My new chaos findings implemented in forex trading

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Paul&Paul
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GBPUSD has reached 1.5955, as forecasted

Postby Paul&Paul » Thu Apr 12, 2012 7:33 pm

GBPUSD has reached 1.5955, the UPO target, today.
GBPUSD went even higher to 1.5983.

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Paul&Paul
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Simple, statistical rules are superior to

Postby Paul&Paul » Fri Apr 13, 2012 2:11 am

intuitive judgements.

The clinical (informal, impressionistic, intuitive) method is the domain of all sort of pundits.
Statistical evidence shows that we should be hostile to pundits or to be more precise - to their illusory skills.

Paul&Paul
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The expert is never at fault

Postby Paul&Paul » Fri Apr 13, 2012 2:16 am

He will always explain that the world is difficult.

High subjective confidence cannot be trusted as an indicator of accuracy.

What makes you believe that you are smarter than the market? Is this illusion or skill?

Paul&Paul
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When you deal with constants

Postby Paul&Paul » Fri Apr 13, 2012 2:26 am

or multipliers or expansion factors you have something more than
statistical evidence based on some samples. You have evidence on all samples taken together when the number of experiments goes to infinity.

That way we have winter, spring, summer and autumn. Rainy or dry. Sunny or overcast.

Paul&Paul
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When you use constants, factors, multipliers

Postby Paul&Paul » Fri Apr 13, 2012 2:31 am

you tend to be rich.
It does not mean that you will be rich tomorrow but you are going towards
being rich.
At infinity everyone can be rich. Before that - only some.

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Paul&Paul
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Nobody denies that grain can be grown

Postby Paul&Paul » Fri Apr 13, 2012 2:58 am

but few people think that they can grow money and get crops big, bigger than
the actual investment.
People trust science in farming.
People do not trust science in trading.

Paul&Paul
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Predictions based on statistical methods

Postby Paul&Paul » Fri Apr 13, 2012 3:12 am

and the clinical method (informal, impressionistic, intuitive) are
incompatible.
Comparing the two does not make sense.

A decision-maker (trader) cannot act in accordance with both of incompatible predictions.

You are not informed which predictions heard on the hour, at the hour, on the telly or the radio are statistical and which are clinical.
You are made to believe that they have been made by pundits/experts.
The serious problem is that the sample of those pundits/experts is so small and so far from infinity.

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Intuition is nothing more and

Postby Paul&Paul » Fri Apr 13, 2012 3:42 am

nothing less than recognition.

Can you recognize an infinite number of Julia sets within the Mandelbrot set?
Nobody can.

Intuition being limited in scope cannot cope with all market situations taking place. There will always be something "new" which will astound you.

Paul&Paul
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Intuition cannot be trusted

Postby Paul&Paul » Fri Apr 13, 2012 4:03 pm

in the absence of stable regularities in the environment.
Chaotic systems exibit states of instablity most of the time.
Whatever regularities are there in chaos, one can see them only with special tools.
Hence, non-linear dynamics is counter-intuitive.

Paul&Paul
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EURUSD

Postby Paul&Paul » Sat Apr 14, 2012 12:42 pm

EURUSD on 14.04.
EURUSD did a little more than a cotarget 1.3177 from three independent triggers up.
After posting a semafor3 a new trigger down emerged and it expanded more than 9.1299 of its size.
On the slump two UPOs occurred
one at 1.3184
the other one at 1.3109.
The market is bound to return to them some time in the future.
Friday ended with a tone down however.
Recent major selling area is below the higher UPO, that is below 1.3184.
The lower UPO must have made new sellers very very happy. But the market won't leave them alone and sooner than later such lucky gainers will be forced to exit.
EURUSD produces very long Unstable Periodic Orbits recently.
You see for example how long it took to return to 1.3078 (three days or period 132).
The number 132 looks really big as compared to the average length of the UPO which is a little less than 4.
to be continued
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