Einstein Line - Learning to Scalp

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Jhx
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Re: Einstein Line - Learning to Scalp

Postby Jhx » Wed Dec 04, 2019 7:16 pm

TheRumpledOne wrote:KEEP IT SIMPLE...

Trade what you see!!

Back to basics it is. Bigger moves, smaller moves, price crossing highs and lows and making new ones. I can use this (maybe) as a way to manage my trades, placing stops and moving them, and avoid getting heavily whipsawed. Trying to see the whole thing now instead of getting frantic over single candles.

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Re: Einstein Line - Learning to Scalp

Postby Jhx » Wed Dec 04, 2019 11:12 pm

Note to self. Maybe use previous lows / highs for stops and adjust position size accordingly (instead of the other end of the zone) and follow what price is doing instead of just jumping out @ single candles or at the other end of the zone. Trades might last longer but will have more room to breath and will prevent me from taking extra entries.

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Re: Einstein Line - Learning to Scalp

Postby LeMercenaire » Thu Dec 05, 2019 8:50 am

Jhx wrote:Today I started the day with a long trade, reversed, exit with only a 1 pip loss, and then I stopped with the thought that I really do not have an exit playbook yet (or not something that I can work with), and that getting reversed on the first break has happened several times. And it may have to do with the way the H1 ranges (or most candles for that matter).

GU-12-4.png

This is what I mean. It does break, for not nearly enough, and then reverses, yes it can reverse again but more often than not a wick has to form before "expanding" into the range. I just placed the overlay of H1 candles to see if I was missing something.

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Some other observations from today regarding ranges:

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h1-ranges-3.png


I don't know if I can use any of this to start building an exit playbook or to avoid potential bad entries. I try to keep it as simple as possible but if I take every single entry and don't have a proper exit plan I end up burning myself #-o


Most ranges, no matter the tf, will head-fake one way before going the other. It's just the nature of the beast.

You can maximise the return on this head-fake by getting in on the move back away from the "spike" - so, say around the edge of the range box if you want a line-in-the-sand - and thus minimise the danger of waiting to go in on the opposite break only to see it reverse again. You'll be getting out just as the sheep are getting in.
Last edited by LeMercenaire on Thu Dec 05, 2019 8:56 am, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Einstein Line - Learning to Scalp

Postby LeMercenaire » Thu Dec 05, 2019 8:52 am

Jhx wrote:Of course this is more than an ideal scenario and doesn't happen all the time :lol: . But maybe there's something to look for with highs and lows?

exit-playbook-ideas.png


Well, they are in most cases Z-Lines.

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Re: Einstein Line - Learning to Scalp

Postby Jhx » Thu Dec 05, 2019 4:48 pm

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So I decided to place a stop where it made sense to me in a low in the chart. It was moving up and down in smaller swings so I just placed the stop down there. I looked at the daily range and saw that was below 60 pips (which happened 86% of the time in the last 100 days). So I decided that as long as price is below that number, I'm only taking longs, because there's not many options:
1) Price will reach that range to the upside (what I'll trade).
2) Price will reach that range to the downside (which would mean that it'd have to go all the way down and them some more).
3) Price will not reach that range.

Makes sense to me, in this case, to only go long.

Management? Placed a 5 pip trailing stop when at +10 net pips. Probably done for the day. Looking at highs and lows makes it easier on my eyes (I'll post that chart later on, it helps me I think. I'll keep using them for stops and marking the charts until I can use them for moving my stop to better places. For now I'll just use the trailing stop).

Total: +17 net pips

Don't mind the 50% line, was just looking at something that may or may not be of use.

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Re: Einstein Line - Learning to Scalp

Postby Jhx » Fri Dec 06, 2019 11:51 am

The 'smaller' swings that happen within the larger ones, and I try to use these levels to not get wiggled out of the initial zone too much.

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Re: Einstein Line - Learning to Scalp

Postby Jhx » Fri Dec 06, 2019 11:56 am

Daily range at 54, yes it retraced a bit but still there might be room for more (60 was at 86%). So only looking for shorts. The zone is probably opening around here so this is what I'm looking at:

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Re: Einstein Line - Learning to Scalp

Postby Jhx » Sat Dec 07, 2019 1:08 am

So this was the reasoning, for now this is the simplest way to place a stop that I can find. Highs were price has been rejected or highs from larger swings. Not really know if it's the best thing to do but at least I'm not getting whipsawed within the zone. Yes, it might be obvious because I'm having a wider stops and the reason might not really matter but I'm trying to do it in a way that makes sense to me.

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So price in fact went up first (making a new high) and then down. As I said yesterday, as long as that range isn't hit (the 60~ pip range because I like the stats on it) I'll try to go for it. So I get 2 entries (total +21.3 net pips or +0.84%) and I don't take the third because we made it past that range.

Also I adjust the position size based on the stop size, so pips aren't as "descriptive" as before, maybe I'll start showing it in %. I'm risking the same % (1%) on every trade, not sure if there's a better way.

---

New observations / ideas:

- The stops might be to loose now and the returns are on average might be smaller than the potential stop. Yes a third entry would've made me go to 0.16% (thus eating the previous profits).
- Maybe I could use that stop placement and find a way to "cut losers short" now that I have more room to work with? I just fear that I might add more unnecessary steps and go a step backwards :lol: .

Open to suggestions as well. Please don't take this last part as a "I want to change everything all the time or if I see a losing trade", that's not it. I'm just trying to build my exit playbook and having in mind what could happen in a worse scenario that I could be at.

Hope you all had a great week!

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Re: Einstein Line - Learning to Scalp

Postby Jhx » Mon Dec 09, 2019 3:30 pm

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Trigger rather close to the daily high, only at 48~ for the daily range. Went long at the entry, SL at a previous low (a higher low). That didn't happen and exited at my SL for -13 (-1%).

I'm not trading short because, again, daily range still rather low, my zone is closer to the daily high than it is to the daily low. Yes it could reverse off the high, go all the way to the daily low and expand the range to the downside but so far (or at least these 2 weeks) that has been unlikely. Or the range might not expand anymore and stay where it is.

I would've been hesitant to go long if this didn't happen but I saw price retrace to that place and then go back up (then again I don't have any extra rules so).

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Re: Einstein Line - Learning to Scalp

Postby Jhx » Mon Dec 09, 2019 3:48 pm

On a side note, and I was thinking about this on Friday when I had two wins for +0.84%. I'm not losing more than I'm willing to lose on my trades and I'm keeping it at 1% per trade and adjusting my position size. The problem is if I lose, I'll lose the 1% because now I'm not "cutting it early", and my winners on average won't be over 1%. It's tough, at least to me, to have bigger losers than winners (even if the winrate is high enough, the losers feel heavier). It might be a personal thing, I don't know.

The whole idea about 'widening' my stop to places where it made sense was to give the trade more room to breathe and not get stopped out constantly at unnecessarily tight stops.

But maybe now that I have a wider stop I can use that "extra space" to exit at better places and reducing my average loss...

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I don't kow if there's a better way to do it. This one's the best that I can come up with (exiting at previous lows when going long) but even then some of those feel like very in-the-moment type of exits (the second, third and fourth).

Yes the downside is that it could reverse, then go back up, which gets into the exit > re-enter > exit > re-enter cycle that I was at the first week. Is there a point where I should scratch the idea, not re-enter at the trigger and just say "this one isn't working today?" or should I just keep at it? It's not like I'm going to have 20 entries in the day anyway, but maybe I'm looking at this whole thing with the wrong perspective. I don't know.

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