My new chaos findings implemented in forex trading

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Paul&Paul
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EURUSD with a useless SMA15

Postby Paul&Paul » Fri May 04, 2012 5:02 pm

EURUSD below shows how many times it closed above and below the moving average. You may be sick of it, and right you may deserve a better treatment.
Still I can announce that the same SMA can serve as a very good forecaster provided the candlestick data has been filtered, discarding over 60 percent of it.
The number of crosses is reduced by a similar ratio.
The crucial signal is marked with a white arrow. EURUSD was then at 1.3232.
In order to implement an SMA of the length of 15, filtering required sampling
several hundred elements.
Thus the MA15 used is a moving average and a derivative of a complex function at the same time.
There are multiple ways to filter out unnecessary data.
"unnecessary" means
not possessing designated features or not fulfilling designated conditions of symbolic dynamics.
Filtering can be automated.
Any finite system susceptible to mathematical analysis can be represented
as a causal set. It should have a natural structure where information appears organized. Such structures can be associated into units called blocks and structures described by block systems analyzed.
A natural hierarchical structure can be found by emergent inference. Observed phenomena of emergence and self-organization have a causal relationship and they explain local properties and interactions.
Emergent inference cannot be simulated by a program, it is not an algorithm. You do not need to know the nature of elements chosen. Their nature is irrelevant. In other words you do not need to be a mathematician or a physicist. You only need to use intelligence, study emergent behavior and feedback.
What you used and found will be natural for the system created.
to
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Paul&Paul
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A causal set can be powerful

Postby Paul&Paul » Fri May 04, 2012 9:07 pm

if sampling is big enough.
One cannot expect to sniff out a dramatic change with a small sample, like found in default settings of some indicators. Those settings are made small for one reason which is not a mathematical reason. You can see more details with the naked eye when settings are small numbers. It is practical but it does not mean that it is right.
From small numbers you will want to extrapolate into future. It will be as good as looking at the road just a few metres ahead and a few centimetres behind.
A good perspective requires more than that.
You cannot rely on the local temperature only. The room thermometer will not tell you what it is a few hundred metres away from where you are. People can afford a few thermometres around their house, plus also some readings from the internet. They do not know any formulas or functions for their analysis. Still they can observe and adjust to the complex conditions of the weather without any scientific tools. This is the consequence of emergent inference.
Similarly, people can trade complex financial instruments. The nature of the elements of such instruments is irrelevant. They may not even know what the euro is in fact. They trade EUR, a three-letter something, against USD, another three-letter something.
When you do not see what EUR is or USD is, and you do not see the price,
you may be a very good strategist and dynamics pundit.
Just like you observe the temperature: a little below or a little above or much below or much above something. You focus longer only if you cannot believe your eyes. You cannot believe your eyes BEFORE you know the reading exactly. Because people react stronger to changes than to single numbers.

Paul&Paul
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That stellar trigger down from April 30

Postby Paul&Paul » Sun May 06, 2012 1:11 pm

expan ded 14.208 its size to 7943. The semafor3 began repainting from 5.8664 if I recall well.
From one semafor3 at the top to a new semafor at the bottom the span is 14.208 times the size of the trigger in an almost simple wave.
Quite a lot of fixed zigzags mark some borders of chaos.
Triggers and fractal expansions explain why those zigzags take place at all.
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Paul&Paul
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NZDUSD

Postby Paul&Paul » Sun May 06, 2012 4:05 pm

NZDUSD is unstable downwards. Friday ended with a tone down.
Here we have 7943 and this is not all from the downside as earlier two triggers 27 pips and 70 pips suggest more declines in future.
The nearest level is 7911=14.208 and for the giant trigger down 7753=9.1299.
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Paul&Paul
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That big trigger down of 76 pips on EURJPY

Postby Paul&Paul » Wed May 09, 2012 9:21 pm

has expanded 3.5699 times its size to 103.02.
Two dostinct selling areas are marked below 103.77 and 103.31.
The higher situated line is a UPO.
4.6690of the same trigger down gives 102.19.
A broader picture is on another chart.
EURJPY is under a selling pressure. Currently the MA15 is at 103.50 while spot rate is 102.98 now.
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Some attempts to revive the euro vs the dollar

Postby Paul&Paul » Wed May 09, 2012 9:49 pm

are being seen but they are insignificant so far.
Slides extended beyond 9.1299 of a trigger down seen on an H4 chart, for which 14.208=1.2752 .
That top at 1.3265 which was 4.669 of a trigger up remained strong resistance. The dollar is king. Greece is the most polluting market fuel today.
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Paul&Paul
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GBPUSD

Postby Paul&Paul » Sat May 12, 2012 7:11 am

GBPUSD expanded 14.208 of a 15 pip trigger down.
At the same time 1.6062 is 4.699 times of a new trigger down.
Friday ended with a tone down. GBPUSD closed at 1.6073, while the MA15 is at 1.6103.

T15 from April 30 occurred during early European hours.
The second trigger emerged during opening Australian hours.
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Last edited by Paul&Paul on Sat May 12, 2012 9:31 am, edited 1 time in total.

Paul&Paul
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EURJPY

Postby Paul&Paul » Sat May 12, 2012 7:30 am

EURJPY.
The huge trigger down of 76 pips when expands 5.8664 times its size is bound to wipe out long positions sitting (uncomfortably) there.
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Paul&Paul
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EURJPY ended with a tone up

Postby Paul&Paul » Sat May 12, 2012 7:42 am

but did not complete destruction of longs visible till 102.07.
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GBPJPY

Postby Paul&Paul » Sat May 12, 2012 5:14 pm

GBPJPY.
There is a giant trigger down from May 2 of 71 pips. Its 3.5699=127.45.
Before that we have a cotarget 127.67/66 and the newest 4.669=127.57.
Friday ended with a tone down.
It closed at 128.44 while the MA15 is at 128.69.
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