2009.11.05 DRAIN THE BANKS - REV 9

PINKPANTHER5 · Post by **PINKPANTHER5** » Fri Nov 06, 2009 10:08 pm

Hey TRO,

This "retrace" of the Daily low system seems pretty interesting. I just have a question...

Do we go long at the blue and short at the pink?? Do these highlighted areas point out the Daily high and low?

For example in this case we would go long at "1.48330" and short at "1.48940"

Is this right?

[img][img]http://i38.tinypic.com/qmywq1.jpg[/img][/img]

jonisonvespa · Post by **jonisonvespa** » Fri Nov 06, 2009 10:20 pm

hi tro
hi tro ive read this many times, please can you explain what it means??

"trade with the H1 candle color"

thanks for taking the time

hyperbiz · Post by **hyperbiz** » Sat Nov 07, 2009 12:55 pm

jonisonvespa wrote:"trade with the H1 candle color"

H1 is GREEN - only trade LONG
H1 is RED - only trade SHORT

Post by **TheRumpledOne** » Sat Nov 07, 2009 2:05 pm

PINKPANTHER5 wrote:Hey TRO,

This "retrace" of the Daily low system seems pretty interesting. I just have a question...

Do we go long at the blue and short at the pink?? Do these highlighted areas point out the Daily high and low?

For example in this case we would go long at "1.48330" and short at "1.48940"

Is this right?

Yes. If you look at the legend in the top left-hand side of the chart you will see the triggers for long and short.

It is REVERSE OFF DAILY LOW not "retrace".

PINKPANTHER5 · Post by **PINKPANTHER5** » Sat Nov 07, 2009 2:24 pm

Thanks TRO

tortexal · Post by **tortexal** » Sun Nov 08, 2009 3:25 am

Tro this is a pretty cool study. i checked this out on the euro futures contract (125,000 euros per contract) over the past 2 years and found some interesting results. keep in mind these are for the futures contract and priced in ticks (12.50/usd per tick) @ cme vs pips on fx.

i took the pullback from H and bounce from L for all up days (daily time frame) and down days. then ran it in a monte carlo simulator for 100,000 simulations and came up with the following:

On updays (green daily candle)
pullback from high >=20 ticks is 75%, Avg 43 ticks
bounce from low >=20 ticks is 74%, Avg 41 ticks

On downdays (red daily candle)
pullback from high >=20 ticks 75%, Avg 50 ticks
bounce from low >=20 ticks 79%, Avg 50 ticks

so in theory if you just trade 2x a day on the euro like you mentioned earlier, just a 1 lot from the day high and low you have roughly a 75% of making at least $500 for the day, 2 contracts $1000 and so on. This is all calculated on normal distribution. If you use lognormal, (smallest move from either extreme is 0 ie no move), the percentages are insanely good (90s). Lognormal is probably more accurate, but better to err on the side of caution and take the worse results.

long story short, this method definitely holds up mathematically.

side note, crude @ >= 25 ticks ($250, $10 per tick) is
green day
from H: 77%, From L: 81%
Red day
from H: 80%, From L: 84.5%

Post by **TheRumpledOne** » Sun Nov 08, 2009 4:08 am

Thanks.

Please do me a favor and post your findings here:

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthrea ... number=131

Post by **TheRumpledOne** » Sun Nov 08, 2009 4:12 am

One thing to keep in mind:

"THE RAT ALWAYS TURNED LEFT".

You wouldn't want to wind up at Yale!!

tortexal · Post by **tortexal** » Sun Nov 08, 2009 4:15 am

F yale

roger_over · Post by **roger_over** » Sun Nov 08, 2009 4:54 am

Avery I don't know how you put up with that guy CTrader @ET. I commend you sir . I have finally got my indis loaded and I am understanding the simplicity of this system ..Look forward to demo next week.Also are you still trading in Paltalk?If so Could I be invited please?
Thank you