A cluster of stops all the way to 1.6218 on GBPUSD

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Paul
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an example of a Fibo extention appllied in a special way.

Postby Paul » Fri Jul 10, 2009 9:00 am

an example of a Fibo extention appllied in a special way.
This a USDCHF chart. The extention is drawn from a first signal to a second signal of turbulence. What you get is the target for bigger players and some clues on the way to a new low. Heavy selling near 161.8, selling near 261.8, profit taking below 423.6.

Glance at the new chart and the Fibo levels just where the prices have retreated to.
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mstandifer
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Encouragement and thanks

Postby mstandifer » Fri Jul 10, 2009 3:45 pm

I don't post...in fact this is my first post.

Like many of you I watch several forums, however, I am content to lurk since I am only an inexperienced student.

I've watched this thread from the beginning and have studied Paul's other thread. There is valuable information here and I'm not referring to the free pips or the indicators Paul has shown us (although the S-RoC works well).

The value here is that Paul has presented a unique way of watching how price reacts to levels.

You might say ho-hum to that but for me it was the 'ah ha!' moment I've been waiting for. I finally understand what I've been missing and that's worth breaking my silence.

So...

Paul,
Thank you for presenting this valuable information and for being willing to subject yourself to the ridicule of the general population.

I've watched other very good threads die because the thread owner thought no one was watching the thread. That is not the case here so don't let the lack of replies fool you.

Many people are watching this thread and I for one am learning from it. Please continue to post your observations and comments, Paul. They are appreciated.

Regards,
Marc

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monolisa
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Postby monolisa » Fri Jul 10, 2009 3:52 pm

Likewise here. Paul your thread is truly valuable in my learning journey.

Unfortunately I don't have a big nose, but I do have a heightened sense of smell :)

Lis
"Know your enemy and know yourself, find naught in fear for 100 battles. Know yourself but not your enemy, find level of loss and victory. Know neither your enemy or yourself, wallow in defeat every time." - Sun Tzu

Paul
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Thank you for support

Postby Paul » Fri Jul 10, 2009 7:50 pm

Thank you mstandifer and monolisa for support.

I try to ferret out the truth about the market. I am of the opinion that doing it in total solitude can deprive oneself of a chance, however small it might be, of reaching new horizons. The net is a unique way of exchanging views and knowledge and I find it more valuable than a lot of dear universities. It would be untrue if I said that posting sth does not give me anything in return.

Posts are written, and by writing we commit ourselves to what we want to express much stronger than could be done orally or when just think about it. This strength of commitment is very important in analyzing financial markets because we want to be understood well and we want the material to be void of mistakes.

Traders who truly engage themselves in business may be thinking about about a dozen ways the market will go. If they talk, they may mention a few ways the market will go but when it comes to writing it down by them they will concentrate on a most reduced number of possibilities. A reader gets the sharpest focus on a problem only in a written form.

As a result, viewers get a better stuff. Their response is also a very valuable stuff and even a seemingly vague remark may be an excellent prompt for further investigation of a problem.

The market is one such thing which requires constant learning. It is easy to put someone off his stroke. At times it seems however that something is a result of combined efforts, of many minds concentrated for a second on the same problem. I also believe that people know what and how well they can perform before they really can do those things. This thought should be carefully nurtured by everybody who wants to excel. It has nothing to do with the primitive positive thinking. It is different because it comes from within you, not from book instructions or anything else. In fact your persistence may not be understood.

Behind a trader of success stands a bewildered mother-in-law.
:wink:
Under a trader of success hides at least one woman. :)

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Postby rolska » Fri Jul 10, 2009 10:02 pm

Deep thougts.
I believe there is a universal law: giving=receiving, always opposites and the elusive third principle that makes it happen.

Did someone study Jim Slomans efforts to understand the markets?

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monolisa
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Postby monolisa » Sat Jul 11, 2009 12:03 am

Hi Paul,

You take what you give :)

Looks like you have a strong motivator behind your trading??? :P

Thanks.

Lis
"Know your enemy and know yourself, find naught in fear for 100 battles. Know yourself but not your enemy, find level of loss and victory. Know neither your enemy or yourself, wallow in defeat every time." - Sun Tzu

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Postby Patch » Sat Jul 11, 2009 2:52 am

Paul

I look forward to the time when I suprise the heck out of my wonderful wife and mother-in-law. Thank you again for this thoughtful post. jb
ENOUGH being a Yalie for me Back to the Sea. "What i can lose, i can win" "YES YOU CAN" - dragon33 -"Pick one method and one pair and stick with them until you master it. "The choice is yours - success or failure." TRO

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A study of density of orders on EURUSD

Postby Paul » Sun Jul 12, 2009 11:49 am

A study of density of orders on EURUSD.

The divergence theorem for financial markets: In the absence of the creation or destruction of money the density of orders within a region of space can change only by having them flow into or away from the region.

density high = a cluster of lines = lots of orders
density low = a few or few lines = not many orders
density very low = no lines = stops hiding there

The study is based on an H1 chart. Traders should accept very well the fact that by analyzing markets we analyze its topology. It is sad because it follows that markets are as difficult as topology is and that approximations lead to inevitable errors in one's system and that errors often accumulate in time.

A topologist is someone who cannot distinguish between a doughnut and a coffee cup. A topological knowledge of objects is independent of how they are "represented" or "embedded" in space. A classical TA depends very much on those "represented" or "embedded" objects in space.

To clarify in an easy way let us take an abstract painting. Viewers try to analyze it, scrutinize it and will look for what they know it is. For example they may insist on seeing a shape of a human figure or an apple or whatever "real" thing they know, whereas they should concentrate on what they really see. And what they are looking at and what they see is really an abstract painting.

This difference is the main reason why patterns and formations fail to work
more often than not. We may look for patterns and formations of clouds in the sky. Those associated with sth "real" are a product of mere fantasy.

I obtained different densities in different areas. If I got an even distribution of lines, the study would make no sense at all. Now it is possible to study the picture from the perspective of orders and stoplosses.
Kindly notice that near the two recent tops marked by blue rectangles the density was very low. Most probably the last leg of surge was a mere stop hunt and that a cluster of sell orders is right below, so shorts are still strong. It is interesting to study why in certain price regions (even within a well defined range) big players were reluctant to place new orders.
The data compiled is for the period of time June 15-July10. Now it is time to
give it a very careful look and take necessary notes. The aim is to increase
your winning rate as much as possible.
Attachments
eurusd.gif
I obtained different densities in different areas. If I got an even distribution of lines, the study would make no sense at all. Now it is possible to study the picture from the perspective of orders and stoplosses.
Kindly notice that near the two recent
eurusd.gif (51.52 KiB) Viewed 324 times
Last edited by Paul on Sun Jul 12, 2009 12:22 pm, edited 3 times in total.

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monolisa
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Postby monolisa » Sun Jul 12, 2009 12:14 pm

You analysis is spot on. Thanks.

Just wonder how you create the density lines, are they the high/lows of the bars?

Thanks.

Lis
"Know your enemy and know yourself, find naught in fear for 100 battles. Know yourself but not your enemy, find level of loss and victory. Know neither your enemy or yourself, wallow in defeat every time." - Sun Tzu

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Postby monolisa » Sun Jul 12, 2009 1:24 pm

Hi Paul,

I found this indicator, and think might be useful.

Red - high price density
Green - low price density.

May be TRO can modified it? The indi is from Ronald Raygun.

Lis

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"Know your enemy and know yourself, find naught in fear for 100 battles. Know yourself but not your enemy, find level of loss and victory. Know neither your enemy or yourself, wallow in defeat every time." - Sun Tzu

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