GBPUSD River Theory

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downrivertrader
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GBPUSD River Theory

Postby downrivertrader » Tue Mar 06, 2007 11:20 pm

As expected in our analysis from yesterday, the 9175 level held, and price moved up to 9443 almost exactly. I continue to hold longs on this pair from below the 9251 level. Please take a look at the monthly PDA charts if you have a chance before planning trades.


I expect we may move up and test the River Level at 9382. We will need resolution of this area before our next directional flow occurs.

Aggressive Traders can set up shorts with the supply crowd in the 9347 / 9382 River area. Risk would be above the River Level. My target would be 9251 where I would cover and look to establish longs for a move up. I favor longs out of the 9251 Zone -2 level.


A move above River at 9382 targets 9443 where I would cover and stand aside. Risk on this long would be below 9251.

I am longer term bullish this pair, however until River is resolved, I am short term Neutral.


NEUTRAL UNTIL RIVER IS RESOLVED AT 9382

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Last edited by downrivertrader on Wed Mar 07, 2007 1:00 am, edited 1 time in total.

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Postby moneymarkets » Wed Mar 07, 2007 12:27 am

What indicator is that that you are using???? :)

downrivertrader
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Postby downrivertrader » Wed Mar 07, 2007 12:42 am

It is not an indicator. I do not use indicators as they have no value. They are drawn from manually inputed supply and demand levels. I wrote a program to plot the levels on the charts.

moneymarkets wrote:What indicator is that that you are using???? :)

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Postby TheRumpledOne » Wed Mar 07, 2007 2:20 am

Please post the program and/or the formula so all may benefit.

Thank you.
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Postby downrivertrader » Thu Mar 08, 2007 12:28 am

I continue to hold longs on this pair from below the 9251 level. Please take a look at the monthly PDA charts if you have a chance before planning trades.


I expect we may move up and test the River Level which comes in today at 9386. We will need resolution of this area before our next directional flow occurs. The move is likely to come soon so be nimble.


Traders can look to establish longs ahead of the 9251 area and targets are 9386 and 9443 where I would exit in the short term. Risk would be below the 9251 level understanding that there is good demand ahead of the 9200 level.


Aggressive Traders can set up shorts with the supply crowd in the 9347 / 9386 River area. Risk would be above the River Level. My target would be 9251 where I would cover and look to establish longs for a move up. I favor longs out of the 9251 Zone -2 level.
I am longer term bullish this pair, however until River is resolved, I am short term Neutral.


NEUTRAL UNTIL RIVER IS RESOLVED AT 9386

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Postby TheRumpledOne » Thu Mar 08, 2007 4:19 am

downrivertrader wrote:It is not an indicator. I do not use indicators as they have no value. They are drawn from manually inputed supply and demand levels. I wrote a program to plot the levels on the charts.

moneymarkets wrote:What indicator is that that you are using???? :)


downrivertrader:

Please provide the calculation for supply & demand and the program you are using to plot the levels on the charts. It's TradeStation, so it's code you can post.

Pirates share the "booty" with all other pirates. Otherwise... well, you know the PIRATE RULES...LOL!!
IT'S NOT WHAT YOU TRADE, IT'S HOW YOU TRADE IT!



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Postby downrivertrader » Sun Mar 11, 2007 7:13 pm

Last week, I recommended setting up longs around the 9251 area. If you are long, then stay long as I continue to look for a move up to River level at 9383 and on to Transition at 9594. This would represent a move of approximately 201 points. Please take a look at the updated Monthly Price Distribution Analysis for this pair to get a longer term overview of the suspected move.


Traders should continue to look to establish longs on a move down to the 9251 area. We may get a push through this level down closer to 9200 which would represent an excellent buying opportunity. Set you risk area below 9175, which would indicate that this view is incorrect in the near term. Upside targets are 9383, then 9443 where I would expect strong supply to come in the market. Give this area some room to build value and look to reset for the continued move up. You could also take partial profits at this level and then re-establish longs on a continuation through the 9443 level looking for 9594.

NEUTRAL UNTIL RIVER IS RESOLVED AT 9383.

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RuGO
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Postby RuGO » Mon Mar 12, 2007 12:29 am

Avery,

The primary zones (solid lines) appear to match the mothly Pivot & S/R zones. The minor zones (dashes) appear to split that distance... However, I could be wrong!

I believe you have coded something along those lines, and if not, Chris Kryza's fileshare should have the files you want.

Regards,

Russ

TheRumpledOne wrote:
downrivertrader wrote:It is not an indicator. I do not use indicators as they have no value. They are drawn from manually inputed supply and demand levels. I wrote a program to plot the levels on the charts.

moneymarkets wrote:What indicator is that that you are using???? :)


downrivertrader:

Please provide the calculation for supply & demand and the program you are using to plot the levels on the charts. It's TradeStation, so it's code you can post.

Pirates share the "booty" with all other pirates. Otherwise... well, you know the PIRATE RULES...LOL!!

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Postby TheRumpledOne » Mon Mar 12, 2007 5:53 am

Thanks RuGO.
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downrivertrader
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Postby downrivertrader » Mon Mar 12, 2007 11:50 am

The static levels are not monthly pivots, although they may be very similar depending on your calculation method. I use the monthly chart for these calcs.

Avery,

Why are you so intent on figuring out the math for these? Don't you have your own system that is successful? Just trying to understand. YOu can email me if you would rather. I have a blogsite and an email button there.

http://www.downrivertrader.squarespace.com

DRT

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