Skaven's Road to the Banks

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SkavenDC
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Past 2 weeks

Postby SkavenDC » Mon Jun 28, 2010 12:23 pm

Alright. I just decided to put all this in one post to just get it done. As of June 8th, I was up 5.3% on my account for the week. The rest of that week and the following week put me about 35% down on my account overall. Classic mistakes (for me at least) and letting my emotions get the best of me.

I was just trading the psych levels (00,25,50,75) and having pretty good success with it. Threw in some buzzard reversals and had some pretty good success with that too. In Forex, losses happen and so they did for me. I was fine with it at first, but after a few in a row, it got the best of me. So what I did was dust off the old nugget of doubling up on a losing trade. Well. As I am sure you all know, that did not work. For some reason I lost more. I mean, it's done that in the past, but I have no idea why it did it this time. Again. Kidding of course. So, now, I am losing even more, so all my rules (simple as that are...see red go short...see green go long) at this point are thrown out the window. Now I am just throwing up random trades trying to recoup my losses. Mainly just trying to jump on the moving train. Instead now, I am doubling, and tripling, and doubling my triple. At least previously, I was doubling up on a trade with a rule attached to it. Now, I was just tossing out trades. For some reason that didn't work either. Again, just kidding.

So, in a fit of frustration, I quit for a day. Sat down and thought about what I was doing. Luckily all my doubling and tripling got me so close to a margin call, it actually protected the bulk of my account, so I still had plenty to work with and learn something. What I learned was that I needed to stick to rules, but to me (at that point) the most important thing I needed to do was control my trades. So with Wednesday, Thursday and Friday (16th-18th), I just wanted to control trades. So I reduced my lot size to the minimum and threw up random trades. Didn't look at the chart. Just looked at the market watch window. If it clicked up, I sold. If it clicked down, I bought. I then clicked to close the position and watched the ticks for a bit. If I felt as thought it was going to make a little profit, I stuck in it. If it looked like a loser, I got out. I actually took a lot out of that. Although I didn't exactly make profit, I controlled my loss. I engaged in several trades, and did not ever exceed my daily loss limit. That was important to me.

So, that weekend, I regrouped. Did some reading here on Kreslik and got myself ready for the trading week. In doing so, I discovered Sam Seiden and his series of videos. So, I watched a few of them. For me at least, the discussion on Supply and Demand made things really click. I looked at some charts. Tried to close my eyes and move the chart back. This enabled me to draw some lines without knowing the outcome, but still be able to see how it turned out. Things looked good, so I re-watched a few videos and watched a few others. Placed some more lines and things looked even better.

So the week opens and I look to fad some gaps. First trade was a 0 gain (s/l placed too close) and the second was a 15 pip loss (unattended trade with a set s/l and t/p). Not a great start to the week, but I didn't care. I would not let my emotions get the best of me. As the rest of the week progressed, I (in my opinion) did very well. Only other loss was on Friday, which I controlled to only 5 pip loss. I had a few smaller lot size trades during the week, so I didn't make 10% on the account, but I did hit my pip target and exceeded it by 22. I did hit 7.8% on the account. The loss from the gap would have put me over 10% if I didn't have that.

As the week ended, I looked forward to the coming week so I could continue to apply what I learned.

Good Trading
Edward

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SkavenDC
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Postby SkavenDC » Mon Jun 28, 2010 12:47 pm

So, we are now up to today. I faded a gap yesterday to the tune of 14 pips. It's not a lot, but it's profit. It was a downward trending market so I felt good about the gap up. I could have taken close to 40 pips before any serious reversal, but for now, I am concentrating on my entrys. I'll refine my exit at a later point.

Supply and Demand. I see it. I really do. I placed lines and watched the price hit the order, move as I predicted and then hit a take profit. I then placed real orders and observed the same thing. Hit order, behave exactly like I predict and then hit the take profit. Now, it hit the take profit of course after I have liquidated for a smaller profit. It's alright though. I will work on my exits later. The main point is that I seem to be nailing the entrys very well. I place lines and I see it just tap the line and go in the direction I needed it to go. I even made a noob error I forgot about. Since I am with a FSB, I forgot to add the spread to my buy order. I missed 3 orders that would have made good pips. In fact, here is an order that I missed last night (I'll work on the size too).

Image

The bottom blue line was my original entry and the top was my take profit. I did not put my stop loss in there simply because it never even came close to it. After two tests on the area (two white ovals) I felt that I placed my order too low, so I lowered it (bottom green line) to the next supply zone. That is actually the one I was waiting on, but was hoping to catch a couple smaller ones on the way down. It seems, that as I was going to bed, my order would have just been hit, and my take profit would have just been taken later in the night. That trade would have made my 10% for the week. It is not the first time that it has happened.

What I find......scary....is the "just hit" portion of that. I'm not trading scared. I am just not use to me being able to see the trade. I am use to placing a trade, and having it move against me. Or, placing a trade and after suffering through massive loss, breaking even. I am not use to seeing a trade, knowing exactly (or damn close) where to take it, and knowing exactly where to end it. I am even writing this 6 bars past the picture and I see it ranging there. I see the area of supply or demand forming.

TRO will probably say that there is no supply or demand since it's basically support and resistance, but it appears to be working for me. I have a lot to refine on it and I will always have something to learn, but for now, this is what I am looking at. I know that the chart is past history, but that's how it went (would have went) down. Perhaps if I get more comfortable with it, I will post some predictions for all to comment/criticize on.

Good Trading
Edward

PS - I know I don't really need the Volumes on there, but I like it for now.

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MightyOne
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Postby MightyOne » Sun Jul 04, 2010 12:56 pm

Trading can be difficult

or

trading can be easy

http://i48.tinypic.com/2ufshva.jpg

it is all about perception :shock:

aliassmith
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Postby aliassmith » Sun Jul 04, 2010 1:40 pm

SkavenDC wrote:TRO will probably say that there is no supply or demand since it's basically support and resistance, but it appears to be working for me.


Skaven,

You can call it supply/deman, support/resistance, held profit, zline, fried
pickels. Personally I think of it as "order stacks" and "profit taking". Sam
calls it Supply and Demand, but if you pay close attention he talks about
having orders stacked on his desk at certain price levels.

Looks like MightyOne showed a nice 50% correction and a WDL 8)
Seems like breakout traders created an order stack in that area.
Trade Your Way as Long as It Makes Money!

SkavenDC
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Postby SkavenDC » Tue Jul 06, 2010 12:10 pm

aliassmith wrote:Skaven,

You can call it supply/deman, support/resistance, held profit, zline, fried
pickels. Personally I think of it as "order stacks" and "profit taking". Sam
calls it Supply and Demand, but if you pay close attention he talks about
having orders stacked on his desk at certain price levels.


Oh yea. I see it. I did pay close attention. I "see" the order stacks. I seem to be able to "see" the order stacks at a certain price level because when price goes to the area that I believe that it will come back, it does. I also "see" the order stack getting smaller with each of the subsequent hits on that area. I am just not use to being able to "see" this action. Honestly, it's the first time I have been able to make trades that have not been just pure luck.

aliassmith wrote:Looks like MightyOne showed a nice 50% correction and a WDL 8)
Seems like breakout traders created an order stack in that area.


I understand the whole 50% thing and I really don't know what a WDL is yet, but I'm getting there. Problem is (probably not a real problem) that this action happened as I went to bed and ended as I was getting up. The bottom blue line was my initial buy entry and the top blue line was my initial take profit that I canceled....literally....5 minutes before it started. I have not had very much luck with trades I allow to take place over night without me watching them, so I canceled it.

I haven't had the opportunity to analyze MO's additions to it yet. He has a lot to process that I have not yet gotten to.

Edward

PS - I really appreciate the input. Nice to see a more educated/experienced trader chiming in on the new(ish) guys journal.

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SkavenDC
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Postby SkavenDC » Tue Jul 06, 2010 12:15 pm

MightyOne wrote:Trading can be difficult

or

trading can be easy

http://i48.tinypic.com/2ufshva.jpg

it is all about perception :shock:


As of now, trading is a little less difficult than it was in the past, but not as easy as I would like it to be yet. I'm working on it.

Sorry I don't have anything more....inspirational....to reply, but I have not gotten to much of your concepts yet. Trying to take it one step (I guess my own steps) at a time. I just wanted to take the time to respond to your post since you took the time to post in my journal. I will definitely take a look at your mark-ups on my chart. Thank you.

Edward

SkavenDC
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Postby SkavenDC » Wed Jul 13, 2011 2:15 am

So, I'm still around. Fatherhood made it too difficult to pay attention to this but I'm back. Reloaded the trading platform again and after about a week of just staring at the charts, I found my way back to Kreslik. Restarted the NLA thread and actually worked my way through it. Well to about page 500 at least. Not ready for the "Diamond of Perception" yet, but I'll get to that too. What I do get and understand (at least on a basic level) is Z-lines. So, I will post a couple charts (one took and one missed). In the future, I will be posting my trades as I take them and the following results. Sorry about images if they are fubar'd. I will work on refining those as well. Before I get to the charts though I have a few thank you's.

#1 TRO - Thank you for telling me there was a bank and at least giving me the partial address. There are a lot of businesses that have 10 in the address.

#2 MightyOne - Not only did you give me the complete address of the bank, but you gave me a map as well. Now it's up to me to decide how to travel there.

#3 es/pip - Although MO gave me a map it was in the wrong language. I really appreciate you translating it for me. Your clear charts were a big help.

Trade taken - Against the trend, but was anxious to try it out live. 10 pip s/l (1%) netted 73 pip gain (7.3%). Hour 1 mightyzone to mightyzone. In at the green check at the 50% mark and out at the red x.

Image

Trade not taken - With the overall trend. Would have used a larger s/l but would not have needed it. 1% risk would have netted 13.7% ( or more had I been awake to control it).

Image

Kinda rushing this because I have to get to bed and get up early, but I wanted to get this up on-line. I'll post again when I have more time.

Regards,
Edward

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Postby SkavenDC » Wed Jul 13, 2011 2:17 am

Double post. Always wondered how that happens. Now I know.

SkavenDC
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Postby SkavenDC » Thu Jul 14, 2011 4:52 pm

Alright. Here's one from this morning.

First the houry chart. Had a big push down but the bulls pushed it back up, so I felt comfortable with the long.

Image

Here it is on the 5 minute. Three candles closed green in the MightyZone. There was a big push up followed by a big push down, so as it was rising back up, I placed a buy stop just above the 50% mark. Had I not been available to actually watch the trade progress, I may have placed a buy limit at the 50% or a little lower. It's iffy as to if I would have been stopped out or not. The downdraw was about equal to a 480 atr on the 15 minute chart from the 50% line.

Image

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Postby SkavenDC » Thu Jul 14, 2011 5:01 pm

So, I actually exited earlier than I was aiming for, which by the way was the red line on the previous hour chart. I got a call and had to jet out to a meeting. There was another mightyzone long that was tested a second time with 2 closed bear bars. I rode it out for about 5 extra pips, but closed close to the red arrow towards the top of the candle. Netted me ~4.5% on my account which I am happy with. If I was not already trading the absolute smallest trade possible, I would have closed out half and let the rest ride.

Image

As it turned out, I did alright. Took a downward dive that would have stopped me out. What you can't see is my original target up about 60 pips. I did notice however a new short mightyzone (light blue box) that could have netted me additional pips.

Image

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