AAPL Analysis

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eyal8r
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AAPL Analysis

Postby eyal8r » Thu Jun 12, 2008 5:15 pm

TRO or others-
I am looking at a strategy on AAPL- trading it's range from the open price. I was considering trading from the open, to a point that is statistically in my favor for a target. I am aware of TRO's Buy Zone, and am actively trading it. I wanted to see if we could snag more of the Daily Range out of it. In the moment, I am thinking of using 1/2 the Avg Daily Range as a target exit point. I want to see what the 'odds' are of hitting that point? So, my numbers from yahoo finance and Excel show this for the last 100 days-

ADR 5.53
Hi 13.98
Low 2.16
Open-High Range 2.67
Open-Low Range 2.86

I want to see what the % odds are of the price hitting the 50%, 60%, 70%, 80% marks of the Average Daily Range? You'll notice that the ranges are different for when it's from the Open to the High of the day, and the Open to the Low of the day- so we'll have to account for that. Can anyone help with this?
Thanks

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eyal8r
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Postby eyal8r » Thu Jun 12, 2008 6:02 pm

ok, adding to this-
On days that closed BULLISH- I have a Avg Daily Range of 3.73.
On days that closed BEARISH- I have a Avg Daily Range of 3.083

Going for a 50% target on each range, it would be: 1.86, 1.54 respectively.

So I counted the number of times in the last 100 days it went past these 50% targets, and I get-

49 times out of 56 Bullish Days
32 times out of 44 Bearish Days.

Which translates to:
87.5% odds of hitting the 50% Avg Daily Range Mark on BULLISH Days.
72.73% odds of hitting the 50% Avg Daily Range Mark on BEARISH Days.

Can anyone confirm this?

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Postby TheRumpledOne » Fri Jun 13, 2008 2:05 am

AAPL STATS... if it goes up to open + .10, more times than not, it will go open +.50 before the day is done.

AAPL likes to fill the opening gap so fade the gap using the Buy Zone. Today, that move paid off over $5 a share!
IT'S NOT WHAT YOU TRADE, IT'S HOW YOU TRADE IT!

Please do NOT PM me with trading or coding questions, post them in a thread.

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