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Paul&Paul
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Yet another giant trigger down on EURUSD

Postby Paul&Paul » Sun May 27, 2012 1:24 pm

expanded more than 5.8664 to 1.2650.
9.1299 is at 1.2405.

A trigger down from Nov.22 (65 pips) at 14.208 yields 1.2532.
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Paul&Paul
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EURJPY between 100.12 and 99.06

Postby Paul&Paul » Mon May 28, 2012 7:19 pm

EURJPY between 100.12 and 99.06, both being 14.208 of two triggers down.
The UPOs from the upside are
101.12
101.37
101.66.
Below 100.12 EURJPY is very unstable downwards.
Within the marked range prices fluctuate without distinct direction.
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Paul&Paul
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GBPUSD

Postby Paul&Paul » Mon May 28, 2012 8:09 pm

GBPUSD expanded 2.4220 times the size of the trigger down and no UPO repeller occurred there.
Then GBPUSD went sideways and even a UPO @ 1.5658 showed from the downside.
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Paul&Paul
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DJIA as on 29.05

Postby Paul&Paul » Mon May 28, 2012 10:30 pm

DJIA.
Language becomes really a problem when you try to translate chaotic mathematics into something more palatable.
What is important is the proper perspective.
Absolutely essential is overcoming the nature of thinking in a contrarian way. Why contrarians are natural? Because the calculation where the market might return to is almost instant and simple.
To think anti-contrarian is much more difficult because the current chart is blank to the right. The future price levels may be above recent highs or below
recent lows. People are naturally afraid to point to something like a black hole. Instead they would rather refer to a nearest retracement which corresponds to some candle from a near past.
DJIA looks heavy under 12528 and 12486. Both lines are UPOs. It is clear that below 12528 and on the approach to it selling was heavy. DJIA failed to close firm on 12528 and that is negative. Bearishness will become more pronounced when DJIA drops below 12396 and more specifically below
the UPO from the downside at 12384.
Still this heaviness is not destroying longs yet. The index is above the 50% line (Fibo stretched on two UPOs).
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Paul&Paul
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EURUSD

Postby Paul&Paul » Sat Jun 02, 2012 4:02 pm

EURUSD.
On May 28 a trigger down of 25 pips began expanding during early European hours. There were much older triggers down and they were tackled earlier.
During the descent a number of UPOs occurred
1.2570
1.2525
1.2485
1.2441
1.2396
1.2355.
The said trigger expanded 9.1299 times its size and more but did not plummet to 14.208=1.2232.
The slide was interrupted by the release of the US data, weaker than expected, on Friday and the tone at the close was up.
EURUSD returned to the UPO @ 1.2441 yet it failed to keep firm. Caution prevailed and lucky longs were taking profit above 1.2430.
People do have the right to be told to what to do. Particularly women should have their women's hour and be able to profit freely during a casual talk about glamourous issues like lipstick and really beautiful vistas of life.
Oh, those fancy things, difficult to explain. I am not shure anybody can prepare a fruitful response.
So here we are, we have begun with M30 charts and we may see other charts as well. Maybe the grass will look greener there.
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EURUSD M3 charts

Postby Paul&Paul » Sat Jun 02, 2012 4:31 pm

EURUSD M3 charts.
The three semafors3 on the left. Well, that' s obviously some shock wave.
The signalman waved some of the quickest changes of the train route to
avoid an accident.
Underneath there was that US data release. In a crucial moment there is no real common understanding of numbers.
From the economic point of view it is obvious. From the political point of view it is less obvious. From the market point of view it is never obvious.
Attachments
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Paul&Paul
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AUDUSD

Postby Paul&Paul » Sat Jun 02, 2012 5:22 pm

AUDUSD looked unnerved on Friday afternoon show.
Before that it exanded 14.208 times a trigger down and then below.
Friday ended with a tone down.
AUDUSD is between two UPOs:
9710
and 9668
and the market is bound to return to them some tme in future.
There is a farther UPO from the upside at 9811.
Attachments
audusd2.06.gif
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Paul&Paul
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NZDUSD

Postby Paul&Paul » Sat Jun 02, 2012 7:28 pm

NZDUSD.
The tone is down at the end of the week.
A small trigger up from Tokyo hours yielded 7562=4.669.
This is exactly the same line as that which marks a UPO.
We can see three distinct selling activity near it and below.
There is no strength in the chaotic behavior of NZDUSD of recent days and so we may expect the pair to extend losses towards a next fractal target, 9.1299=7417.
The US data release on Friday did not change the overall picture.
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AUDUSD M3

Postby Paul&Paul » Sat Jun 02, 2012 8:23 pm

AUDUSD M3.
Before the US data release AUDUSD had completed two targets
9605 and 9595 from two independent triggers down.
Then a sizeable trigger up (32 pips) emerged.
Such a short scale of time but triggers occur of size indeed.
Attachments
audusd2.06m3.gif
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Paul&Paul
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The Chicago school has experienced an intellectual collapse

Postby Paul&Paul » Sun Jun 03, 2012 4:39 am

due to the school's belief in human rationality. They contributed to bubbles such as the recent financial crisis.
What rationality is in the fractal expansions of financial markets?
Is it more rational to expect the market to expand 4.669 or 9.1299 or maybe 14.208 times the size of its trigger?
What equilibria are to be sought when markets constantly evolve away from local balance levels?
The concept of rational expectations is dead just like the rational investors are bust. An army of rational speculators is an army of suiciders.
Linearity and simple causality look rational. Modelling looks rational.
Non-linearity and complexity look irrational.
A model with a few variables looks rational.
A model with a few thousand variables is irrational. However, the latter seems closer depicting reality.
Rational can be very unreal.

Have you ever thought of inflation as goods? Once exported, domestically almost non-existent?
Look how far from being dissipative are inflation trends worldwide in various countries.

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