Simple as 1-2-3

[RicG]

Hi all,

Fairly wild, volatile day on the ole NQ - nicer than yesterday's choppy price action. Right after the open it pounded down 35 points, then in a "V" price formation pushed straight back up 50 points. Following that it trended back down almost the entire move up, then oscillated in a nice wide, tradable range for most of the rest of the day.

The NQ CCI Trendline Break Strategy performed well:

14 Winners, plus 64.00 points
4 Losers, minus 16.00 points
Net before commissions, plus 48.00 points
Win % for the day = 77.8%
Ave Win = 4.57 points
Ave Loss = 4.00 points

This will probably be the last time I post one of these updates, until the strategy has a losing day. I want to post one of those because all too often all we see on trading boards are the great winning trades and wonderful profitable days. I think that sets up unrealistic expectations for new and experienced traders alike. I've never found a strategy that doesn't have a bad day every now and then and that's just the reality of trading. (If you know of one, I'd love to know about it!)

The signals/entries/results for today's action are posted in the pics below:







Later,
Ric

[Captain Pugwash]

Thanks for these posts Ric

I did not want you to think these posts of yours were being ignored - even though I am personally a supply demand nutter- I know I am not the only one very interested in these trades.

Any further updates - even occasional ones -are very welcome

Thanks

Cap n P

[judokamak]

This will probably be the last time I post one of these updates, until the strategy has a losing day. I want to post one of those because all too often all we see on trading boards are the great winning trades and wonderful profitable days. I think that sets up unrealistic expectations for new and experienced traders alike.

Very true!

Would you mind explaining how you pick up profits. You said, your TP is 6 points. Yesterday you have avg. win of 4.5 points. Do you use TS?

[dchappy]

Ric,,,,,,,You Da Man

[RicG]

Thanks for these posts Ric

I did not want you to think these posts of yours were being ignored - even though I am personally a supply demand nutter- I know I am not the only one very interested in these trades.

Any further updates - even occasional ones -are very welcome

Thanks

Cap n P

Hi Captain -

Thanks for the response.

I'm also a big fan of supply/demand, and utilize it in one of my trading setups/strategies for CL But CL currently has a "personality disorder." It went through the same thing about 18 months ago and lasted a couple of months. I'm sure it will return to it's old tried and true self in due time. And when it does I'll be back to trade it.

In the meantime, I'm trading NQ with this new strategy. It's working quite well at present. But just like any market/strategy combination for active trading, there will come a dry period when it temporarily won't be profitable. And when that occurs, I won't trade it at all as well.

I think that's one of the nuances I've learned over the years. It's all about reading and interpreting current price action/market specific personality then making proper adjustments of how and when you trade it. Why beat your head against a wall and break-even or lose money, even for a short period of time, just because your old tried and true "system" and market isn't producing income?

As far as more posts are concerned, I wasn't planning on posting today, but see below.....

Best wishes,

Ric

[RicG]

This will probably be the last time I post one of these updates, until the strategy has a losing day. I want to post one of those because all too often all we see on trading boards are the great winning trades and wonderful profitable days. I think that sets up unrealistic expectations for new and experienced traders alike.

Very true!

Would you mind explaining how you pick up profits. You said, your TP is 6 points. Yesterday you have avg. win of 4.5 points. Do you use TS?

Hey Jud

Concerning the profit target - here's the repost of that rule, since you might've missed the nuance:

5) Profit Target is 6.00 points, with the stop moved to plus 1.00 point after price has moved at least 4.00 points into profit.

Notice, that the stop is moved to plus 1.00 point after price has moved at least 4.00 point into profit. Therefore, the strategy will sometimes take only 1.00 point of profit, if price doesn't move beyond the 6.00 point profit target before returning back towards entry. (see earlier charts for those times this occurs.)

All of the stats that I've posted the past several days are based on trading the strategy strictly by the rules, which I follow about 97% of the time in my actual trading. However, when I get into a trade and price is just obviously going to easily go beyond the 6.00 point profit target l'll move it and take more $. For example, on yesterday's 24 point swing (2nd trade), I actually took 10.25 points. After entry, price just started pounding down, with no buyers in site. So I moved my profit target down, put my stop loss into profit and trailed it down above price. (Looking back at the chart, I probably should've gotten a lot more...lol). Another example, on today's charts - on that 26 point move up near the open I took 13.00 points.

But let me make very clear, one rule I never break using this strategy is the stop loss. I NEVER TAKE MORE THAN A 4 POINT LOSS, EVER. By "bending" the rules a bit but, ONLY WHEN ITS IN MY FAVOR, I know that I should do better than the expected strategy manually backtested stats.

When you ask, "Do you use TS?", I'm assuming you're referring to Trade Station. If that's the question, the answer is no. I use NinjaTrader and Sierra Charts. Charts shown on this thread are from Ninja.

Hope this helps,
Ric

[RicG]

Ric,,,,,,,You Da Man

Very cool DC - glad to see that it worked early today on YM, as well!

[RicG]

Hi all,

When I said yesterday that next time I'd post results would most likely be on a break even or losing day, I didn't expect to post today. However, around mid-day I started annotating a chart, because it appeared to me that the strategy was going to have a losing, or at best, a break-even type day. And since I invested the time to mark-up the charts early-on, I decided to go ahead and post what ended up being a modestly profitable day. (17 points) This was a relatively so-so price action type day, but as I was doing the manual backtesting for this strategy, I noticed that on these types of days, the strategy either made a small profit, broke-even, or took a relatively small loss. That's one thing I really liked about it. As DC said "gotta love the CCI."

Today, NQ had a nice strong push up at open - then it became a chop fest at/near the high of day. After spending over an hour doing that, it continued to chop in a 15 point channel for 3 1/2 hours (For those that aren't familiar with NQ, that's really extremely small for that period of time -- . For instance, that first push up this morning was a 26 point swing and only took about 10 minutes). Then early afternoon NQ returned to "normal" for a while, then consolidated the rest of the day.

The final results for the strategy:
6 Winners, plus 37.00 points
5 Losers, minus 20.00 points
Net before commissions, plus 17.00 points
Win % for the day = 54.5%
Ave Win = 5.29 points
Ave Loss = 4.00 points





Have a great weekend,

Ric

[dchappy]

Hi Traders ... Todays trade has helped me hit a substantial goal ,

So ,, I am going to step away from the charts for the rest of the

summer , and may return in the fall ...

Thanks much to all who have helped me in this trading journey ..

and as always " NEVER GIVE UP "

[RicG]

Hi Traders ... Todays trade has helped me hit a substantial goal ,

So ,, I am going to step away from the charts for the rest of the

summer , and may return in the fall ...

Thanks much to all who have helped me in this trading journey ..

and as always " NEVER GIVE UP "

Hey dchappy,

So glad to see that the CCI strategy worked again today on the YM. It also was outstanding today on NQ and has been really profitable in that market since I posted it. Would love to see you posting before fall on any style trading that you undertake, but if you don't have a great spring/summer!

Best wishes,
Ric

PS - As stated in an earlier post, I'll post the first losing day on the CCI trendline break strategy when it occurs (just been a winner for many consecutive days...). I think it's important to show the losing days as well as the winning days - to keep realistic trading in perspective.