Daily analysis from FXOpen

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Market Analysis: Gold Price Dips From $2K While Crude Oil Price Recovers


Gold price surged toward the $2,000 zone before the bears appeared. Crude oil price is attempting a recovery wave above the $75.00 zone.

Important Takeaways for Gold and Oil Prices Analysis Today

• Gold price started a steady increase from the $1,965 zone against the US Dollar.
  
• A key bearish trend line is forming with resistance at $1,995 on the hourly chart of gold at FXOpen.
  
• Crude oil prices started a decent recovery wave from the $73.80 support.
  
• There is a connecting bearish trend line forming with resistance near $77.00 on the hourly chart of XTI/USD at FXOpen.

Gold Price Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart of Gold at FXOpen, the price found support near the $1,965 zone. The price remained in a bullish zone and started a strong increase above $1,985.

There was a decent move above the 50-hour simple moving average. The bulls pushed the price above the $1,985 and $1,995 resistance levels. Finally, the price tested the $2,005 zone before the bears appeared.



There was a minor downside correction below $2,000 and the RSI dipped below 50. There was a move below the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $1,965 swing low to the $2,007 high.

Initial support on the downside is near the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $1,965 swing low to the $2,007 high at $1,985. The first major support is near the $1,975 zone.

If there is a downside break below the $1,975 support, the price might decline further. In the stated case, the price might drop toward the $1,965 support.

Immediate resistance is near a key bearish trend line at $1,995 and the 50-hour simple moving average. The next major resistance is near the $2,005 level. An upside break above the $2,005 resistance could send Gold price toward $2,020. Any more gains may perhaps set the pace for an increase toward the $2,032 level.


This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

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Market Analysis: GBP/USD Rallies While EUR/GBP Slides Below Support


GBP/USD is gaining pace above the 1.2575 resistance. EUR/GBP declined heavily below the 0.8720 and 0.8695 support levels.


Important Takeaways for GBP/USD and EUR/GBP Analysis Today

• The British Pound is attempting a fresh increase above 1.2600.
  
• There is a key bullish trend line forming with support near 1.2575 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD at FXOpen.
  
• EUR/GBP is trading in a bearish zone below the 0.8720 pivot level.
  
• There is a major bearish trend line forming with resistance near 0.8695 on the hourly chart at FXOpen.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart of GBP/USD at FXOpen, the pair remained well-bid above the 1.2450 level. As mentioned in the previous analysis, the British Pound started a decent increase above the 1.2500 zone against the US Dollar.

The bulls were able to push the pair above the 50-hour simple moving average and 1.2530. The pair even climbed above 1.2575 and traded as high as 1.2615. It is now consolidating gains above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 1.2449 swing low to the 1.2615 high.



On the upside, the GBP/USD chart indicates that the pair is facing resistance near 1.2615. The next major resistance is near 1.2640.

A close above the 1.2640 resistance zone could open the doors for a move toward 1.2700. Any more gains might send GBP/USD toward 1.2740.

On the downside, there is a key support forming near a bullish trend line at 1.2575. If there is a downside break below 1.2575, the pair could accelerate lower. The next major support is near the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 1.2449 swing low to the 1.2615 high at 1.2530.

The next key support is seen near 1.2510, below which the pair could test 1.2450. Any more losses could lead the pair toward the 1.2370 support.

This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

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Market Analysis: Natural Gas Prices Fall to More than 2-month Lows


Yesterday, XNG/USD quotes dropped below the 2,900 level for the first time since mid-September. This was helped by the fact that the NatGasWeather weather forecasting model late last week showed a cooling trend in December in the US, but this was replaced by warming over the weekend.

According to analyst forecasts from Analysts Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co., published on Monday:
-> natural gas reserves at the end of winter could be 2 trillion cubic feet (previously forecast 1.9 trillion);
-> price could be USD 2.75 (previous forecast was USD 3 or less).



Meanwhile, the US Natural Gas price chart shows that:
-> the price of natural gas is near the lower border of the channel (shown in blue), which can provide support;
-> the MACD indicator indicates divergence (a sign of weakening selling pressure).

Thus, although the market has been in a bearish trend since the beginning of November (shown in red), the chart shows bullish signs - it is possible that the price in the short term may rise to the upper limit of the red channel. The likelihood of this scenario will increase if the weather forecasting model indicates a cold snap.

This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

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EUR/USD Analysis: Price Reaches the Level of 1.1000


Before yesterday's trading session, the last time 1 euro was 1.1 USD was in the first half of August.

The growth of the rate was facilitated by the weakening of the dollar, which occurred against the background of the words of Christopher Waller, a member of the Fed Board of Governors, who is known for his hawkish policies. But he has already softened his position.

"I am increasingly confident that policy is currently well positioned to slow the economy and get inflation back to 2 percent," he said yesterday, however, adding that if the decline in inflation continues “for a few more months... three months, four months, five months... we can start reducing the discount rate just because inflation is lower.”

The expected rate cut could mark the beginning of a new period of looser monetary policy. Therefore, financial markets reacted by increasing the prices of currencies relative to the dollar - in particular, the euro reached a psychological level.



The chart shows that in 2023 the price of EUR/USD interacted with it several times, which caused, among other things, trend reversals. As the arrows show:


-> a bearish reversal took place in February;
-> in May the price entered consolidation, but exited it in a downward direction;
-> the level worked as a resistance in June.

The sharp rise in July above the 1.100 level turned into an equally rapid fall.
Taking into account the above facts, there is reason to assume a scenario in which the level of 1.100 will once again in 2023 resist the appreciation of the euro. Moreover, this is already noticeable, since on Wednesday the price exceeded Tuesday’s high and turned down (a sign of a false bullish breakout).


This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

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BTC/USD Analysis: New High for the Year Shows Bulls Are Indecisive


During November, the price of bitcoin increased by approximately 10% in anticipation of the launch of a bitcoin ETF. But the positive sentiment of crypto investors is seriously overshadowed by news regarding Binance:

-> Changpeng Zhao resigned as head of Binance.US, pleading guilty to money laundering charges. He also agreed to pay $50 million in a lawsuit from the US Department of Justice, and his company will have to pay $4.3 billion. This fine to Binance was one of the largest in the history of punishment of corporations. In addition, Zhao faces up to 10 years in prison. The judges banned him from leaving the United States until the proceedings are completed.

-> Cristiano Ronaldo was sued for $1 billion for advertising Binance. This was done by people who claim they suffered losses by buying unregistered securities that the sports star was promoting.



Meanwhile, the BTC/USD chart shows signs that demand forces are losing confidence, although the price is moving within an ascending channel (shown in blue).

Notice that the November 29 top was only a few dollars higher than the previous November 24 top. This short-term excess suggests that there is no sustainable predominance of demand over supply in the market around the level of $38 thousand per Bitcoin, and the top on November 29 is nothing more than a bull trap.

In such conditions, perhaps more attention should be paid to the idea of ​​testing the lower boundary of the current channel.

This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

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Market Analysis: The USD/CAD Rate Drops to Its Minimum of 2 Months


This morning, 1 USD was selling for less than 1.354 Canadian dollars – for the first time since October 1st.

The strengthening of the Canadian dollar and the weakening of the USD was facilitated by the news published yesterday:

-> Canada's real gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 0.1% in September, which exceeded analysts' expectations and reduced the relevance of the recession scenario in Canada.
-> The number of applications for unemployment benefits in the US for the week amounted to 218k (a week earlier it was 211k), which may indicate a cooling of the US economy.
-> The price index for personal consumption expenditures (PCE) fell to 3% from the previous value of 3.4%. While 3% remains too high to declare victory over inflation, it marks a new series low that is sure to reduce the likelihood of a Fed rate hike.

In our previous analysis of the USD/CAD market, we wrote that the price could form a rebound from support in the area of 1.36625. However, the rebound to point E was very weak, and after the breakdown, the level 1.36625 showed resistance properties.


At the same time, the situation on the chart looks bearish:

-> price dynamics formed decreasing lows A-B-C-D;
-> the bullish trend line (shown in black) is broken;
-> price dynamics form new lows and a downward channel (shown in red).


If we assume that the market will recover from oversold conditions (the RSI indicator is close to going below the 0.3 level), the USD/CAD rate in this case may find resistance from the median line of the channel and the level of 1.36625.

This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

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EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY Analysis: US Dollar Weakens after Fed Chairman's Comments


Today, investors are assessing the speech of US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, who indicated that the interest rate is currently at a restrictive level, but the regulator allows for the possibility of another increase if necessary. The manufacturing business activity index from S&P Global in the US remained at 49.4 points, which coincided with analysts' forecasts, and the same indicator from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) remained at 46.7 points, contrary to forecasts for growth to 47.6 points. The manufacturing index of gradual acceleration of inflation from the ISM in November sharply increased from 45.1 points to 49.9 points, while experts expected 46.2 points. In the US today, statistics on the volume of manufacturing orders will be presented: in October, the figure may lose 2.5% after growing by 2.8% in the previous month.

EUR/USD

The EUR/USD pair is showing a moderate decline. According to the EUR/USD technical analysis, the euro is testing the 1.0870 level for a breakdown downwards, but activity on the market remains restrained. Investors today are watching publications from Germany, where exports in October adjusted from -2.5% to 0.2%, and imports from -1.9% to -1.2%, while the trade surplus widened from 16.7 billion euros to 17.0 billion euros, signaling the recovery of the national economy, despite the long-term hawkish course of the ECB. In addition, representatives of the European regulator, as well as its head Christine Lagarde, are expected to speak during the day. Officials may refine their plans for the monetary policy outlook given that inflation continues to show fairly consistent signs of decline.

Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0892, a break higher could trigger a rise towards 1.0977. On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0822, a break below could take the pair towards 1.0758.


Based on last week's lows, a new downward channel has formed. Now, the price is in the middle of the channel and may continue to decline after approaching the upper border of the channel.



This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

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EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY Analysis: US Dollar Weakens after Fed Chairman's Comments


Today, investors are assessing the speech of US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, who indicated that the interest rate is currently at a restrictive level, but the regulator allows for the possibility of another increase if necessary. The manufacturing business activity index from S&P Global in the US remained at 49.4 points, which coincided with analysts' forecasts, and the same indicator from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) remained at 46.7 points, contrary to forecasts for growth to 47.6 points. The manufacturing index of gradual acceleration of inflation from the ISM in November sharply increased from 45.1 points to 49.9 points, while experts expected 46.2 points. In the US today, statistics on the volume of manufacturing orders will be presented: in October, the figure may lose 2.5% after growing by 2.8% in the previous month.

EUR/USD

The EUR/USD pair is showing a moderate decline. According to the EUR/USD technical analysis, the euro is testing the 1.0870 level for a breakdown downwards, but activity on the market remains restrained. Investors today are watching publications from Germany, where exports in October adjusted from -2.5% to 0.2%, and imports from -1.9% to -1.2%, while the trade surplus widened from 16.7 billion euros to 17.0 billion euros, signaling the recovery of the national economy, despite the long-term hawkish course of the ECB. In addition, representatives of the European regulator, as well as its head Christine Lagarde, are expected to speak during the day. Officials may refine their plans for the monetary policy outlook given that inflation continues to show fairly consistent signs of decline.

Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0892, a break higher could trigger a rise towards 1.0977. On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0822, a break below could take the pair towards 1.0758.


Based on last week's lows, a new downward channel has formed. Now, the price is in the middle of the channel and may continue to decline after approaching the upper border of the channel.



This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

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Market Analysis: Gold Falls from Record High by $100 in 1 Day


The record high of about USD 2,130 an ounce was set just after the weekend in low-liquid Asian markets. By the nature of the movement, it looked more like a cascading triggering of sellers’ stop losses, rather than finding a stable balance between supply and demand, since after the candle with a long upper tail, the quote began to fall. During the European session it fell to 2,060, and during the American session it fell to 2,030. So in less than a day, the price of gold fell about USD 100, making Monday's close further from the record top than Friday's close - essentially similar to a change in market sentiment, in which a bearish engulfing pattern is formed.

From a fundamental point of view, the gold market is influenced by:

-> Jerome Powell's words that expectations of a rate cut may be “premature”;
-> positioning traders at the beginning of the working week. Important news on the US labor market is expected on Friday.



From a technical point of view, the gold price chart has a structure of trend lines that resemble a Gann fan. The price found support near one of them (shown in double thickness), thereby stopping Monday's fall. It is possible that if the bounces from this line are weak, the downward momentum may resume. In this case, the bears may try to break through the psychological level of USD 2,000 to test the next line from the mentioned structure.


This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

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Market Analysis: WTI Oil Price Drops to Lowest Level Since July


As the chart shows, the price of a barrel of US crude oil dropped below 72.10 per barrel yesterday for the first time since July 2023.

Fundamentally, this happened against the backdrop of:

• Statistics showing that US oil exports are increasing. Volume is approaching a record 6 million barrels per day, with flows to Europe and Asia showing steady growth.
• Previously announced measures to reduce oil production by OPEC+. However, either the price has already taken these statements into account in advance, or market participants are not confident that the reduction in OPEC+ supplies will be fully implemented - one way or another, so far the OPEC+ countries have not achieved the desired increase in oil prices. Perhaps, in order to discuss the oil market, Russian President Putin is flying to the UAE and Saudi Arabia today. And Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said OPEC+ is ready to deepen oil production cuts in the first quarter of 2024 to eliminate “speculation and volatility” if existing production reduction measures are not enough.

From a technical analysis point of view:

• the price of oil continues to develop its dynamics within the descending channel (shown in red);
• the rising channel (shown in blue) looks like an intermediate correction within a larger decline. The lower boundary of the parallel channel may provide support for the current decline;
• yesterday's update to the low was very small, it looks like a false breakout of the November low. The bears seem unsure, but they may make a new attempt if there is a successful test of the level of $73 per barrel, which worked as support in early December, but today may provide resistance. Also pay attention to the lower boundary of the downward channel, where sellers can take profits from short positions.

This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.