My new chaos findings implemented in forex trading

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sts
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The curry taste of the ROOT

Postby sts » Mon Jan 23, 2012 9:34 am

Dear Paul&Paul,

Thanks again for the quick reply.
I want to take a small note hoping to make a small contribution.
When I look at the youtube videos of the logistic map.
The evolution of the map, that picture, brings the trading crowd to my mind.
(Well, after this point I should be lucky to pick the right English words
It is difficult even in my native language to tell what I mean... let me try)
Since I am not a scientist but a mere observer I might not get many things correctly
But since I have no scientific- prejudgments I can observe more freely:

i) From the very BASIC mathematical equation to magical chaos:
As far as I know the mathematical equation that creates Mandelbrot Set is a very basic formula and what creates the magic is the "feedback loop" Process. This tells me that the ROOT equation... (I mean the basic formula just before the feedback loop begins) is the key for the future states of the chaos. As the ROOT changes the magical chaotic creations change. But the chaotic ARCHITECTURE does not change. The fingerprints of the ARCHITECT can be detected via universal tools like Feigenbaum Constant. As an ordinary man I see this as something like: No matter what sort of cement the architecture uses the height of the floors are always 3 meters...etc... but after the building is finished you observe a totally different art piece since the ROOT/cement is different...

ii) The ROOT in human actions is the golden ratio:
There is no such thing as "consciousness"... it is nonsense. When you pick a perfectly grey piece of paper and ask a sample of people "if it is more black, or more white" then you observe that people always tend to split into the golden ratio. Either 62% white, or 62% black. When there is an uncertainty people always aim to make decisions so that the overall population is split by the golden ratio. I am not a good writer but you get the idea: When we observe the chaotic human actions we always witness the golden ratio because "the ROOT equation carries golden ratio"... so the normal distribution is like a perfect sphere... it is beautifully linear but the real world is not...

iii) Combining this two ideas:
When I look at the logistic map... thinking that every dot is a decision taken by an investor. Every new dot is a new investor that joins the herd by opening a position while some others takes profit and fades away... While some investors join the herd as buyers, some join it as sellers... some takes profit and goes away...etc... But ideally for every 62% new comers who think the market is black, there should be 32% who says it is white... when a split point is reached (Feigenbaum tells us when ) then the whole herd is leveled... then they begin to dance around golden ratio all over again...

To understand what I mean one should look at the classical "normal/Gaussian distribution". And then look at the logistic maps evolution... it is a movie of the distribution maps... mounting on each other... as the trend grows the new comers and the profit takers increase... but the ROOT has the golden ratio sauce... so the cooked meal should always taste like it... It is like curry, if it is in the pan there is no escape from it : - )

FINALLY: I know this was a handicapped and rather confusing narration.
But what I want to say is the Ellioticians captured one part of the reality:
"The markets should taste like golden ratio..."
But this only gives a blur vision and chaos needs more elaboration...
Now I see your work which captures the mathematics of the ARCHITECT
I believe that these two should be combined in some way..
ROOT + ARCHITECTURE = > nonlinear control...

==> I had the feeling that the Feigenbaum constant defines when the herd is in a split point. That is why I asked you questions about the time axis. Think of sand piles mounting on each other and then suddenly a TIME comes and the big pile collapses...etc... it feels like TIME-related...

==> I had the feeling that the golden ratio and its "feedback looped derivatives" should define the price axis (targets, stops...etc...)

After reading your findings I am not confident with those feelings anymore.
So I told you this story hoping to hit a correct note and contributing the music you play here : - )

Best wishes,
Sts

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Postby sts » Mon Jan 23, 2012 9:49 am

Just a small addition/correction.. I have just said: "thinking of the sand piles... it feels like the Feigenbaum constant is TIME related"...

But I checked my notes and there I had written this note to myself: " the sand pile narrations resembles the volume data..." so the volume data (perhaps one should filter the effective volume here, or open interest...etc...) might be considered as the sand pile. And the time related analysis might be based on VOLUME-based data...

I took this note because the number of participants does not matter in a market. What matters is the net buying and selling force (effective volume, delta open interest?) of each participant... So each dot on the logistic map can't be interpreted as an investor joined the herd... but "a new unit position taken" or "an old unit position that is closed"...

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To sts

Postby Paul&Paul » Mon Jan 23, 2012 5:37 pm

Thank you for your post, sts.
I will need some time to think over your observations. I haven't noticed ideas which I would instantly object to.
Before any longer considerations I undertake, one basic thought that comes to my mind is that it is more important what mathematicians/analysts/observers can say or write about things arising from formulas than how those formulas are formally written.
Very few mathematicians can describe in ordinary words what they have worked out. They are not used to it and most of them would treat such an exercise with disdain. They leave their formulas like ingredients in the kitchen together with some mysterious scientific recipe. But they would not cook. Oh no, not them.
Cooking is for lower strata. Since cooking is not their habit, they would not taste your food either. They make abstracts for breakfast, lunch and dinner but in order not to die they allow to be fed on real food - what a horrible nuisance it must be, what a discomfort to the strict mind.
On my own experiences I can say that some of them are simply extraordinarily lazy. But smart. Yes, smart and lazy.
Experimentalists work at the back room of mathematical kitchen and do the really hard job.
A mathematician would have never made a bicycle. No way. In revenge they are not considered for Nobel prize.
I will return after some time...

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To sts

Postby Paul&Paul » Tue Jan 24, 2012 11:40 pm

One problem is to understand the mechanism behind the market changes.
Another problem is to determine the rules.
A model is to show that some rules work. But a model may not explain the machanism 9of the whole).
There is a difference between rules and mechanisms. You may have rules and formulas and even a model and not being able to understand the mechanism.
It is perhaps too early, I/you need more time and experience or luck.
We are trying to understand the logic behind non-linear behavior of a system forgetting that non-linear dynamics is counter-intuitive.
You will find this last part of the sentence almost in every book on chaos.

You mention the golden ratio. I wrote months ago that all major Fibonacci ratios are linked with the Feigenbaum constant. All of them. The proof is right in front of me. Simple and elegant.

You mention Time.
I do not want to create any more confusion about Time but I want to say that Time can create non-linearity from very simple linear incremental changes of the market (monitored for prices, naturally). And it will look VERY non-linear to the eye also.

You mentioned Time.
Time helped construct properly a model. Then years later I had to remove Time from it. In chaos time can be replaced with something which just sounds absurd. Replacable time... Polarized time. Multidimensional time.

Energy is mass. Mass is energy. There is no time here.
There is no time in fractal expansions.

I will be back some time later.

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I shall begin with something you already know

Postby Paul&Paul » Sat Jan 28, 2012 5:22 pm

before I turn to something you do not know.
EURUSD comes first because it is popular and I agreed to open this chart. The story goes back to January 13.

What is the EURUSD doing above 1.3200? Is it not barely legal?
What was the mantra of the mass media until recently?
Do you consider this justice what the EURUSD has done?

Is it EURUSD and nothing else?
What or who changed the climate?

EURUSD closed at 1.3218 with the vector orientation up.

You have seen sentences many of this kind throughout this thread.
Yet behind it hides something new which is more a mechanism than a rule.
It required an investigation and some good luck as well. You never know what
you are going to find out.

There is always a thought what if...
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Fractal burst

Postby Paul&Paul » Sat Jan 28, 2012 6:28 pm

Take a zigzag.
After Wikipedia
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zigzag
A zigzag is a pattern made up of small corners at variable angles, though constant within the zigzag, tracing a path between two parallel lines; it can be described as both jagged and fairly regular. Traditionally a "zig" points in the left direction (/) and a "zag" points right (\). From the point of view of symmetry, a regular zigzag can be generated from a simple motif like a line segment by repeated application of a glide reflection.

Consider the lines of a zigzag are not parallel but skew.
Consider that these lines either converge or diverge from one another.
Consider that these zigs and zags can be obtained mathematically.

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Fractal burst

Postby Paul&Paul » Sat Jan 28, 2012 6:47 pm

If a generator can be found for a zigzag then we would have a new type of
fractal behavior.
If a real zigzag is found which fits exactly the model, then we should expect something rare and extraordinary.

I have found it.

I called it the fractal burst.

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Fractal burst

Postby Paul&Paul » Sat Jan 28, 2012 7:12 pm

In order to detect it one needs triggers' observations for a longer period of time. There will be a trigger which interests us most for the reason that only this trigger and not some others generates a zigzag very precisely like the model.

Time between the points of the zigzag is unimportant and it will never be of the same length. This condition implies that the zigzag will look non-linear to the eye on the chart, whereas in the model it is strictly linear.

Then noticing that too many crucial things begin at some points of one chart and that the same or very similar behavior is found on other markets exactly at the same points of time, we can claim to have found a mysterious mechanism
in the functioning of chaotic systems.

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Fractal burst

Postby Paul&Paul » Sat Jan 28, 2012 7:58 pm

The fractal burst requires additional information about the system and this information is already encoded in the model.

Why the market may need it?
Triggers and their fractal expansions do not contain, it seems, any information about their hierarchy. Semafors3 can help discern some sort of hierarchy only to some an extent. We know that semafors overpaint.

A trigger responsible for the fractal burst will act like a signalman to major market players. Over a couple of days you receive confirmation point after point (of the zigzag) that should alert every conscious and active trader.
Yes, you are right, we are heading this way. Divergent lines of the zigzag not only ambush many traders but the diverging tops and bottoms can really
leave many in disarray.

A divergent zigzag weakens the public so much so that eventually both directions become questionable to it. The public hesitates the most when the final stage of the whole plan unveils right in front of their eyes.

The market drives away and takes the prices into a new territory.

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Fractal burst

Postby Paul&Paul » Sun Jan 29, 2012 5:20 am

There may be a reason for the market to imprint certain facts which are to be used in the not too distant future.

The information is unequally distributed over a length of time, preceded by a trigger. Each turn of the zigzag is a new road sign lit by a semafor3. There is enough time bought to be prepared for the events to come. Step by step, the market approaches the place and the moment where finally there have been enough zigzags misguiding the public and from there on a major development is going to take place. A massive attack. An explosion of energy.

For that development the market needed a trigger and the memory of that trigger.

The trigger occurs before any hot news is released to the media.
How much before, I will leave it to dear readers to discover, and calculate. Who the news was from? It was from the FED.

Reading the news before it breaks? Knowing the future before it becomes reality?

When the major development involves the whole market globally, you get a goose skin.
You cannot see such things in random processes. The probability of it is infinitely small. Not zero but small. So small that you would need trillions of years of waiting for it to happen.

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