Aliassmith "Switch to Equities"

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aliassmith
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Re: Aliassmith "Switch to Equities"

Postby aliassmith » Tue Apr 19, 2016 11:22 pm

MightyOne wrote:
freestockcharts_com_FB.png


FB had over a 300 tick daily range :shock:
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aliassmith
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Re: Aliassmith "Switch to Equities"

Postby aliassmith » Thu Apr 21, 2016 8:04 pm

FB had 172 tick daily range.
Some good spots to get some ticks.
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Re: Aliassmith "Switch to Equities"

Postby aliassmith » Fri Apr 22, 2016 2:44 pm

FB range 230 ticks in first hour.
Nice day :mrgreen:
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MightyOne
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Re: Aliassmith "Switch to Equities"

Postby MightyOne » Sun Apr 24, 2016 1:52 pm

aliassmith wrote:FB range 230 ticks in first hour.
Nice day :mrgreen:


I cross off the largest range and the two smallest ranges and then use the median range divided by 16.

If I were to go higher than SIXTEENS then I would use a number closer to the result.

You might do something similar for stocks...

position_sizing.png
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aliassmith
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Re: Aliassmith "Switch to Equities"

Postby aliassmith » Sun Apr 24, 2016 3:02 pm

MightyOne wrote:
aliassmith wrote:FB range 230 ticks in first hour.
Nice day :mrgreen:


I cross off the largest range and the two smallest ranges and then use the median range divided by 16.

If I were to go higher than SIXTEENS then I would use a number closer to the result.

You might do something similar for stocks...

position_sizing.png

Where did you get these data points?
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aliassmith
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Re: Aliassmith "Switch to Equities"

Postby aliassmith » Sun Apr 24, 2016 3:57 pm

I was doing some risk evaluation to feel out my size vs. Risk.

So limiting my risk to $1000 on a single trade. I came up with the following.

Size.....stop size
500........200 ticks
1000......100 ticks
1500......67 ticks
2000......50 ticks
2500......40 ticks

Using sixteens and 3 lines for my risk level that puts me at about 2000 shares.
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Re: Aliassmith "Switch to Equities"

Postby MightyOne » Sun Apr 24, 2016 7:55 pm

aliassmith wrote:Where did you get these data points?


I use the last six weekly candles.

I expect that the current w1-range will fall within .625 to 1.375 the median range (10 to 22 lines of potential profit).

Daily ranges can end up anywhere from 20 to 62.5% of the weekly range & that is enough for 3+ lines per pair;
four charts, 12 lines.

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Re: Aliassmith "Switch to Equities"

Postby aliassmith » Sun Apr 24, 2016 8:14 pm

MightyOne wrote:
aliassmith wrote:Where did you get these data points?


I use the last six weekly candles.

I expect that the current w1-range will fall within .625 to 1.375 the median range (10 to 22 lines of potential profit).

Daily ranges can end up anywhere from 20 to 62.5% of the weekly range & that is enough for 3+ lines per pair;
four charts, 12 lines.


So 10 to 22 lines of potential and you try to scalp out 3 lines from four charts. Daily risk is 4% on a total fubar day. Daily candles are the only place I would risk 4%.
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Re: Aliassmith "Switch to Equities"

Postby MightyOne » Sun Apr 24, 2016 8:45 pm

aliassmith wrote:
So 10 to 22 lines of potential and you try to scalp out 3 lines from four charts. Daily risk is 4% on a total fubar day. Daily candles are the only place I would risk 4%.


One of your trades is going to be in profit by a few lines so I think that we can reduce the estimated risk by at least 1.66%

I widen the spacing to trade continuation moves and I narrow the spacing when I have OPM.

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Re: Aliassmith "Switch to Equities"

Postby aliassmith » Tue Apr 26, 2016 6:23 pm

aliassmith wrote:I was doing some risk evaluation to feel out my size vs. Risk.

So limiting my risk to $1000 on a single trade. I came up with the following.

Size.....stop size
500........200 ticks
1000......100 ticks
1500......67 ticks
2000......50 ticks
2500......40 ticks

Using sixteens and 3 lines for my risk level that puts me at about 2000 shares.


My MM is evolving. I think that I have found the proper size range for FB at least. I'll probably start keeping track of my tick$ based on the 2000 shares instead of the 5000 theoretical max.

I decided to scalp small charts form 9:30am to no later than noon.
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