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nicoacademia
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Postby nicoacademia » Sun Apr 01, 2012 4:22 pm

thanks Withnail!
i've yet to get down to sam seiden's teachings yet but looks like i've more to study to grasp the movement of the markets.

btw can i ask. so in relation to the demand and then supply levels established previously.
how does this relate to where current price is and what it might do next?
is there any confirmed expectation already? i.e touch 2nd supply and reverse down.
or 2nd supply will get broken through and gbpusd continues rising higher.

after all price drop-base-rally from below and got to where it is now...does that mean anything for where price is currently?


with regards to spot forex data:
i'm using forex.com/gain capital. i opened a USD$200 ninjatrader specific account just so i can get the free data feed. i never need to worry about paying $40-50 per month for data haha.

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bredin
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Postby bredin » Sun Apr 01, 2012 7:57 pm

where will price go?

trend is price traveling from supply to demand or vice versa.

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nicoacademia
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Postby nicoacademia » Mon Apr 02, 2012 12:38 pm

thanks bredin!
i guess demand did pop up for the GU and pushed it up to 1.6060 after all.
it's come back some 40 pips now.
edit:it actually hit my limit sell order at 1.6061 which i forgot i had placed after marking up the chart during the weekend. it's about 60+pips nice now.

and speaking of sam seiden. this just popped into my mailbox.
:) looks like i need not reference the internet.



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Postby withnail » Mon Apr 02, 2012 9:18 pm

nicoacademia wrote:thanks Withnail!
i've yet to get down to sam seiden's teachings yet but looks like i've more to study to grasp the movement of the markets.

btw can i ask. so in relation to the demand and then supply levels established previously.
how does this relate to where current price is and what it might do next?
is there any confirmed expectation already? i.e touch 2nd supply and reverse down.
or 2nd supply will get broken through and gbpusd continues rising higher.

after all price drop-base-rally from below and got to where it is now...does that mean anything for where price is currently?


with regards to spot forex data:
i'm using forex.com/gain capital. i opened a USD$200 ninjatrader specific account just so i can get the free data feed. i never need to worry about paying $40-50 per month for data haha.


Thanks for the info on ninja Nico. I found a broker with a free trial today so will play around with it. Forex.com is nice option just for the data. Would it have been easier/more profitable to trade off demand or supply on a section of chart? That's what I ask myself.
Cheers Withanail.
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nicoacademia
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Postby nicoacademia » Tue Apr 03, 2012 3:37 am

that's good. i like free trials!

i think maybe the answer is whether the chart sets itself up. it's something i have failed to grasp for supply n demand trading but a recent article i read by sam seiden made me realise that not all supply n demand are equal. if there's more space between supply and demand wouldn't that make for larger profit potential?

i'll just paste the entire thing just in case it comes off or something.
http://lessons.tradingacademy.com/artic ... -together/
more can be found here:
http://lessons.tradingacademy.com/archive/

Putting the Puzzle Together
By Sam Seiden, Online Trading Academy, VP Education

I know what you?re thinking? You just saw the Lesson from the Pros email with this week?s articles and as you opened it you thought, ?Not another article on supply and demand?? Before you get too worried, let me assure you we will take the information to the next level in this piece and add some key concepts to your trading tool kit.

I want to go over a trade we identified in our live All Asset Mastery XLT (all asset class trading room) and walk you through all the deciding factors that led to a quality trading opportunity.



First, notice the middle chart on the bottom row with the smaller of the two arrows pointed to it.

This is a very large time frame chart of the S&P. On this chart, you will see that price has rallied to an area of supply that the arrow is pointed at.

When price is at or near larger time frame supply, we only want to think about shorting when we are intra-day trading or longer term trading.

Next, our focus was on the black chart in the upper right corner. During the early part of our live trading session, price was basing sideways and then there was a quick decline.

I pointed that out to the XLT members and suggested there was a shorting opportunity when price rallied back up to the supply level because this represented institution/bank supply.

Sure enough, this happened about five minutes later as you can see on the chart. When price was into the level, it was time to short, but that?s not all.

We would never just sell short because price was into a supply level. We need to make sure there is no significant demand anywhere close to current price.

In other words, there has to be room for price to decline. The circled area on the chart represents that picture. There is nothing in that circled area that represents demand, there is just clean space for price to fall through.

Lastly, we looked at the chart of the US Dollar in the upper left corner. Notice that while there was supply above current price, there was still room for price to rally before it reached supply. That US Dollar information was a hint that S&P prices were likely to decline.

Quantifying institution supply and demand is the key to getting this right and accurately predicting price movement in any and all markets, and that?s all we are doing here.




Setting up this trading opportunity in advance is also very important, because it takes all the emotion out of the decision making process and it also means we don?t have to sit in front of the computer screen all day which no one wants to do.



During the trading session, price declined from that institution supply level and reached our profit target (blue line). As you can see, one of our students made just over $1,500 on the trade. I chose the blue line area as a profit target because it was just above some demand in this market. Identifying fresh institution demand and supply, properly correlating markets, and then executing our rule based strategy is the key to making this work.

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nicoacademia
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s&p500

Postby nicoacademia » Tue Apr 03, 2012 3:47 am

anyone think s&p 500 ripe for a pull back down to the 1370 area?
ive been watching it bounce up 2 times already. and it seemed to have used up the demand at those levels.
plus last night tiny candle ending. cheery on the top?


nicoacademia
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Postby nicoacademia » Tue Apr 03, 2012 10:26 am

this helped me put in place supply and demand trading.
extracted from:
http://lessons.tradingacademy.com/artic ... ial-goals/

Hello Sam and thank you for the great articles and education you have provided. It has been a great help. I have a continuous problem with trading. I understand the supply and demand principles you teach and where market imbalances occur, and I am usually spot on with a good entry, but my problem isn?t the entry. It is the exit. You see, I have a problem understanding where to take profits. I typically watch a 5 min, 15 min and daily chart and only place day-trades. I am really good at picking an entry and have caught the high of the day and low of the day plenty of times, but I take profits too early. I just look for the nearest supply or demand level once I?m in the trade and take profits there, but sure enough, its a trend reversal and I sit there watching frustrated, wishing I didn?t take profits. That?s not the end of it.

When I decide I?m going to let this one ride, it goes in my direction only to come back and stop me out, and I?m left wishing I didn?t go for a big winner and only took profits sooner. So what do I do? What time frame do I watch to take profits on?

Adam H.

(reply by Sam Seiden)
Excellent question that I can help you with. The answer to your problem is to focus on the larger time frame supply and demand curve more. Great job on finding the correct supply and demand levels. You have mastered market timing and most professionals can?t even do it, so nice job. When you find a smaller time frame level to enter at which you are already good at, go to a larger time frame and see where your smaller time frame level is in relation to larger time frame supply and demand. If you find a smaller time frame supply level and it?s close to larger time frame supply, go for a larger profit because price is high on the supply and demand curve. In these cases, your large profit margins are on the down side, and vice versa for longs from demand levels. Again, great job on finding the right levels; it sounds like you are almost there.

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Postby withnail » Tue Apr 17, 2012 8:56 pm

Image
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nicoacademia
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Postby nicoacademia » Tue Apr 17, 2012 11:20 pm

Nice one withnail.
I was on the monday rally that ended at 1.0369 area but wasn't paying attention when the audusd cracked weekly low.
This trade can be seen on the daily-4h-2h-1h charts too. in fact on the weekly it is a continuation of last week's low spike down spike up.

hence this week was always going to be bullish just where to enter.
this was what i did up monday morning. but i guess after it failed i wasn't confident enough to re-enter(hence didn't pay attention to it)

feel free to correct my analysis. i feel that i probably get it only 30% right atm. and its quite frustrating.(was shorting eurusd on its way up thinking it will turn before 3150+area)
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120416-audusd-beginofweekanalysis(s).jpg
begin of week setup
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Humble
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Postby Humble » Wed Apr 18, 2012 2:18 am

Hey Withnail, how do you get your indi to:

Have double line spaces between the D,W & M lines
Update the values without opening and closing the indi

Thx
Is price closing higher or lower than something? Simple yet powerful question. ..MO

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