A year has gone by - some things to ponder. :)

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dchappy
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Postby dchappy » Mon Oct 06, 2014 10:44 pm

webcom wrote:Hello xtremeforex,

Nice your`re back from time to time.What happened to your BMW after moving abroad?

Your success story is impressive but obviously not so easy to achieve as it seemed in the "tone of bricks" thread.

Personally I think that Forex trading is only done by institutional traders at 1:1 rate meaning no such thing as "leverage".Nobody could undoubtedly convince me that retail Forex for the masses even exists beyond all elaborated facades.

In my opinion ALL "brokers" are running fake virtual trading.No retail "trader" is, was or will be in the position to win. No order goes to the market.NDD is a fairy tale .The 95-97% losers and only 3-5% winners legend is the best ever marketing trick absolving the sharks of their malevolent deeds.

Now,I tend to be convinced by your succés and thus I tend to belive that you made the impossible possible: you found a honest and "play by the rules" Forex Broker.My question is wich broker(s) you can recommend?
Would your attitude change if you were part of the 3-5% winners ?

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webcom
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Postby webcom » Tue Oct 07, 2014 3:46 am

[[/quote]Would your attitude change if you were part of the 3-5% winners ?[/quote]


My "attitude" would change dramatically if the so called "retail Forex" bussiness would be more transparent.At least as transparent and reputable as betting companies. When ratio complaints against "brokers" vs customer satisfaction will reverse to the opposite from actual 90%-10%..When obvious fake testimonials and fake referals to credible sourses will disapear.Etc etc

That is the reason I would like to know if anyone is even trading in real accounts and being profitable.If beyond demos and building strategies and holly grail chassing this bussiness is for real.

You can be sure that in the moment "Forex brokers" will be at least as honest as betting companies the 3-5% will be 20-40% and still capble to run the bussiness.And no,I m not in love with betting companies.

Xtreme is profitable , his broker let him win a BMW away from him in the past.He continues to be profitable.That means he has a honest broker who plays by the rules. I simply want to know the name of the broker who will permit such a thing.And if there are more of the kind.

dchappy
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Postby dchappy » Tue Oct 07, 2014 6:03 pm

Well, you study these things more deeply than I do . All I can tell you is my FOREX broker is Gain capital , and for 10+ years ,they have done everything that I have asked of them .

xtremeforex
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Re: A year has gone by - some things to ponder. :)

Postby xtremeforex » Fri Jan 02, 2015 11:32 pm

Hi Webcom,

I would prefer not to state a broker as I do not want to undermine my own credibility, because I don't promote products or services and I hate it when other people do - on forums.

People on this forum are not stupid and are capable of doing their own research, so I will leave it to them to find a reputable broker.

What I can do is assure that they do exist, however it would be in your best interest to determine how to secure your strategies and methods. You can make money from Forex, but as soon as you do, somebody is going to figure this out and want to know what you're doing. You will be inviting a lot of attention without being aware of it.

We are often so caught up behind the computer, on websites, broker platforms and forget there are people on the other side. I mean, there is even online helpdesk software for websites, and the online help-person can see what what you're writing before you even hit enter (by recording keystrokes). So even if you hit backspace and delete a sentence and then hit enter, they still saw what you had written.

Technology is a fascinating thing and being monitored is very simple to do technologically and is not beyond the scope of abilities for brokers.

Are there unscrupulous brokers & people - definitely.

#1. Avoid baby-pips or forums that advertise brokers.

#2. Avoid all fixed-spread brokers.

#3. Look at brokers that are based in "1st-world" countries and ensure they have a physical presence and people that can be reached very easily. Attempt to ask if you can visit their office. Bad brokers will make excuses. Good brokers would be fine and nonchalant with this. If you actually visit, ensure it is their office and not a virtual office, by examining marketing, signage, talking to reception.

#4. Avoid all people who sell strategies or robots. No winner would ever disclose their strategy - period. When you have a winner, you may not understand this now, but it will come with paranoia. I once misplaced a hard-copy print out of my code, because sometimes I like to just analyze on paper. I freaked out - horribly.

#5. If you're coding a bot, design trading baits, distractions and logic that will be difficult to study your code or analyze trading patterns, even create losing trades on purpose - if that helps disguise your strategy.

#7. Consider going the automated route. You are missing a lot of experimental abilities such as back-testing and others. If you can find a trusted coder go for it, although I advise people code their own robot if possible.

#8. Don't be discouraged, it is possible, but you need to think outside the box.
Imagine 95% and 5% being a pie-chart on a wall. Now imagine you have to throw 10 darts at this chart blind-folded. Where do you think most of these darts will land? If you take the blind-folds off and try it, you may marginally or perfectly improve your chances. Right now, you still have the blindfolds on. You're frustration is because you -don't- know your blindfolds are -on. It is very easy to fall in the 95% group and think it is impossible, you could throw the dart 100 times and the first 95 times may end up in the LOSE zone.

#9. Be patient and have realistic expectations.
I recommend that before you commit all your time and energy to this, that you have or are developing other sources of income. Consider this as an experiment that you gradually devote your time and energy too as you become proficient. Alot of frustration in trading comes from expectations that are not met not quickly enough. This is not a "get-rich quick" route but it is certainly a "get-rich easy" route in terms of flexibility/time etc.
However you still -need- time to do even something that is -easy.

#10 I bet your expectations are -not- realistic.
Many people in the 95% camp are trying to make several hundred or thousands of percent per year. The harder you try to milk this cow, the more likely its' going to kick you.

Many 95%'ers laugh at the idea of making 100-400% a year, they think that is a failure and that is because, they are working with low account balances (like $500).

To see $500 go to $1000 in one year is an excruciating long time, it doesn't make the effort or wait worthwhile. However $100,000 becoming $200,000 or $200,000 becoming $400,000 in one year isn't so bad. Do you see the huge difference?

Most 95%'ers problem is, they haven't learned the difference between an ROI and an Absolute ROI. If you want to fix this very common psychological problem amongst the 95%'ers. I encourage you to demo-trade with a -larger- account balance and deliberately work to bring in a more reasonable
Absolute ROI, that makes your time & effort worth and satisfied with.

Once you have mastered this, then it up to you to figure out how to fund this in reality (if that amount capitalization is beyond your scope). You might be able to do it well even with $10,000. It will be all up to you to determine what is worth your time & effort.

Trying to make a living off trading from the get-go with very low account capitalization will -NOT- work. However, if you are patient and do it on the side - then it will work, where you can periodically cash-inject ability to stimulate faster growth. When you have reached the right point for you - then you could safely leave your job. If you want to profit from low capitalization, you must expect -smaller- absolute returns or expect losing it all - and worse, you will not have the kind of motivation to produce the kind of effort required to trade at your best

I know people don't like hearing that, because some are unemployed with no jobs. I know this, because that is exactly how I started. I started to learn trading - before - I found my next job and then stuck with it and then made it a point in my mind, to keep saving so I could get to my 'dream capitalization' - which was actually only $10,000. However, it was $10,000 I was happy to lose. A big difference.

I kept the learning process going -while- employed. Some people find their next job and then call it a day. They forget about trading or maybe even completely dismiss it - once they got their 'lives back on track.'

The 95%'ers will give up when things are going ironically - right. You got to stick with it. You need to keep trading in the back of your head, whether you have a job - or don't. This is your life-experiment to get out of the rat-race.

I hope you get an idea of what it takes. Joining the 3-5% isn't a big secret or conspiracy. It really is about actually taking the journey through success AND failure to finally figure out what is right for - you.

Consider this "preaching" as a generous donation of years of experience.

It is possible. Good luck.

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Re: A year has gone by - some things to ponder. :)

Postby xtremeforex » Sat Jan 03, 2015 1:50 am

Webcom,

As for the BMW. My mother crashed it - in a parking lot.

In the ton of bricks thread, I had a massive realization, an epiphany that was inspired by something Tro said.

Most of my success in trading has little to do with indicators, but everything to do with philosophy and psychology. Ironic, because I am a highly quantitative person. The meat and potatoes in my trading are philosophical. The execution of them are quantitative/technical.

Think deep questions about what is happening. If the market suddenly drops, I don't ask what "line did it break." But I think more about, "how are people reacting to this." What is the probability of reaction A versus reaction B etc.

I measure & consider statistics - but I do not predict direction. If something has statistically done something frequently, I will 'bet' more on it. It doesn't mean it has to happen (very important!) - but it does make my 'bet' -educated- versus -uneducated.

The key difference is, if something has done something statistically -infrequently- I WILL STILL BET - but much less on it.

Unlike the 95%ers they will avoid all statistically bad situations. They do not understand how to exploit statistics properly. It's not about avoidance its' about control. If you avoid a 'statistically bad' situation - you actually trying to predict. If you take part in a statistically bad situation but in a less risky way (smaller bet), that bad situation could turn into a good situation, but if it doesn't, you knew that anyway (and had control) with minimized risk.

But people that only follow a statistically good situation, don't realize that taking advantage of a statistically good situation (when avoiding bad situations) is the same as -prediction-. They forget that a -statistically- good situation could sour and now they do NOT have control, because they bet bigger on this prediction and did not expect it to sour. I know this may be a bit hard to follow. To understand it better, find my thread where I talk about being "lost in a forest." Which may make this concept more apparent. It's a problem I invented, kind of like the Monty Python problem.

Good situations, have potential to become bad.
Bad situations, have potential to become good.

You bet on a gradient not forgetting the potential of situations' reversal. You don't place high (bet) importance on it, but you consider it and are prepared to capitalize on it - if it occurs. Because -statistically- it will occur.

In other words, you should take advantage of all situations, but moderate and control how much risk will be involved in a situation - not to avoid the situation. There are actually three choices in trading that people don't realize.

Based on any given situation, you can: Go LONG, Go SHORT or NOT TRADE. They fail to factor in the implications of the NOT TRADE option when assessing their risk. Most people actually walk around thinking that NOT TRADING has no affect on risk. It does. (See my lost in the forest discussion).

It's about educating your guess and moderating your bet size in relation to your confidence in this guess, which could be calculated quantitatively or qualitatively (the feel). But do NOT lose sight that - every- trade no matter how high the confidence, is always a guess.

The 'secret' is then - what statistics - should you measure, what is more important than what. What are the stats you are going to use to determine the 'situation.'

S/R is a very good starting point, as it is the easiest to measure or acquire statistics like confirmations, particularly if you are a manual trader.

Your strategy does not need to be mathematical or data-centric (although it is ideal), but there should just be some logic that can be replicated in a consistent way, so that what you are doing is essentially - scientific and not gambling.

People say a lot about 'consistency' in strategy, but often I don't think they truly understand what this philosophically means.

When you do something consistent in science for example, you are doing it for the purpose of controlling variables. Keeping things consistent, allow you to easily identify a reaction to a stimulus.

You put in known X into a blackbox, it mixes with an unknown Y and you observe output Z. You observe Z by controlling X, to determine Y.

Consistency in trading should NOT be for being methodical/repetitive. It's about identifying things that fall out of place, to determine a pattern out of things that fall out of place. Alot of 95%ers sometimes try very hard to be consistent, but fail to do another important thing following consistency - which is observation.

It is observation following consistency that makes consistency useful. Otherwise, being consistent is pointless. Placing a trade exactly per instruction, but then not paying attention to what is happening is pointless. What is happening doesn't mean "is it profitable or not" it means, what are the conditions surrounding its' current status of profitability or not. It doesn't actually matter whether it is positive or negative, a lot of learning can be derived from observing its' surroundings when it is negative & losing.

Collect data, then derive conclusions. Otherwise, they are merely assumptions.

Don't make -conclusions- from one observation about why its' negative (what many people do), you are collecting observations. Only from a set - you could make a reasonable conclusion. The conclusion could still be inaccurate, but the conclusion is -likely- to be more reliable than a conclusion made without observation. That is the ONLY certainty.

Xtreme

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webcom
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Re: A year has gone by - some things to ponder. :)

Postby webcom » Sat Jan 17, 2015 5:20 pm

Hi Xtreme,

I feel honoured by your answers,thank you!

As you certainly imagine, it will take some time for me to try to understand
your thoughts about trading and to extract those ideas applicable to my own trading
philosophy.

One more thing I guess :o ,without revealing some bigger secret can you lead to the exact lines in TRO`s
teaching that provoqued the revelation? Algorithmes or charades as leading threads would be fine :wink:


Kind Regards

webcom

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Dillinger
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Re: A year has gone by - some things to ponder. :)

Postby Dillinger » Mon Mar 02, 2015 8:06 pm

Xtreme,

How did the recent CHF movement affect your system? Hopefully it was able to survive the drawdown if you were on the wrong side of that move. Just curious because you had mentioned black swans in another thread and this was about as black swan as they come. Hope your doing well

Dillinger
"So pick up your skirt, grab your balls and let's make some money"

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