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Fed Not Likely to Raise Rates in March, but June Is Another Story

Posted: Sun Mar 13, 2016 12:20 pm

This week’s key event is the U.S. Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting on March 15 -16. The committee is expected to discuss raising interest rates at the meeting, but don’t expect them to do so.

This assessment isn’t based on my opinion but rather the Federal Funds Rate futures contract and the CME Group FedWatch Indicator. These tools have long been used to express the market’s views on the likelihood of changes in U.S. monetary policy. As of March 11, the indicator shows the probability of a March rate hike at 0%. The probability of a rate hike in ... (read more)