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TygerKrane
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Drilling down into Demand Levels

Postby TygerKrane » Sun Nov 20, 2011 4:06 am

2 (or 3) ?ions for you m8,

withnail wrote:Image


withnail wrote:Image


First, you drill into the H4 chart looking for a more precise Demand Level using the M30 chart, but then in your next post, you examine this same area (the white lines) using an H1 chart; Why? As in, why the switchup between the M30 & H1 timeframes to view that area, and, was there any particular reason why you initially drilled down into the H4 using an M30 -- as opposed to using an H1?

[highlight=pink]<<<<<<**>>>>>>**<<<<<<**>>>>>>[/highlight]

Second,

withnail wrote:Image


You have a D1 demand level nicely drawn in, could you draw in the next lower demand levels as you see them? I KNOW there is one lower demand level than what you drew, but if there is more than one, could you draw those in as well?


Thanks for your time, :smt024

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Postby withnail » Sun Nov 20, 2011 4:56 pm

A review of Fridays AUDUSD trade. I was looking to take a higher time frame demand level getting in with small risk and taking the potential big reward a higher time frame demand level gives. See 2 posts ago for more detail. Looking at the daily chart the level I took is within Demand 3 - I would expect Demand 1&2 to give bigger rewards as they are further out on the S/D curve, but who knows what can happen.

Image

Entry off 5min chart - 3 lots of 0.10. Stop behind last swing low.
Image

Targets are supply levels idea was to see how far this could go. So target 3 was not take profit but if it had reached this I would have manually trailed the stop up.

Image

As it was targets 1&2 were met. Price was on the way back down to entry price and there was not enough pip cushion to hold it over weekend. So closed out for small profit. Will consider re-entering on Monday. But in all was happy a nice few pips for minimal risk.
Last edited by withnail on Wed Nov 23, 2011 7:21 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Drilling down into Demand Levels

Postby withnail » Sun Nov 20, 2011 5:07 pm

TygerKrane wrote:2 (or 3) ?ions for you m8,

withnail wrote:Image


withnail wrote:Image


First, you drill into the H4 chart looking for a more precise Demand Level using the M30 chart, but then in your next post, you examine this same area (the white lines) using an H1 chart; Why? As in, why the switchup between the M30 & H1 timeframes to view that area, and, was there any particular reason why you initially drilled down into the H4 using an M30 -- as opposed to using an H1?

[highlight=pink]<<<<<<**>>>>>>**<<<<<<**>>>>>>[/highlight]

Second,

withnail wrote:Image


You have a D1 demand level nicely drawn in, could you draw in the next lower demand levels as you see them? I KNOW there is one lower demand level than what you drew, but if there is more than one, could you draw those in as well?


Thanks for your time, :smt024


Hi Krane, Thanks for stopping by. Questions are always good makes me think.

Q1 - About the 30m /1h chart. The second post was just to show how far price moved off that level not really analysis more for reference - was a bit short of time then but have just added more info. When I do my analysis I move down the time frames until I can SEE something clearly enough that I am happy to trade off. In this case the level was just clearer in the 30m, in the 1H I could see something but in 30 it was very clear (3 bars in a row virtually equal tops and bottoms with big momo out). On SP500 I find I go as low as 2m, Dax 1m all depends no fixed time frames just what works.

Q2 - The day chart, I find it the most tricky marking S&D on day charts. I am looking for wicks and pauses (Spinning tops, hammers etc). I find the easiest way is to look for a strong move and follow it down or up to the source and there look for the pause. The blue boxes are what I marked using the Day chart on it's own and the white lines are refinements I made using lower time frames.

Image

Fine tuning demand zone 1 for example 30m chart -

Image

I think the IISupDem Indi set on 4h gives a pretty good picture of the higher time frames 4h/1d for currencies. See how it compares to my hand drawn zones.

Image

Cheers Withnail.

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Postby withnail » Wed Nov 23, 2011 3:27 pm

AUDUSD going down higher time frame demand level broken. Waited to get in for low risk. Some profit is already in the bag letting it roll out. Note to self don't trade the DAX ever again! Even with the smallest lot size it is ridiculous and makes me scared - my trading decisions are bad as a result and I tried to get revenge/money back 3 times and failed. Forex only until I have 100000 account - then I will make the DAX pay :D. Bollinger bands I used to focus me a little. Supply and Demand is all over the chart and I find it's to easy to get carried away so BB is a bit of a filter for time being. I want to make myself follow some rules and not worry about missing an opportunity.

Image
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Postby withnail » Fri Nov 25, 2011 4:57 pm

Levels for AUDUSD Sam drew in todays seminar at Fxstreet.

Image

Also other point to note he said he is taking trades off the 1,2,5 min charts between the hours 7-9 central us time (GMT-6) before the us stock markets open.
Last edited by withnail on Sat Nov 26, 2011 10:53 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Postby TheRumpledOne » Fri Nov 25, 2011 9:14 pm

Thanks for posting Withnail.
IT'S NOT WHAT YOU TRADE, IT'S HOW YOU TRADE IT!

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Postby TygerKrane » Sat Nov 26, 2011 5:59 pm

I wanted to thank you for this, too.
TheRumpledOne beat me to it...

Lets see if we can get some kind of reversal from there if it reaches?

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Postby withnail » Sun Nov 27, 2011 12:46 pm

Thinking of Kranes question about getting a reversal out of the demand level. I was thinking what would be better buying at the demand or selling at the supply if it goes back up there. Looking more at the longer term as either will give a few pips. As it is a Sunday and it's raining I thought it would be fun to try to make a prediction here. This reminded me of the first book I read Stan Weinstein Secrets of profiting in bulls and bears markets. He is analysing mostly using a weekly chart and a 30 MA breaking the market down into 4 phases. Now I look at it again he basically describes supply and demand in the big picture. Basing(Demand), The Top (Supply) and the 2 phases between up and down. Looking at the weekly chart of AUDUSD it is in what Stan describes as phase 3.
"THE TOP AREA - Eventually, all good things come to an end. In the stock market,this takes the form of a Stage 3 top as the upward advance loses momentum and starts to trend sideways. What's going on beneath the surface is that buyers and sellers are once again about equal in strength. In Stage 2, the buyers were far stronger and overwhelmed the sellers. Now that the advance is ending, the stock is in equilibrium and the mirror image of a Stage 1 base starts to take shape. Volume is usually heavy in Stage 3 and the moves are sharp and choppy. If you've ever heard the expression that a stock is"churning" (moving sideways on heavy volume), this stage is anoutstanding example of it. The heavy volume on the part of buyers,who are excited by the improving fundamentals or "story," is met in equal measure by aggressive selling by the people who bought at considerably lower prices and are heading for the exits. Here is how all of this takes shape on the chart. First the 30-week MA loses its upward slope and starts to flatten out. Whereas Stage 2 price declines always held at or above the MA, the stock will now tiptoe below and above the MA on declines and rallies. Once a Stage 3 top starts to form, traders should get the heck out with their profits! Investors, however, have more leeway. Once this stage is reached, I suggest that investors take profits on only half of their position. There is always the chance that the stock willbreak out on the upside again, beginning yet another Stage 2 upleg.If you still hold half of your original position, you'll then be able to benefit from the upward movement of this new Stage 2. But it's imperative that you protect your profits on the remaining half position with a protective sell stop set right beneath the bottom of the new support level." ~ Stan Weinstein.

Now I scan though this book again for the first time in years I realise it is all about supply and demand. He describes refining the buying process and talks about "the less resistance the better" nearby supply in other words.

Support level seems to be 2009 high 0.9400. Interesting to see if holds or breaks and we go into a Stan phase 4 decline.

Image

Nice video with Stan about the 87 crash-
http://www.dailymarkets.com/stock/2011/ ... ket-crash/
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Postby noushina » Mon Nov 28, 2011 12:24 pm

Thanks withnail. You're a breath of fresh air. Gotta dig out my Weinstein now. Never did read it.

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Postby withnail » Mon Nov 28, 2011 3:24 pm

noushina wrote:Thanks withnail. You're a breath of fresh air. Gotta dig out my Weinstein now. Never did read it.


Hi Noushina, Thanks for stopping by. I really liked the book the first time around and reading it again after learning from Sam Seiden for a while it really makes sense. I am interested in building up positions starting from the low time frame S&D and working them up to the 4h and daily charts. Gaining space and adding positions. That is the direction I want to go with my trading. AUDUSD end 2008 - begin 2009 was text book Stan phase 1 basing. Would have been nice to get a few long positions in on the breakout of that and add to it at demand levels on the way up. If only we had a time machine. Please feel free to add any thoughts or points of interest that you have always good to get others take on things.
Cheers Withnail.
Last edited by withnail on Mon Nov 28, 2011 6:33 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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