## \$1,000,000 QUESTION

forex live trades, setups, charts

Moderator: moderators

4x=0
rank: 150+ posts
Posts: 410
Joined: Tue Oct 17, 2006 10:53 pm
Reputation: 0
Gender:
casinoman wrote:Ah, you're right - forgot about the all-in. It is risk 100% to gain 4%.

Not exactly. It's "all-in", means you put on the largest position possible (BP). I will check; I believe BP affords you the 1% per tick that is needed. You would not let the position run against you 100%, or even 9% or 10% necessarily (I was wrong about stop size in my earlier post). You would put on a position equal to 100% of your buying power, to go "all-in". Optimal risk% yet to be determined..

Your calculation of 1.76% is also correct relative to a 4% win of 72 times or a 4% loss of 28 times.

My posting of 4% was based on risking 9 pips to net 4 pips with 72% wins and 28% loses.
(.72 * 4) - (.28 * 9) = 2.88 - 2.52 = .36 pip expectation
.36 pip expectation / 9 pips risked = 4% epectatation/yield

Since BP affords 1% per tick, we can use percentages when calculating expectations, instead of pips. This keeps everything on the same page.

Either way. It doesn't matter.

..I am confused that you say my calculation of 4% gain 72 times and 4% loss 28 times yields the 1.76% expectation, yet in your calculation you upped the loss% to 9% and came out with the higher 4% expectation.

If the expectation must be 4% and your maximum gain on any one trial is 4%, you need to win 100%. It doesn't matter what size your stop is. If x = stop size.

4x=0

Thank you for your support.

rank: <50 posts
Posts: 3
Joined: Mon Oct 08, 2007 1:31 am
Reputation: 0
Location: Panama
Gender:

### TRO Plot

Hi TRO

I was trying to work out, unsuccessfully mind you how to convert this indicator to the YM.
I am sorry I am not very good at this due to inexperience.

If it is possible what would you do to achive this ?

Thanks for looking at this post.

All the Best
John

TheRumpledOne
rank: 10000+ posts
Posts: 12512
Joined: Sun May 14, 2006 9:31 pm
Reputation: 509
Location: Oregon
Real name: Avery T. Horton, Jr.
Gender:
Contact:
You don't need to convert this indicator.

You need to run the statistics for the YM to find out what the 60 minute range is.
IT'S NOT WHAT YOU TRADE, IT'S HOW YOU TRADE IT!

Please do NOT PM me with trading or coding questions, post them in a thread.

rank: <50 posts
Posts: 3
Joined: Mon Oct 08, 2007 1:31 am
Reputation: 0
Location: Panama
Gender:
Thanks TRO. I will do this.
Thanks again for your time.

All the Best
John

newschool
rank: 150+ posts
Posts: 489
Joined: Fri Aug 21, 2009 2:26 am
Reputation: 0
Gender:
TheRumpledOne wrote:USDJPY and GBPUSD are the most volatile pairs and widely traded.

GJ and EJ are higher in my list.

Thank you for your support.

jarnapal
rank: 150+ posts
Posts: 236
Joined: Thu Mar 04, 2010 6:16 am
Reputation: 0
Gender:
newschool wrote:
TheRumpledOne wrote:USDJPY and GBPUSD are the most volatile pairs and widely traded.

GJ and EJ are higher in my list.

3 years gives plenty of time for the change!