bettlebox wrote:Based purely on that chart humble posted and his comments this what i see.
2 pictures 1 is orginal picture its bit of mess so i did a simplfied version of the same price movement to help example what i see.
here is orginal
Well that looks like you're saying the same as Humble in that until every single small TF zline is broken to the downside then price is going up. This cannot be so because it would mean that price is not going down until it's already gone WAY down, actually probably to the higher TF demand area again.
Are you even looking at the higher TF chart. Was there not a big downward move, is there not a supply area there ?
Is the higher TF momo larger or smaller than the small TF momo?
You're either trend trading the small TF or you're trading pure supply and demand retracements from the higher TF and they usually are opposite.
To whoever said something about looking for 100% - no I'm not, stop assuming.
2, also assuming I'm always looking for huge moves, again you are assuming.
Also, this was a trade trying to utilise space no? i.e. no moving of stops to break, not that was chance anyway as price never cleared the spread. And either reducing of lots when price closes across an If then, I exited when price closed across an if/then.
I know you['re being helpful but suggesting yet another method strategy, when trying to work out THIS specific one is not helpful as all it is doing is bringing more variables to the table.
I can tell you that the only trade long above the daily open with hourly bias is just as failure prone as any other I've tested it till death over umpteen years data a coulle of years back, manually in forex tester over about 3 markets. The only condition that made it work was the addition of trend following with the use of a trailing stop at lows, and that included when the trade was not in profit as well as when it was. Exiting after momo, exiting at previous swing highs etc did not 'work'. The problem? It's trend following so the win rate is quite low, sideways markets slaughter you, some markets make you money others destroy you - it's not consistent, some years you make money, others slaughter you etc. It's a crap-shoot. Similarly something as 'idiotic' as H4 breakouts with daily colour can be made to 'work' in testing or H4 bars crossing a 25 line with weekly colour a-la a weekly buyzone...;.caveat being in real time there are trades you don't take as you miss them, don't take because of news etc etc.