My new chaos findings implemented in forex trading

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flinux
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Postby flinux » Sun Feb 13, 2011 9:36 pm

what is your forecast about EUR/JPY ?
So faith, hope, love remain, these three; but the greatest of these is love. - 1 Corinthians 13:13

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Paul&Paul
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Just a few things about EURJPY

Postby Paul&Paul » Sun Feb 13, 2011 10:11 pm

Just a few things about EURJPY.
The recent low 112.76 is pip-to-pip 4.669 of the last trigger, so it is not a mere low, it is a border and the market reacted twice buying there. It looks like poised to go to 113.72 and 114.20.
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GBPJPY soared to big figure 135.00 and took it all

Postby Paul&Paul » Tue Feb 15, 2011 1:13 pm

Refer to my earlier post.
Please refer to my GBPJPY post from February 1. Trigger C marked there (28 pips) yielded 134.23 on February 10 which is exactly 14.208 times 28. Why? Because GBPJPY is a system. Not any system but a chaotic system which exhibits very special properties and sets borders to chaos. The road to 134.23 was not a straight road. GBPJPY moved higher and retreated, moved higher and retreated. It touched 134.23 and retreated. We cannot always predict that the market will make 14.208 instead of mere 4.669. Still, when it moves away from a low due to the energy of the trigger, it does not go anywhere but it goes to a next predetermined orbit. There is a hidden order of changes and hidden borders of chaos.

One should endeavour to study what happened on the previous visit above 134.00. That was September 20 of 2010. What a war! We can see how fierce was the fight and how heavy was the selling above the big figure 134.00. 14.208 of the trigger down from that date was set at 126.86. Though no names we know who was shorting GBPJPY, today it is evident that it matters to somebody to defend those levels and some other players want to break them all the way to 135.00.

That is exactly what has happened today. Shorts crushed all the way to 135.00. Note also the defence of last resort at 134.54. In vain. Buyers took it all.
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EURCAD and its targets

Postby Paul&Paul » Thu Feb 17, 2011 2:57 am

I would like to come up with an update of EURCAD in order to see what, as of today, has been important in the dynamic of the system. From the downside 1.3284 and 1.3287 set borders, almost identical in level but from two different triggers. 1.3284 is equal to 9.1299 of a trigger from February 8. 1.3287 is a fresh low marking a key number in play. What we are seeing is that EURCAD has generated a trigger up (on the left) which incorporates both those levels. Buying occurred from 1.3274 to 1.3310, confirmed and reinforced by another spree on the right which lifted prices above 1.3369.
Both the big triggers up determined the same target level 1.3643 though obtained with different multipliers (9.1299 and 3.5699) applied. If you looked back you would see that what 1.3643 means to the market. February 9/10 marks a very heavy selling. The idea of the current effort is to go towards that level and crush shorts. The system has initialized a process, precise in energy to get there some time in the future. This is already determined in the system and by the system. As stated before, the road to a goal is never a straight line and the time needed to take 1.3643 can be made much longer by pushing the prices below 1.3287.
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NZDJPY at a glance

Postby Paul&Paul » Thu Feb 17, 2011 5:55 pm

NZDJPY did 14.208 of the small trigger which is exactly 62.84. What it meant to the market we see as we move the chart near the present.
The same 62.84 target was repeated from another trigger down (27 pips).
NZDJPY has been hovering above 62.84 for a couple of sessions. It struggles to close above 63.19. Something has been keeping NZDJPY in the brackets of 63.19-62.84. It cannot stay here for ever, though.
Three targets 63.45, 63.48, 63.56 which are 4.669 of three different triggers up would close the gap formed at the start of this week and would make shorts from February 8-10 trembling. Some time in the future NZDJPY is going to trample them, targeting 63.83 and 63.96.

The question is what actually 62.84 is defending now. There are two UPOs-repellers @ 62.69 and 62.62 near buyers' bastion from January 21. So the game is about those longs and about those shorts as well. At the moment the strength upside is reassuring the buyers, yet we need to observe that
NZDJPY is stable upwards now, in other words - easier to push prices lower.
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Last edited by Paul&Paul on Sun Mar 13, 2011 3:38 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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GBPJPY

Postby Paul&Paul » Thu Feb 17, 2011 9:13 pm

The idea of calculating targets is not only to obtain obvious TakeProfit levels in an intrinsic way. Targets set by chaos also help understand forces driving the market. It is of a particular value observing the behavior of the system on approach to them, on breaking such levels and on retreat to them. These are essentials of strategic thinking and strategic analysis. If we do not do it, then a lot of the vital information about the current system goes wasted. The information about a chaotic dynamic is too precious to be treated in a mere technical way. It goes without saying that one cannot take everything as it comes with limited margin resources. However, it may not necessarily be true about big funds who enjoy the egalitarian condition of the right to do a lot more things than a retailer/small investor. It is the funds' prerogative to do as they please and their strategy may be concentrated on aspects totally ignored by small investors.
We have already had enough evidence leading us to a very strong conviction that some price levels are more important than the others. Without higher mathematics it simply means that the markets are not random and there cannot be any talking about the so-called Brown's motion at any scale of time. Randomness would kill small animals as well as theor predators in exactly the same fashion. We know that big players, and especially entities which constitute the core of the financial system, banks, are not frequently found insolvent on account of their investments.
The rule says that well over 90 percent of individual retail margins get blown over a limited time. Do we see 90 percent of banks going bust? Definitely no.
It cannot be explained in terms of proper risk manegement. Secrets about it would have leaked long ago just to be employed worldwide by other market participants. We actually know it that there is actually not much secret about proper risk management. You may know it, you may apply it, yet, you may lose your whole margin, rather sooner than later.
Only special information about the behavior of the system can give an edge in the game. You would be banned forever to cross the threshold of a casino anywhere in the world not just with the chaos findings but with any theory findings based on real time experiments to increase the probability of winning a multi-million dollar jackpot. I am personally not sure to what an extent such a ban violates the constitutional rights of a free man in a democratic system and the free market rules, but maybe I am some kind of a naive person or I chose wrong adjectives. I suspect gambling is not the only business which legally bans scientists but welcomes stupidos.
The new chart of GBPJPY has got several distinct features we should always be looking for. You do not need to know why or how, but you need to know that 134.22 has been a very important level. Right? Treat it climatically, when it snows make shure it is snow, when it rains make shure it is not drought but rain. When it rains cats and dogs, forget the animals, keep to the water pouring over your head. When the wind blows, make shure that there is a direction, do not be fooled by a swirl here or there.
The blue triangles mark two places where the market reacted to 134.22. The first zigzag was a battle won by the buyers. The second reaction was much different in its nature. The longs did win after all. A slump to 134.22 was an opportunity for some players to challenge shorting again. What could be the idea of keeping prices above 134.22 for a longer time? Well, this could be in the interest of some option sellers (issuers) who wish to protect/eliminate their (unlimited) risk. So keeping prices above 134.22 may not be what we generally think about it. Conversely you may say that keeping prices above 134.22 serves the purpose of stabilizing the system.
I inserted all the required information about the future targets in the new chart. So reference may please be made to the happenings near those levels with a very firm reservation that no talk takes place about probabilities. It is not stochastic. What you see is true, do not suspect hidden traps. There is no layer of another hidden order overlaying the one you have got in front of your eyes. There is enough complexity in this one.
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GBPJPY touched 135.48

Postby Paul&Paul » Fri Feb 18, 2011 8:51 pm

GBPJPY touched 135.48, a border set by a chaotic dynamic. It looked hot indeed when GBPJPY did so and retreated below big figure 135.00.
On the way to 135.48 GBPJPY took 135.15 (a UPO-repeller, now turned into a UPO-attractor).
When the market returns to a UPO and crosses it, it means that it is going to return to it at least one more time. I have counted it crossed 135.15 ten times.

The last trigger is down with the target familiar already from a couple of earlier triggers. We have got 133.53/57/61/65 and a UPO-repeller @133.43.
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EURJPY

Postby Paul&Paul » Fri Feb 18, 2011 9:36 pm

Just a few things about EURJPY.
The low 112.76 was pip-to-pip 4.669, not a mere low, but a border and the market reacted twice buying there. It looked like poised to go to 113.72 and 114.20.
Despite a dip, EURJPY reached 113.72 and crossed this UPO several times up and down. It means that it an important UPO stabilizing the market.
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EURGBP

Postby Paul&Paul » Sun Feb 20, 2011 9:20 pm

I continue to share some findings about EURGBP this time that I find titillating in some way.
The first chart enclosed incorporates almost a month and it looks really dense with objects added by hand.
Actually what we can see is some wave pattern 1-2-3 from the Elliott point of view. Wave1 was an extended wave.
From the point of view of a chaotic system again we observe that the first marked trigger down occured before the top from where the slide began. Before the top and a little below the top as well. 14.208 of that trigger determined the area of recent lows - 0.8370. We can see that the area of 0.8370/60 was confirmed by five independent projections from five independent triggers. No wonder that the market tried to regain some of the lost territory after it dipped there on Feb. 15 and Feb.18.
The last trigger was up and with a huge energy capable of lifting prices back again to where they were on Jan.26.
Below the area 0.8370/60 there is a UPO@ 0.8337, and I can imagine how many stoplosses are hidden there. At the moment we can see that the system invented some technical protection/defence.
From the upside noted are a few UPOs@ 0.8475, 0.8483, 0.8513 of which 0.8513 is the most important. The market is going to return there sooner or later, not resting but to take 0.8546 which is equal to 4.669 of one of the triggers. I judge it from the fact that 3.5699 was breached on Feb.10.
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NZDUSD

Postby Paul&Paul » Sun Feb 20, 2011 9:56 pm

NZDUSD reached 0.7631/36 which are targets from three independent triggers. The last trigger was down.
To understand the meaning of the recent lows, projections were made from several triggers starting from Feb.8.
We can see that four trigger aimed at 0.7525/15 and those targets formed a base for a bounce off the lows.
Similar targets from different triggers give a lot to think. It could be quite natural. It could also be some meticulous strategy plotted by invisible hands.
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