Trade opportunities on EURJPY

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Paul
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Trade opportunities on EURJPY

Postby Paul » Sat Nov 07, 2009 7:22 pm

EURJPY is between two longer-period UPOs ([highlight=red]Unstable Periodic Orbits[/highlight]) -
136.19 and 130.78 with a range of 541 pips.

EURJPY is also between two shorter-period UPOs -
134.84 and 132.69 with a range of 215 pips.

Spot rate on Friday Close - 133.52. Last signal - SELL.

The above UPOs will be reached with a 100% certainty although in an undefined time frame. The UPOs have been extracted from EURJPY H1 charts with the use of the theory of chaos.
These results and analysis pertain to the determinism of chaotic systems.
What I want to emphasize is that I have given you four target levels, two above and two below Friday Close. EURJPY is going to reach each target level at some time in the future, however the hierarchy of UPOs is an open question. Even the last signal is not indicative that targets below Friday Close will be reached first.
No new condition will change those targets, no new factor will affect the determinism of the system.
Whatever position you open now, long or short, you will be able to close it with a predefined profit (267 pips, 132 pips, 274 pips, 83 pips). No stop loss.
You may not be able to profit only and only if the negative interest eats you out.

You are welcome to suggest which target (UPOs) is seen by you as the most probable first one from the perspective of a stochastic market (TA), or from the perspective of a market map (no TA indicators). In other words you have gems in your hand but in order to keep them all or some you need to be able to establish some probabilities.

Red lines are classical support and resistance.

The first two ellipses mark returns to a UPO. The second return highlights Poincare's topological theorem which translated into forex language says that if prices return to a UPO after some time, then they will return to that UPO at least one more time.

Now I would like to refer to my September post and the EURJPY image. EURJPY revisited the UPO's line 16 times after the first return! Because a UPO is an unstable orbit, prices never settle on the line but cross it frequently and finally divert from it at a fast pace.
EURJPY ran away from 130.95 to over 138.00.
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Last edited by Paul on Sat Nov 07, 2009 11:29 pm, edited 5 times in total.

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glenngie
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Postby glenngie » Sat Nov 07, 2009 8:07 pm

sent you PM

Paul
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Trade opportunities on EURUSD

Postby Paul » Sat Nov 07, 2009 11:55 pm

EURUSD recent medium-term UPOs found at 1.4873 and 1.4797 (span 76 pips only).
Friday Close 1.4843.
The above UPOs will be reached with a 100% certainty although in an undefined time frame. The UPOs have been extracted from EURUSD M30 charts with the use of the theory of chaos.
These results and analysis pertain to the determinism of chaotic systems.

No new condition will change those targets, no new factor will affect the determinism of the system.

The ellipses are just one of the possible scenarios.
The second image shows two other possible scenarios.

You are welcome to suggest which target (UPOs) is seen by you as the most probable first one from the perspective of a stochastic market (TA), or from the perspective of a market map (no TA indicators).
Attachments
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Paul
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If science is not digestable then we should simply follow my

Postby Paul » Sun Nov 08, 2009 12:23 am

brother-in-law who is illiterate on TA and trades on mere candles (M30).
He made over 600,000 from mere 25,000 in less than just one month trading only eurusd. Demo of course, but you beat him. I can't.

glenngie
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Postby glenngie » Sun Nov 08, 2009 12:25 am

"The UPOs have been extracted from EURUSD M30 charts with the use of the theory of chaos. These results and analysis pertain to the determinism of chaotic systems."

Paul, in layman's terms, how are you extracting the UPO's?

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Paul
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UPOs can be extracted

Postby Paul » Sun Nov 08, 2009 2:04 am

only if you reconstruct the strange attractor. It requires tools from physics (non-linear dynamic systems, chaos, discrete systems, statistical mechanics, solitons) and mathematics (differential calculus, topology). These are all inter-related and very very difficult. Most papers on FX which use those tools are written from the perspective of market makers and the interbank, not us, small traders. Studies how to control chaos for example. It may raise your hair when you read that small perturbations of prices are the low-cost and highly effective ways of keeping the market on the right path. You do not hear much of interventions a couple of years already. Raw interventions are old-fashioned ways. It smacks of manipulations of course. For the sake of stability of the whole FX system. 10 banks make almost 80% of the FX global volume. All heuristics of FX on my desk points to the existence of solitons on financial markets. I made this suggestion while presenting UPOs to a distinguished professor. I concluded that the inner built memory (which is self-evident) is due either to solitons (natural) or to external factors (manipulations, control). Tercium non datur. He agreed to my conclusion while objecting to having solitons (on the ground that noone has worked out a theory that solitons are possible in discrete systems). I may not have discovered anything or have I?
I want everyone to understand that the intermittance of the FX market gives periods of time when the market is deterministic, and some other time stochastic. When stochastic, traditional TA works pretty well. When deterministic, no indicator works well. To distinguish between the two states is a veeery troublesome theoretical task. When you deal with chaos, you get the skeleton of the system which never changes. You may guess that the ideal control of FX is simply to know the order of UPOs, what is number one, number two etc. In laymen words which target will be done first, second etc. You do not need to worry about those inevitable fluctuations of prices or short-scale trends. UPOs exhibit special hierarchy. There is so much more to enjoy.
When I become pensive I think that perhaps the best money one can make is to establish a UPO for a position with interest working in my favour, open it and just wait on a Bali island.

glenngie
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Postby glenngie » Sun Nov 08, 2009 2:59 am

thanks....this is very difficult material to digest. I do appreciate you expounding on it though....

Paul
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Trade opportunities on GBPUSD

Postby Paul » Sun Nov 08, 2009 11:53 am

Below is the image of GBPUSD M30.
GBPUSD is trying to cross an area of 1.6619-1.6650. These are a little earlier unstable orbits (UPOs). What is not seen here is the fact that the first attempt of a break higher from October 21-23 was a failure. Now it is a second attempt. In common words shorts are defending their positions, stops must be above 1.6650. The market is pushing towards a next UPO at 1.6826.
GBPUSD may dip below 1.6471 to test 1.6317 and then regain strength to break 1.6650. Again this is just one of the scenarios. There are a few UPOs below 1.6317 and the market ran away from them.
This pair is not giving us any other clues, so the situation is different than that on EURJPY and EURUSD. It seems it is necessary to make a study of a breakout high or low with respective BUY STOP and SELL STOP orders.

We will find more clues from GBPJPY.
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Paul
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Trade opportunities on GBPJPY

Postby Paul » Sun Nov 08, 2009 12:28 pm

Below is the chart GBPJPY H1 with UPOs.
As expected it is giving us some clues also for GBPUSD.

Medium term GBPJPY is going to retest 151.72. A break higher will target 154.27. Before that we will see another attempt above 150.85.

Short-term GBPJPY in the middle of 150.25 and 148.08. I see more chances of reaching 150.25 than the low UPO. But this is just an opinion. You may see it differently.

Longer term GBPJPY will dip to 143.65.
So the short-term potential is 87 pips from a long position. And 140 pips to the downside.
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glenngie
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Postby glenngie » Sun Nov 08, 2009 1:52 pm

Paul, I posted on the MT4 Platform thread about Patch and I fully funding an EA based on velocity, acceleration, etc. Sure could use a good math mind to review it. PM me if you have an interest. Sure hate to have your high IQ sit idle on a Bali Beach :)

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