PebbleTrader wrote:I do not do any algos or anything predictive. Trading will always be about guessing for me. I'm not saying that it can't be done.
It depends on your research and what you discover about the patterns in the data. If you haven't done the research, and you haven't discovered the patterns, then it will always seem like an impossible task. Once you locate repeatable patterns, those patterns begin to reveal interior patterns that would have been unseen before. So, the discovery of one pattern, typically leads to another, and another, and another, etc...
Juts like the old Revlon commercials. "And they tell two friends, and so on, and so on, and so on, and so on..."
Patterns in the markets are everywhere. Good repeatable patterns that you can count on in the clutch, are not easy to find - but they are there.
PebbleTrader wrote:In other words, it is a lot easier and simpler to just trade guessing.
Guessing during moments and periods of market compression and consolidation will end your trading day rather quickly. That's blind guessing and I do not condone such an approach.
However, finding creative ways to locate high probability continuance of magnitude and momentum, can make trading in cycles, just as profitable as trading predictive trajectories in the market (since trends are a legendary urban myth).
Guessing about Direction is one thing - you'll never achieve a non-linear growth wealth building model like that. Guessing about magnitude is fatal. In other words, the Non-Directional trader had better know something about how to predict the continuance of magnitude/momentum. Without it, that trader is dead in the water - sooner, or later.
PebbleTrader wrote:Freeing up my time and life energy is much more important than making billions of dollars in the market. Any time and life energy I spend in the market making more money than I need to live a pretty simplistic life is wasted precious time and life energy.
Some people need billions, some don't. Those that don't typically won't understand those that do. Other people have no more motivation in life that goes beyond their own selfish self-interests. While other people in life, have no desire to do anything other than roll out of bed in the morning, if that much. Some people are lazy, slothful, unambitious and without direction in their lives. While other people are out there trying to figure ways to improve life on this planet for the majority.
A billion dollars? That's a drop in the bucket for what's really necessary to meet the challenges ahead for certain people. Some people out there have really big plans and designs to actually make them a reality.
Others - just dream without doing what's required to make those dreams a reality.
PebbleTrader wrote:I have looked at doing calcs on OHLC data. It does produces results, but they are not predictive and they don't show me anything I could not see by looking at a price chart showing OHLC. It may make something stand out more. It can also be used in combination with other calcs to help you see what is going on without having a bunch of charts open on many screens.
It depends on what calcs on OHLC are used. I can bring a knife to a gun fight, but the probability of me winning is fairly low, LOL! (funny).
It all goes back to creative thought and locating repeatable patterns that can be relied upon in the clutch. And the clutch, is whenever you enter the market. Failure to discover those patterns will lead to the error of thinking that predictive analysis in the financial markets won't work. In fact, get the patterns right, and you should be able to see predictive results to a specified target to a minimum of 93%, with some rather large bubbles of accuracy all the way up to 100% for short periods of time.
Hey, nothings 100% perfect all the time, sorry. I have not found that magic pill yet. But, I still think it is doable on some level and with some combination of Directional and Non-Directional models.
Finding the proper link between the two: Priceless.
PebbleTrader wrote:I do think you should consider working on your social / mental skills/beliefs. I'm not saying this to be mean or anything like that, but more to be helpful. I think you should seriously question some of your belief systems and see if there might be a better way to view yourself and others. I think if you did that it would have a very positive affect on your life in general.
I think you should try being more intellectually honest. I'm not saying this to be mean or anything, but I think the social environment of online trading communities, tends to lead to Group Think, and Group Behavior, where people who might otherwise retain their intellectual honesty, end up losing it for all the wrong reasons.
Attempting to correct someone who initially provided no reason for correction, is a bit like walking in front of a PW-4000 at full throttle, getting sucked through the intake, shredded to death by the fan blades, spit out the other end of the turbine and then blaming the pilot for parking his Boeing 767 directly in front of your path.
That's silly, but hey - that's the exact same kind of mentality that I run into on trading forums all the time. Nothing new, here. Its the same old story: Naysayers with an attitude problem. Nothing more and certainly nothing less.
If you can read this thread from the start, point out exactly where I initiated an ounce of negativity, then I will retract what I just indicated about you. But, until then, you are no different than the others - other than the pseudo semblance of an outward expression of civility, that harbors no genuine [true] intent of its implied purpose.
I would say that some of the more successful people I know are some of the most humble, non-egotistical, they rarely talk about their success, and purposely wish to stay under the radar, and really care not what others think of them.
You'd be surprised (shocked) to find out who is and who was actually online in the trading community, attempting to discuss trading with knuckle heads and eventually got frustrated and left - never to return.
In fact, I just got off the phone last night with a trader who lives in the Silicone Valley, someone I had not had contact with for over 5 years, and he reminisced about how he used to "blow-up" at people who attempted to de-rail what he was trying to teach online to newbies. We met at a economic forum conference in San Francisco, years earlier.
Today, years later, we both run our own closed-end private fund (moving our own private capital) and doing quite well.
So, don't think for one moment that you've got the pulse of everyone who is successful in their selected profession. Some retort back an unnecessary attacks, and some don't. Its a personal preference and independent of their output as a professional XY or Z.