MILKING THE COWS

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Probability
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Re: MILKING THE COWS

Postby Probability » Mon May 22, 2017 12:01 pm

TheRumpledOne wrote:
Probability wrote:Hi The Rumpled One,

I am a big fan. Really enjoy your videos and they make a whole lot more sense than all the garbage i have been fed along my trading journey.

I watched your vid on youtube about milking the cows; Simple yet so smart. I have a question as well as an idea i was hoping to ask if i may.

The last 100 days used to select stocks. This is basing the selection of stocks to trade the next day based on what and how the stock/s has/have been behaving in the last 100 days correct ?


No, not exactly.
It is used to find the best pairs to trade using the method.
And you only need ONE cow to milk everyday.
When that cow starts to "dry up", you move on to the next cow.
I traded TASR for over a year.
Same with GOOG and AAPL.
You can trade them over and over and they don't wear out...LOL!!


Hi TRO,

A little about me, I have been trading for over 4 years. 3 of those years I have been working with Laurens Bensdsorp (Alpha Equity Investment and good friend of Tom Basso and Curtis M. Faith). He has been my mentor and teacher and taught me how to develop a variety of uncorrelated automated algo systems using Trade Blox ( same software the turtles used in "The way of the turtle").

We have been working together with a coder in California to develop and produce system suite (allows for different system developments).
I backtest, create and develop a variety of algo systems using this software.

System Types Developed to date:
Long & Short Day Systems
Long & Short Mean Reversion Systems
Long & Short Long Term Systems
Volatility Systems
Gap Systems
ETF Hedge Systems
Rotational Systems
Combo Suites Systems (i.e Long Day + Short Day + ETF Hedge combined )
I have a 6 system combo producing 30% CAGR with a Max DD of 13% tested on the EOD of over 80,000 shares from 1995 to Dec 1st 2016.

Data used is EOD data.
Instruments: Stocks/ETFs.(can add Futures and forex)
Markets: AMEX, NYSE, NASDAQ.

I have over 16 different types of systems all offering a variety of financial returns and risk options.

What i have learnt, Backtested trading is like driving a car forward whilst looking through the review mirror.

I have also been following a forum on elite trader for over 7 years called,,, "why the obvious is not so obvious" On to which changed the way i viewed trading. Every way and thought of how to be a successful trader ( making more than you put in) has encapsulated me into finding and looking at the markets in a way of simplicity.

Before i came across you and your material i read a book called uncertainty and expectation by Gerald Ashley. Which added to my belief that trading the markets really is so simple yet the human mind complicates it. I have attached some points and explanations he mentions in the book that the real only factors in trading are really : Price, Time and Volatility.

If these images don't upload, please let me know and i will PM you.

[img]file:///Users/ryandon/Desktop/Screen%20Shot%202017-05-22%20at%208.16.27%20PM.png[/img] [img]file:///Users/ryandon/Desktop/Screen%20Shot%202017-05-22%20at%208.16.51%20PM.png[/img]

So what i am bringing to the table if i may. I have been studying the correlation between implied volatility. Not historical, but whats to come. The relationship between the implied volatility of vix to the SP 500 shares and VXD to the dj30 and others.

My idea is, can you cross correlate the movement of the share (H-O 10, H-O50, H-60,70,80,90,100) with what the Implied volatility was OR is for a time period. My idea is it may or may not add to the result of what should and shouldn't be traded that day.

Please add www.kreslik.com to your ad blocker white list.
Thank you for your support.

Probability
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Re: MILKING THE COWS

Postby Probability » Mon May 22, 2017 12:02 pm

TheRumpledOne wrote:
Probability wrote:Hi The Rumpled One,

I am a big fan. Really enjoy your videos and they make a whole lot more sense than all the garbage i have been fed along my trading journey.

I watched your vid on youtube about milking the cows; Simple yet so smart. I have a question as well as an idea i was hoping to ask if i may.

The last 100 days used to select stocks. This is basing the selection of stocks to trade the next day based on what and how the stock/s has/have been behaving in the last 100 days correct ?


No, not exactly.
It is used to find the best pairs to trade using the method.
And you only need ONE cow to milk everyday.
When that cow starts to "dry up", you move on to the next cow.
I traded TASR for over a year.
Same with GOOG and AAPL.
You can trade them over and over and they don't wear out...LOL!!


Hi TRO,

A little about me, I have been trading for over 4 years. 3 of those years I have been working with Laurens Bensdsorp (Alpha Equity Investment and good friend of Tom Basso and Curtis M. Faith). He has been my mentor and teacher and taught me how to develop a variety of uncorrelated automated algo systems using Trade Blox ( same software the turtles used in "The way of the turtle").

We have been working together with a coder in California to develop and produce system suite (allows for different system developments).
I backtest, create and develop a variety of algo systems using this software.

System Types Developed to date:
Long & Short Day Systems
Long & Short Mean Reversion Systems
Long & Short Long Term Systems
Volatility Systems
Gap Systems
ETF Hedge Systems
Rotational Systems
Combo Suites Systems (i.e Long Day + Short Day + ETF Hedge combined )
I have a 6 system combo producing 30% CAGR with a Max DD of 13% tested on the EOD of over 80,000 shares from 1995 to Dec 1st 2016.

Data used is EOD data.
Instruments: Stocks/ETFs.(can add Futures and forex)
Markets: AMEX, NYSE, NASDAQ.

I have over 16 different types of systems all offering a variety of financial returns and risk options.

What i have learnt, Backtested trading is like driving a car forward whilst looking through the review mirror.

I have also been following a forum on elite trader for over 7 years called,,, "why the obvious is not so obvious" On to which changed the way i viewed trading. Every way and thought of how to be a successful trader ( making more than you put in) has encapsulated me into finding and looking at the markets in a way of simplicity.

Before i came across you and your material i read a book called uncertainty and expectation by Gerald Ashley. Which added to my belief that trading the markets really is so simple yet the human mind complicates it. I have attached some points and explanations he mentions in the book that the real only factors in trading are really : Price, Time and Volatility.

If these images don't upload, please let me know and i will PM you.

[img]file:///Users/ryandon/Desktop/Screen%20Shot%202017-05-22%20at%208.16.27%20PM.png[/img] [img]file:///Users/ryandon/Desktop/Screen%20Shot%202017-05-22%20at%208.16.51%20PM.png[/img]

So what i am bringing to the table if i may. I have been studying the correlation between implied volatility. Not historical, but whats to come. The relationship between the implied volatility of vix to the SP 500 shares and VXD to the dj30 and others.

My idea is, can you cross correlate the movement of the share (H-O 10, H-O50, H-60,70,80,90,100) with what the Implied volatility was OR is for a time period. My idea is it may or may not add to the result of what should and shouldn't be traded that day.

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TheRumpledOne
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Re: MILKING THE COWS

Postby TheRumpledOne » Mon May 22, 2017 1:20 pm

Please attach your files.
IT'S NOT WHAT YOU TRADE, IT'S HOW YOU TRADE IT!

Please do NOT PM me with trading or coding questions, post them in a thread.

Probability
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Re: MILKING THE COWS

Postby Probability » Mon May 22, 2017 2:05 pm

No problem, I would be able to attach better quality to a pm. However will work with the 256 MB limit upload per file.
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TheRumpledOne
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Re: MILKING THE COWS

Postby TheRumpledOne » Thu May 25, 2017 3:00 am

Thanks
IT'S NOT WHAT YOU TRADE, IT'S HOW YOU TRADE IT!



Please do NOT PM me with trading or coding questions, post them in a thread.

Please add www.kreslik.com to your ad blocker white list.
Thank you for your support.

Probability
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Re: MILKING THE COWS

Postby Probability » Thu May 25, 2017 2:18 pm

TheRumpledOne wrote:Thanks


Hi Tro,

Ok so i have just been watching and using one of your MTC filter on stock fetcher the past few days.

/* MTC SELECTOR */

set{HiOp, high - open}
set{HiOpCnt, count( HiOp above .10, 100) }
set{HiOp50, count( HiOp above .50, 100) }

set{OpLo, open - low}
set{OpLoCnt, count( OpLo above .10, 100) }
set{OpLo50, count( OpLo above .50, 100) }

And have just been watching the top 3 stocks for today. Today was JDST, TSLA and GOOG. I had the charts open set at 1 min, waiting for the morning bell and BAM. Wow Googl is just ballistic it hit Buy zone and sell zone about 6 times in the first minute. TSLA was similar and JDST just wen straight down the first minute then popped right back up the next minute.

I understand why you should just pick 1.

Is 0.10 cents still statistically the best place to look for the buy zone ? I only ask because its super fast and i will need some gun slinging training to get on and off that pony.

OR

Should i look to wait for the first Minute or 2 to play out before taking the trade if it enters the Buy OR sell zone ? I do notice allot of the time stocks fake out the first direction


I am using a pretty crummy platform and the data is not the greatest. Am used to EOD but am currently looking for an upgrade maybe that will help with the taming of the pony.

Cheers
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TheRumpledOne
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Re: MILKING THE COWS

Postby TheRumpledOne » Thu May 25, 2017 2:28 pm

Milk one cow.
Better to trade stocks with lower spread.
You have to be quick.
FADE THE GAP.
Use pending orders if you are not quick enough.
IT'S NOT WHAT YOU TRADE, IT'S HOW YOU TRADE IT!



Please do NOT PM me with trading or coding questions, post them in a thread.

Probability
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Re: MILKING THE COWS

Postby Probability » Fri May 26, 2017 2:33 pm

TheRumpledOne wrote:Milk one cow.
Better to trade stocks with lower spread.
You have to be quick.
FADE THE GAP.
Use pending orders if you are not quick enough.


Thanks for the pointers Tro.

I have noticed that certain stocks must just be stayed away from. Appl seems allot more placid, Also 10cents seems to be a workable distance on this stock; more than some others (other stocks- 10 cents is very, very close to the bucking cow)

With the stock filter if we are getting statistics in the 80 to 90 range for hiop10 to hiop50 aswell as 80 to 90 range for oplo10 to oplo50. Should we favour the fade the gap direction ? Or just go for it and jump in when any zone Buy or sell is Hit. These reading just seem like high volatility and the stock just goes either way.

Could looking at stocks in the filters with just a high 80 to 90 range in the hiop10 to hiop50 and low 5 to 10 range in oplo10 to oplo50 help with adding to the probability of a High Buy Zone trade the Next Day ? (maybe less whipsaws)


With the data that Stockfetchers uses, Is it basing the hiop10 to hiop50 and oplo10 to oplo50 using day data Or minute ? tick ?

It would be interesting to get stats on when in the time (minute/Seconds) price hits and surpasses the hiop10 to hiop50 and oplo10 to oplo50 zones. May add to some interesting findings as to when a better "time" in the opening to take a trade in the Buy Or Sell Zone. May help with lowering whipsaws and stops being hit, then again maybe not.

Ps. I can send that book to you if you would like, its a pdf copy, Let me know. Cheers, have a great weekend.

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TheRumpledOne
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Re: MILKING THE COWS

Postby TheRumpledOne » Fri May 26, 2017 3:29 pm

First trade should always be a fade.

Usually, you fade until the gap fills.

SF uses daily data.

When you only trade ONE STOCK, you will get a feel for best time to trade.

Sure send it... Thanks.
IT'S NOT WHAT YOU TRADE, IT'S HOW YOU TRADE IT!



Please do NOT PM me with trading or coding questions, post them in a thread.

Probability
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Re: MILKING THE COWS

Postby Probability » Tue May 30, 2017 10:21 am

TheRumpledOne wrote:First trade should always be a fade.

Usually, you fade until the gap fills.

SF uses daily data.

When you only trade ONE STOCK, you will get a feel for best time to trade.

Sure send it... Thanks.


Thanks Tro, Will send it through to your email.

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