My new chaos findings implemented in forex trading

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Paul&Paul
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EURCAD and its targets

Postby Paul&Paul » Wed Jan 19, 2011 9:23 pm

EURCAD shows how 14.208 can yield the same target as 4.669.
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Paul&Paul
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A new trigger on GBPJPY

Postby Paul&Paul » Wed Jan 19, 2011 10:45 pm

A new trigger up@131.23.
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Paul&Paul
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Where a trend begins.

Postby Paul&Paul » Thu Jan 20, 2011 6:29 pm

Where a trend begins.

This is not a philosophical nor a political issue.
Financial markets are open systems. Dynamical, non-linear, chaotic, deterministic. Opposite to static, linear, stochastic and unpredictable.
The distinct feature of chaotic systems is a hidden order inside veiled with
a cloud of seemingly random changes.
Clouds are known for their ability to cover vast regions of solid matter with
almost no matter.
Clouds or fog can form quite naturally, though artificially too. The sky of financial markets is never completely free of obscurity.

I think that for a pretty long time, the myth prevailed about the causal effects of certain developments, both direct and indirect. Many observational studies were based on large databases in an attempt to estimate the causal effects of some new data or exposure relative to the release of important information.

Notice how difficult it is to quantify importance, and how easy it is to ignore some factors. Each time you assign higher importance to a certain fact, by contrast you diminish the role and impact of all the others. You don not have a properly constructed model but you play with certain variables like with toys. Analysts play their toys, cars and dolls, quite freely. They use special props, build a stage and begin a made-up story.
You are to believe that their players act sincerely and that the picture you get truly reflects the reality.

Now, we come to the question of what reality is. If not able to explain it or describe it, we would have to end the discussion at once, now. Because we need to talk about the same thing. And the thing will be the same, if it exists in a describable and objective way.

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GBPJPY 1 pip shy of 132.33, equal to 3.5699 of the trigger 1

Postby Paul&Paul » Fri Jan 21, 2011 8:38 pm

Recall the last post where I marked a projection of the trigger up @ 131.23. The level 132.33 equals 1 times 3.5699.

Kindly notice that the trigger was clouded by black candles for more than ten hours and one could have wrongly assumed that it was invalidated (prices dropped below the trigger 61.8%).

The market kept the memory of the trigger though, and eventually GBPJPY rose to 132.32. The live experiment proved unbelievable precision of chaotic behavior of the system.

132.32 is 1 pip shy of the 3.5699 target.
First came a trigger, then came an Elliott wave.
The Elliott wave pattern 1-2-3 was caused by the trigger. The top of wave3 is our 3.5699.

Where do trends begin? Now you know that trends begin much much earlier than the Elliott theory stipulated.
I told you that you will never look at the markets in the same way after the perusal of these posts.

It does not make the Elliott theory completely obsolete. But it changes it in a most distinguished way.

If trends begin much earlier than the beginning of wave1 one may put another important question. Where do trends end. Are wave3 and wave5
formed only after a hidden trigger down occurs, or a hidden trigger down occurs with a lag after wave3 and wave5 with a possibility that the tops/lows of those waves are exceeded.
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noushina
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Postby noushina » Sat Jan 22, 2011 2:33 am

Hi Paul. Thank you for your intriguing thread.

I see that if one calculates the red chaos range that one merely takes the number of pips from top to bottom, and multiplies it by those 3.5699 and 4.699 numbers and then adds that number of pips onto the bottom or top of the "chaos range". in order to get the lines you label as 3.5699 and 4.669.

So could you tell us please: How do we calculate the top and bottom of the red "chaos range"?

Thank You!

edit: I see GF1 asked the same question on page 2 w/o an answer.
I have been playing with just picking what appeared to be areas of consolidation as my "Red Area" opting for the smaller size if in doubt and then looking at 3 to 4 times that range with the 3.5 target area being VERY often a good target point.

I am sure that few here understand higher math. We mostly are interested in practicality and usefulness. I think as a way to pick a target at 3.5 times the range of consolidation is highly useful.

I don't think for practical and useful purposes the precise 3.667 & 4.667 matter, especially since the "red areas" appear to chosen in a somewhat subjective manner.

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Right and wrong

Postby Paul&Paul » Sun Jan 23, 2011 9:58 pm

I don't think for practical and useful purposes the precise 3.5699 & 4.667 matter, especially since the "red areas" appear to chosen in a somewhat subjective manner.


noushina, you are right and wrong.
Right that because few understand higher math, people mostly are interested in practicality and usefulness. I can assure you that what I wrote in a descriptive way looks ways more complex in the theory of chaos. So anybody who grudges this thread is difficult exaggerates for no reason.

Please do not introduce new standards to universal and very important constants like 3.5699 or 4.669 by rounding them off or by asigning to them new values.

There is no place to subjectiveness here. No place for adjustments, overpainting and the like. Red areas are objective. To me it would not make any sense to experiment with subjectiveness or fuzzy logic.

Take a sequence of the following letters: bdazlxnoushinabhuymut.
Would you choose noushina to check or huymut? You would check sth familiar for a reason. Remember we deal with a deterministic system, not with probabilities.

Incidentally, once you mentioned in your post May's 700 point sudden share crash in the US was caused by a single trader's computer program, according to the US trading watchdog the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).

The so-called "flash crash" on 6 May saw the Dow Jones index fall 10% in just minutes.
I noted sth similar in effect a couple of times on different markets.
I am shure that the practitioners of chaos control would have a lot to tell.
Controlled instant crashes is no-risk money. Terrorism? Ney. That's not a proper name. G8 had set up a special committee to tackle problems of this kind.

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noushina
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Postby noushina » Sun Jan 23, 2011 11:38 pm

Thank you.

I think we all REALLY want to know how your red range is determined? Would you humor us please?

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...

Postby Paul&Paul » Mon Jan 24, 2011 8:46 am

I watch and analyze the attractor, and apply symbolic dynamics.

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noushina
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Re: ...

Postby noushina » Mon Jan 24, 2011 1:10 pm

Paul&Paul wrote:I watch and analyze the attractor, and apply symbolic dynamics.

LOL. That's pretty much the type of answer I expected. You surely must know that almost nobody understands.

Can you explain how to determine where the attractor is and how to apply symbolic dynamics? A black box method that is usable by the unwashed masses?
Last edited by noushina on Mon Jan 24, 2011 1:42 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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flinux
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Postby flinux » Mon Jan 24, 2011 1:40 pm

I think there is much difference between 3.566 and 3.5!
You have to remember that we are on a non-linear chaotic system and even a small variation creates big differencies.
So faith, hope, love remain, these three; but the greatest of these is love. - 1 Corinthians 13:13

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