Let's get real, Wizzle's log

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aliassmith
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Re: Let's get real, Wizzle's log

Postby aliassmith » Tue Mar 29, 2022 7:32 am

Don_xyZ wrote:
Wizzlebizzle wrote:
Don_xyZ wrote:
Wow, R below 1? Is that sustainable?


Hi Don, welcome :)

Who knows, so far it is just about sustainable :lol:

I don't really look at R:R, maybe only as a hindsight analysis of a larger sample of trades.
In and of itself a R below 1 doesn't mean anything. Only when u pair it with a win/loss rate can u get something meaningful out of it.

This particular stop hit my disaster stop. On most trades I will be about way before that point, and in this case I did also put on a counter so the loss was actually less.

Having said that, I'm just trading this way now to get two things consistent: 1. Accurately determining and adhering to a directional bias. 2. Finding and entering on Zlines. It might wel be an overal losing proposition, but so far it's doing OK and I have good faith in the approach.

I'm keeping track of the things I do wrong and im scoring pretty high on the "Got out too soon" so that is for me to work on..

What is your view on it?


Yes of course, Like Alias said, your win rate must be very high then. Good for you :)
Everyone left something on the table and that's normal. Also, you're doing counter and that's a plus. It's like a plan B.


In a 1R you need about 55% depending on style, spead, and commissions to be profitable. Thats not sniper territory. If you can get a 1.5R average with 60% accuracy then make space in your vault for the cash.
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Re: Let's get real, Wizzle's log

Postby Wizzlebizzle » Tue Mar 29, 2022 7:37 am

Don_xyZ wrote:
Wizzlebizzle wrote:
Don_xyZ wrote:
Wow, R below 1? Is that sustainable?


Hi Don, welcome :)

Who knows, so far it is just about sustainable :lol:

I don't really look at R:R, maybe only as a hindsight analysis of a larger sample of trades.
In and of itself a R below 1 doesn't mean anything. Only when u pair it with a win/loss rate can u get something meaningful out of it.

This particular stop hit my disaster stop. On most trades I will be about way before that point, and in this case I did also put on a counter so the loss was actually less.

Having said that, I'm just trading this way now to get two things consistent: 1. Accurately determining and adhering to a directional bias. 2. Finding and entering on Zlines. It might wel be an overal losing proposition, but so far it's doing OK and I have good faith in the approach.

I'm keeping track of the things I do wrong and im scoring pretty high on the "Got out too soon" so that is for me to work on..

What is your view on it?


Yes of course, Like Alias said, your win rate must be very high then. Good for you :)
Everyone left something on the table and that's normal. Also, you're doing counter and that's a plus. It's like a plan B.


Hey Don, My win rate isn't quite thát high :) Still finding my feet with this way of trading. Any input is welcome.

I am simply determining a bias from the H1 based on Zlines (very mechanical atm). Then enter in the direction of that bias on the 15m (sometimes 5m) chart. Been looking also at implementing an even higher bias from the daily chart. So it would look more like: Daily for bias, Hourly for filter and 15m for entry.

Happy to provide some charts for clarification if needed.

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Re: Let's get real, Wizzle's log

Postby Wizzlebizzle » Tue Mar 29, 2022 8:20 am

How I determine a directional bias. This is purely mechanical at the moment and I am sure this can be refined.

1. Wait for a Zline to form on higher time frame. This is now your bias, this bias can be changed when:
2. Price closes below this Zline with momentum
3. Price touched an old Zline, but does not close over it with momentum
4. A new opposite Zline is formed.

So looking at today, first picture we had a 1H Zline form that gave a long bias, on the next bar that Zline was broken with momentum zo the bias is now short.
Screenshot 2022-03-29 at 08.35.06.png
Screenshot 2022-03-29 at 08.35.06.png (226.09 KiB) Viewed 2578 times
Screenshot 2022-03-29 at 09.19.23.png
Screenshot 2022-03-29 at 09.19.23.png (34.28 KiB) Viewed 2578 times

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Re: Let's get real, Wizzle's log

Postby Wizzlebizzle » Tue Mar 29, 2022 8:31 am

Short entry should be on 15m at red line (I entered a bit higher)

For now the target is the red dotted line. Stop is higher up, but will get out sooner if price closes above my entry with momentum on 15m. Possibly counter sooner

Target
Screenshot 2022-03-29 at 09.28.15.png
Screenshot 2022-03-29 at 09.28.15.png (82.97 KiB) Viewed 2567 times

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Re: Let's get real, Wizzle's log

Postby Wizzlebizzle » Tue Mar 29, 2022 8:41 am

Screenshot 2022-03-29 at 09.41.04.png
Screenshot 2022-03-29 at 09.41.04.png (50.17 KiB) Viewed 2566 times


+18

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Re: Let's get real, Wizzle's log

Postby Wizzlebizzle » Tue Mar 29, 2022 11:17 am

Another short opportunity at the red line. I didn't take it as I am about to go to work.
Screenshot 2022-03-29 at 12.16.46.png
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Re: Let's get real, Wizzle's log

Postby aliassmith » Tue Mar 29, 2022 12:38 pm

Wizzlebizzle wrote:Screenshot 2022-03-29 at 09.41.04.png

+18


Nice pips. You can definitely eat well with 18 pips.
I'm trying to follow along but it looks like you invented a new way of using zline =D>
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Re: Let's get real, Wizzle's log

Postby Wizzlebizzle » Tue Mar 29, 2022 8:49 pm

aliassmith wrote:
Wizzlebizzle wrote:Screenshot 2022-03-29 at 09.41.04.png

+18


Nice pips. You can definitely eat well with 18 pips.
I'm trying to follow along but it looks like you invented a new way of using zline =D>


Thank you Alias,

I might well have haha. Please correct me if I am off track.

I use it two fold, in two slightly different ways. One for a directional basis and on for entries.

I'm happy enough with the entries. It does seem the directional bias can be a bit off/laggy. The beauty of it is though that when my directional bias is off, I will hardly find any entries so worst case scenario I might miss some trades.

Shutting down the pc for now, got an early morning at work tomorrow, but should be down by lunchtime for perhaps a trade or two.

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Re: Let's get real, Wizzle's log

Postby Wizzlebizzle » Fri Apr 01, 2022 7:01 am

Didn't trade the last two days. First short is on for today.
Screenshot 2022-04-01 at 08.01.01.png
Screenshot 2022-04-01 at 08.01.01.png (125.51 KiB) Viewed 2328 times


Closed out for +8 already. done :)

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Re: Let's get real, Wizzle's log

Postby aliassmith » Fri Apr 01, 2022 9:02 am

Wizzlebizzle wrote:Didn't trade the last two days. First short is on for today.Screenshot 2022-04-01 at 08.01.01.png

Closed out for +8 already. done :)


Seems like you are looking for zline flips or fails. They work also.
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