nash equilibrium is a set of rules that produces the best total sum of outcomes
the involved players in the game. This equilibrium is reached if no player would gain anything by changing his personal behavior
without the others changing their behavior, too.
But I can't really see any direct
link between Nash's non-cooperative games and the Forex market. In Forex market, the game players are not
equally capable of playing the game, so, quite obviously, the big player has much to gain
by changing his personal behavior at the moment without consulting his game strategy first with all the rest of the game players.
bitcy wrote:For the initiator of the trend:
Please REVIEW YOUR MATH and stop cheating people. In your example there is a qty of about 25K jpy not hedged, and you make the 6$ proffit from this quantity ONLY.
Now come on, bitcy
In a later article, I corrected that obvious error - I was writing the article you are referring to deep in the night
bitcy wrote:If you make the complete hedging as you show later in the other post with the nice colored table (with 126k insted of 100k, buy you say nothing about profit there)
Correct! I say nothing about profit there, because if you look closely at that post, it does only show how to calculate the position sizes for FPI correctly.
If I were to say something about profit/loss, I would have to include not only the open
transation, but the close
transaction, too. I reckon 99.9% of the readers noticed there's only one table, not two.
bitcy wrote:Nice in theory, nice in testing: it produces small profit all the time when tested on historical data. IT NEVER PRODUCE PROFIT in real time, or at least not enough profit to cover the spread.
If you would kindly read my introductory article
, you would notice my sentence "the success of using FPI in a real trading environment is much dependent on a fast and literally razor-sharp execution and low spread". Obviously, this condition is not met
with the majority of retail FX brokers.
bitcy wrote:I dont think I will come back here soon
Too bad. I will be missing you badly.