Edward's Top Ten Reasons Aspiring Traders Never Succeed

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eudamonia
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Edward's Top Ten Reasons Aspiring Traders Never Succeed

Postby eudamonia » Mon Nov 26, 2007 7:29 pm

People are always looking for new indicators. And when new indicators are scarce Kreslik.com becomes quiet. For the past several months Avery and others having been telling folks that all they need is the BuyZone. But most people don't listen. They want another indicator, another setup, or they say that Avery's methods can't be backtested (in TradeStation or some other weak arsed software). I hear a lot of this baloney. I thought I'd post some ideas on why most aspiring traders never make it.

1) B.S. Backtesting.

Why is it B.S you ask? Because as Michal told me - "Edward you must KNOW what you are doing". And most people haven't the foggiest idea of what they are doing when it comes to trading or programming let alone both. Too many good ideas are annihilated by stupid principals. Do you really think that Avery and other savvy traders are taking all market orders for a scalping system? Do you really think that I don't know what the market is doing within a 1 minute bar? Or that I care what the S&P was doing in 1997 (the market has changed in several big ways since then)? Or other such rubbish? Get real. 99% of all aspiring traders are not smart enough to effectively backtest their ideas because they can't trade in the first place :shock: Which is why they attempt to program their way out of the problem. This is effectively like trying to beat Tiger Woods by creating a robot golfer with your 1 college robotics class and $200. Not going to happen! So what should an aspiring trader do instead? Try forward testing your ideas. It takes longer to build a statistically relevant database but your results will be totally accurate.

2) No money = no money.

This is a simple but really prevalent problem. I just talked with a trader two weeks ago. He could not understand why he has blown out 2 $5k accounts trading the Russell - and he was trading 2 contracts! I told him that even with my best system I would not trade 1 contract on the Russell with less than $5k. Got that? You need money - at least $15-25k and then only if you can trade will that do you any good.

3) Heard about the "X" indicator.

This is the Jesse Livermore principal. When I first read Reminiscences I thought Jesse was an ass for listening to all those turkey tips. But it's more true than ever today. Instead of "tips" these days its indicators. Buddy I got a new indicator for you - it's called the "Big Money" indicator. What does it do? I have no idea - but it will make you a fortune. Only $599.99. You want to know my secret indicator? It's called the BuyZone - it's a classic breakout indicator. Been around for at least 50 years. I also use another arcane indicator - it's called a moving average :0. That's all you need! The rest is all about your trading competence. As Jesse says - only the market can tell you about the market. Indicators are only a guideline - the operator is one who can discern true market action.

4) No Discipline :oops:.

This really should be number 1 on the list - because it is really caused by laziness and the desire for "easy money". Trading ain't easy. Running my catering business with it's cranky brides, broken equipment and moaning employees is still easier than trading. Got that? Depending on your method and timeframe even a good system will experience flat periods or drawdowns lasting weeks or even months! If you haven't tested this thoroughly then you are doomed! You think it's gonna be easy to lose again and again over a two-week or two-month period. Are you still going to be as eager to take the last trade as the first? You'd better if you want to make it! It's like I told a guy last week - the market pays me to take a licking for 8 out of 10 times so that I can really beat the living $#*&! out of the market that 1 or 2 times and make it all back and then some. Even scalping has it's dry periods - nobody is immune.

5) When do I get out of here?

A couple weeks ago I was working with an aspiring trader and we were simulating (tick by tick) exactly how I do my trade setups. I encouraged him to try some of his trade setups and was stunned. He had fantastic entries (actually they were classic TA such as butterflies and flags) :D. But what really stunned me was that he had no predetermined exit plan. NONE! He would ratchet his stops tighter and tighter as the trade went on (regardless of what the market was doing) And then he would wait until the market literally scared the poop out of him to exit or his stop was hit. This is so common I can't really say more than that. To give you all an idea I spend a lot more time working on exits than entries. Any idiot can tell a breakout or a momentum move is beginning. Only a genius trader can exit at precisely the right moment.

6) Don't watch the market enough to know anything.

Most of the "back testers" I talk to don't watch their market in real time :shock: It's a bold statement but one I think is true. Do you want to trade like Avery (or any other skilled trader for that matter)? Then do what I do every morning - sit in front of the market for the first 2 hours and do NOTHING else but watch. It's critical that you accept NO distractions. Watch the price. Watch how your favorite indicator (i.e. Moving Average) reacts to the price. Watch volume (if you've got it for your market). Watch time and sales. Do this for 6 months to a year. It will change your life I promise. If at the end of 6 months you can't discern when "sustained movement" is about to occur then quit trading. Save yourself the heartache. I guarantee that 99% of you (o.k. you have to be able to physically see) could do this and see what I see (or any experienced trader sees). Only 1% of you will listen. Too bad. BTW you need to watch the market during relevant hours. The most important time of day for the Russell is 9:30 a.m. EST. For the Euro/Pound it's the London open (followed by the NY).

7) Lack of persistence.

People who end up succeeding have failed many times. Failures fail once and quit. Keep failing. Keep working. According to what most people say it takes about 3 years to start being successful as a trader. I find this to be mostly true. Actually it's all about hours. For myself it took about 3 years spending an average of 20 to 30 hours per week testing, trading, failing, working...But I'm not the brightest crayon in the box - some folks might figure it out faster. Live breath and eat trading. Think about nothing else. Be obsessed (I sure am). Go beyond work, beyond play into simply being.

8) Why am I trading this market/timeframe?

Another ever so common problem. I hear "I got into Forex because of this stupid course and now I want to learn how to trade Forex" a lot. And not just for Forex. It is so important that your methodology, your psychology and your checkbook all support your market and timeframe. If you choose a market and timeframe arbitrarily you will get less than ideal results. I wouldn't try to scalp the Urea market for 2 ticks and I wouldn't try to swing trade the mini S&P. Why? Because they are not the ideal markets for those activities (unless you have a seat at the exchange for the Urea market I suppose). Also I wouldn't look only at daily bars for a scalping setup or at minute bars when I'm swing trading. You'd think that this is common sense but it's not. Are you trend trading - then look for markets that trend frequently (i.e. currencies). Are you interested in volatility based trading - then look at volatile markets like the DAX and ER2. Nuff said.

9) Lack of decisiveness.

Usually there is a reason why we lack decisiveness. It's because we haven't thoroughly tested our idea or become confident with trading our style. I strongly encourage simulated real-time trading to solve this problem.

10) Afraid to succeed.

Weird huh? With a capitalistic society you would think we wouldn't have this hang up. Is it because trading looks physically easy to do? Is it because it is hard to see how it benefits society? Is it because we are unsure of ourselves? It is an interesting dilemma. But I ask you this: What is your contribution to society from your day job? If you are in an office you push papers for someone (either the government or commerce) - who do you really help? If you are in retail, construction etc. your work may have more obvious effects. Most people find it hard to overcome this fear of success in the markets because the markets have no limits. None. In the next minute the Russell could go up or down 20 points and you and I have absolutely no ability to control it. Your account can go down to 0 (or worse) or increase by millions depending on how you manage it. In no other job are we so empowered (our income can be limitless) and yet so fearful (we can also have negative income). Trading is about freedom - and freedom can be a scary thing. Are you sure you want to be free?

Edward

P.S. I know most of you aspiring traders won't read my post so for a limited time I'm offering the magical "Pooper Scooper" indicator that wins 99% of the time (never mind what happens that 1% of the time). Right now I'm offering this indicator on a limited basis for the low low price of $999.99. This is a once in a lifetime offer! P.M. me for details.

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Postby cjackson » Tue Nov 27, 2007 7:07 am

:smt006 ill be reading this more than once thanks!

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Postby rrobin » Tue Nov 27, 2007 10:17 am

4) No Discipline :oops: .

I should write a book.

rr :roll:

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Postby camdavis » Fri Dec 07, 2007 6:08 am

Great post Ed, especially agree on the part about knowing when to exit a trade. Very important.

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Proper Exit Plans

Postby lloydphilip » Mon Jan 21, 2008 5:24 pm

Edward,

The exit plan is the hardest thing out there. BY FAR the hardest. Could you, when you get a moment share some ideas on what people should look into to create an exit plan? I've been struggling with this myself and I'm also struggling to explain to friends that trying to take 1R per trade or letting a winner turn into a loser is the primary reasons why most of their trades fail.

I've come up with some ideas that have worked but I have been consistent in it. So far it hasn't bit me but it will soon if I don't get it ironed out.

LP

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Reply to LP on Exit Plan

Postby peter_77_peter » Mon Jan 21, 2008 7:17 pm

Dear LP,

there is a Thread concerning Exit Strategies in this Forum, containing a lot of Links and Input, that might be of help for your considerations...

the link is:
http://kreslik.com/forums/viewtopic.php?t=706

....please feel free to contribute to it if you`d like to share some of your insights or sources of information considering Exits......

best,
Peter

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eudamonia
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Postby eudamonia » Mon Jan 21, 2008 7:53 pm

Pirates,

Be advised. The infamous "Pooper Scooper" indicator has been greatly improved (no those backtests weren't curve fit - but the new "Improved Super Pooper Dooper Scooper" has been brilliantly re-engineered to better capture current market conditions). BullS#it. Whoops bless me.

The Improved Super Pooper Dooper Scooper is now selling for the low low price of $9999.99. Get yours while its still hot (and moist). Only 100 copies will be sold (until I find the way to scam the next bunch of losers).

Lord Tedders
Eudaimonia (pron.: you-die-moan-e-a) (Greek: εὐδαιμονία) is a classical Greek word commonly translated as 'happiness'. The less subjective "human flourishing" is often preferred as a translation.

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Re: Reply to LP on Exit Plan

Postby 4x=0 » Mon Jan 21, 2008 10:16 pm

peter_77_peter wrote:Dear LP,

there is a Thread concerning Exit Strategies in this Forum, containing a lot of Links and Input, that might be of help for your considerations...

the link is:
http://kreslik.com/forums/viewtopic.php?t=706

....please feel free to contribute to it if you`d like to share some of your insights or sources of information considering Exits......

best,
Peter

Lloyd,
There are numerous helpful contributions in the above mentioned thread about exit strategies (all 100% free). I hope you enjoy reading it. Food for thought at the very least.

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Postby TheRumpledOne » Thu Jan 24, 2008 4:45 am

PIRATE EXIT STRATEGY:

TAKE ALL YOU CAN, GIVE NONE BACK!
IT'S NOT WHAT YOU TRADE, IT'S HOW YOU TRADE IT!

Please do NOT PM me with trading or coding questions, post them in a thread.

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Postby 4x=0 » Thu Jan 24, 2008 5:08 am

TheRumpledOne wrote:PIRATE EXIT STRATEGY:

TAKE ALL YOU CAN, GIVE NONE BACK!


woops. this individual did not get the pirate memo.

http://youtube.com/watch?v=Mk3hmifWLhE

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