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bettlebox
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Postby bettlebox » Thu Sep 27, 2012 5:14 am

all about key levels (open,close and 50%)

Daily ,4hr and 1hr. Enter on 15min chart with 15min zline.

Maybe price needs to retrace bit more whos knows this is trading. It may want to retrace back to the next level ie the daily opening which is the 4hr zline and 1hr zline, but i currently got 3 keylevels , i will manage my trades make sure i dont let them hit my s/l.

If im in the money i will make sure to exit with something or at break even and then start looking again for another entry. I will keep dropping trades until i get a bite or until price moves on to another level.








I like to keep an eye on supply demand 1hr
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Last edited by bettlebox on Thu Sep 27, 2012 6:04 am, edited 1 time in total.
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bettlebox
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Postby bettlebox » Thu Sep 27, 2012 5:42 am

price failed previous post area on to the next key level.

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Postby dojirock » Thu Sep 27, 2012 5:43 am

done for night....
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Postby newscalper » Thu Sep 27, 2012 8:38 am

dojirock wrote:Newscalper,

This is what I mean if im going to trade the 4 hr this is the only way I do it. Top trade, we have a up mbar, you can recognize, yes? Of course. The price closes below the open of that mbar, yes? Yes:4 hour bar opens actually mean diddly though but I'm with you so far. At that point i look at the candle before the up mbar, at the high, thats my other line area, OK. I like to see a body close higher than the line, which it did (the up mbar) and a body to close below that line, which happens after the up mbar: right - so are you saying that you would not be looking for longs after the up 'mbar'? that you only look for failed mbars so you are not trading the 'stops to breakeven effect' but are trading where stops that have not been placed for the breakout but NOT moved to breakeven - i.e. likely below the swing low, they bought, so now they are selling, OR would you have been looking for longs first and not for shorts until the line was crossed? Are you trading post-momo or post-failed momo? Yes, you can do both but longs likely lost in that instance down on the 15. When these things happen,we look for shorts only. The question next is, when it retraces, how far will it retrace? Sometimes its right in the zone, some times its 150percent of the up mbar, it doesnt matter to me as long as it doesn't close above that area. If WHAT doesn't close above the area a 4 hour bar or a 15 minute bar? The last step for me is my favorite rule, when taking shorts, entry must be above the 12 ema. OK, that's just a reversion to mean play a-la bollies, I dig. So I enter.

I dont have the patience for this at this point, so I trade the 15 or 30 min...
4hrs with my schedule just doesnt match up..... and on that basis are the mbars you are basing your trades off on the H4 then drop to the M15 to trade or is the momo you seek on the m15 on you refer to nothing else?

I will mark a 4hr chart like this....then I know the bias if you will....but trade the 15 min for all the shorts all the way down...I think this answer the last question.

I see but I don't see, if you see. It's very easy to see just an H4 chart and see all the winners, M15 often tells a different story - where do you 'position' or place your stop? Beyond the M15 swing or beyond the larger swing? If beyond the larger swing then if 'take what you can' is based on M15 we're back to inverse R:R.

That's the 2 aspects that often get me hammered - either the trade fails (do you get out if 1 M15 bar closes across your line, or 1` H4 bar? because if waiting for the H4 bar your stop will get hit 99% of the time anyway) and the other is when to take profit - defining entries to the nth degree without defining exits is not cricket - if we can define when to enter we can define when to exit because the notion that we cannot predict what will happen next with ANY probability and cannot define an exit means that the entry criteria must be nonsense too. 'Take what you can' most of the time end up in cutting winners, the 1 pip etc exit playbook clearly doesn't work, not moving stops often = price coming back and smashing you to pieces with momo and we may well have been in profit (or we try to avoid that, see price move a bit against us and cut the trade, only to see it turn around and go in our favour, or we trail stops in some way to give breathing space but not get taken out by volatility i.e. below M15 bars etc. I know Dragon used to target previous H1 mbar mightyzones for targets but I could never get that to work either. It's the trade management and exits that makes the money, not the entry.

Thanks :)


Last edited by newscalper on Thu Sep 27, 2012 8:45 am, edited 1 time in total.

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Tony Montana
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Postby Tony Montana » Thu Sep 27, 2012 8:39 am

Great trade doji ;)

and again 6200 is awesome is giving free money

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Postby newscalper » Thu Sep 27, 2012 8:52 am

bettlebox wrote:price failed previous post area on to the next key level.



Great charts BB. Thank you very much indeed :) . That's basically my understanding of it, I just need to get the pieces to 'fit'

I see the short there and the trade has just happened successfuly - do you use hourly bias like Dragon used to also as a further filter?
Now, is the exit at the H4 zline of 28521?

The other piece of the puzzle I 'miss' is this - that level of 28512 is a zline from a previous momo area, as such it's an area to look for longs from? but it's a long time back. Look for H1 momo in that period and mark from there for longs? If not, why not?



Has no-one noticed my chart is completely borked atm? I thought that was the weekend gap....dates are Jan, Sept, there's a massive hole in the data! Trying to clear the history to get it to re download.

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Postby bettlebox » Thu Sep 27, 2012 10:07 am

Maybe try a different broker for your data feed. I swap between axitrader,fxcm and alapri.

One thing on my journey i would say newscalper is the importance having a good entry method. No one seems to talk about here. Its a deeper subject than understanding all this about momos and combining candles. For long time i always thought i wasnt seeing how to play MoMos correctly. I was fiddling around with concepts thinking i wasnt seeing it correctly.I slowly realised importance of entries and managing a trade.

I broke it down to 3 stage:
1) Entry
2) holding
3) exit <--linked to stage 2

1) Entries: I use as (recommended by dragon for good reasons) smallest 15min rat trades. My entry is rat line. I use 1min bar closing beyond my rat line as confirmation, i then wait for next 1min bar to turn the colour im trading and enter as soon as its that colour(dont wait for it to close).(this as saved me alot from sitting on draw downs). Alot people put there stop/loss at other side the rattrade, i dont do this due to some the rat been over 15pips. I have noticed if rattrade setup is going to hold it has a 5min bar inside the 15min rat trade that never get violated. Have a look and you will see it.

another trick i see is , say you bail on trade at your take porfit area and lets say price comes all way back to your orginal 15 min rat trade entry. What you do then is go in to 5 min and watch for price to get into range of 15min rat trade and look for 5min rat trade back out before it violates your orginal stop/loss. If price voilates your 15min rattrade start the process all over again.

2) holding i watch every 1 hr supply/demand level and want to see price close beyond these areas. If see price failing to close beyond them then im out. Also opposite rattrades against your position is good one. Im also expreimenting with trailing stop/loss.

3) exit. Dragon said it best . Enter on 15min zline then exit on 15min zline, enter on 1hr zline then exit on 1hr zline and enter on 4 hr zline then exit on 4hr zline.

sorry if im telling you how to suck eggs. :D

BB


newscalper wrote:
bettlebox wrote:price failed previous post area on to the next key level.



Great charts BB. Thank you very much indeed :) . That's basically my understanding of it, I just need to get the pieces to 'fit'


Has no-one noticed my chart is completely borked atm? I thought that was the weekend gap....dates are Jan, Sept, there's a massive hole in the data! Trying to clear the history to get it to re download.
Last edited by bettlebox on Thu Sep 27, 2012 10:36 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Postby bettlebox » Thu Sep 27, 2012 10:33 am

"I see the short there and the trade has just happened successfuly - do you use hourly bias like Dragon used to also as a further filter? "

Yep i dont trade against 1hr candle colour espically if hasnt hit my line yet and if the rat trade appears in a 1hr that is along way from the 1hr opening. Its just too risky.

What i did was bailed at the 1.2877 of momo up and used my 5min rat entry trick to re-enter on retrace back to my 15min rat trade.
closed at 1.2864 on previous daily close. missed the run down to 50 level :D

Newscalper can you do a picture show that 1.2851 momo?
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Postby newscalper » Thu Sep 27, 2012 10:52 am

That hint re the M1 is good. Thanks
That 50% of the D1 body is quite close to the daily pivot btw.
I use Alpari UK. managed to sort the data out, it was only on EU, everything else was fine. I cleared the history out manually then reloaded the chart.
Here's a picture of the level
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Postby bettlebox » Thu Sep 27, 2012 11:04 am

I wouldnt take along off that just due to weakest of up bars. But you are right that is a valid line and from the bounce yesterday its proved itself. You could attempt alongt but if i did go long i would be watch previous 50% levels like a hawk. It just one this calls you got to make.

Still very much in down trend at moment from evidence so far. i m expecting that level to fail today and for price to drop down.

newscalper wrote:That hint re the M1 is good. Thanks
That 50% of the D1 body is quite close to the daily pivot btw.
I use Alpari UK. managed to sort the data out, it was only on EU, everything else was fine. I cleared the history out manually then reloaded the chart.
Here's a picture of the level
Image
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