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News and Analysis

Posted: Wed Dec 21, 2016 11:04 am
by NewsAndAnalysis
CAD/JPY: short review and forecast

Since November, the rates of CAD/JPY is in the frames of the rapid upward trend. The Canadian dollar strengthened against the yen and in a very short time reached a high level 87-88 CAD, which had been reached before only in April 2016. Although likely, the rates are approaching the peak, and the rapid rise of the Canadian dollar, will be stopped as the US dollar, which has already passed the stage of rapid growth, breaking multi-year highs.

Why this trend has been formed in November? it's not difficult to know. It is not outstanding performance of the Canadian economy, though it shows enviable stability. The strengthening of the Canadian economy happened because of the strengthening of the U.S. dollar, the economy in the United States in General and increasing of the crude oil prices, which gives good preconditions for economic growth of Canada and the entire region. Japan's economy also demonstrates stability. The Bank of Japan gives good forecasts for GDP growth next year, but rising oil prices put pressure on Japan's economy and the value of the yen.

Oscillator MACD Stochastics indicate a good time for opening trades against the trend. When doing short term trading, it is the right decision. But according to forecasts, the yen won't strengthen against the U.S. dollar and other currencies. Therefore, the decreasing will be insignificant and the value of the yen will be approximately on the current level in the next few months.

Posted: Thu Dec 22, 2016 12:13 pm
by NewsAndAnalysis
Technical analysis of the currency pair EUR/USD on 22/12/2016. The daily chart

General analysis.
This week the currency pair EUR / USD has suspended its decline and has formed a minimum at the level of 1.0350, thereby updating the minimum of the price for the last 13 years. The price has broken down a very important support level 1.0550 on which all buyers had hoped so deeply. But the price has passed this mark and successfully fixed below the support 1.0550.

Break of 1.0550 has paved the way for the EUR / USD to decline to parity or even lower.

At the moment, we see a small correction against downward movement and the level of 1.0550 is likely to be tested again. But this time it will be resistance for the price and most likely we will see a resumption of selling from this level.

You can open the transaction to sell now but in this case we risk to enter for sale directly on the corrective upward movement.

The ideal case scenario will roll back the price to 1.0550 and rebound from it down

Stop-loss on sales should be determined depending of amount of your deposit and trading hours.
For intraday and weekly traders a good mark for SL will be the area above 1.0600.
Longer-term traders can place orders at 1.0680 and above.

Posted: Tue Dec 27, 2016 3:36 pm
by NewsAndAnalysis
Technical analysis of the currency pair USD / CHF on 27/12/2016. The daily chart

General analysis
Over the past seven trading days, the pair USD / CHF is moving sideways after the formation of peak at 1.0340. The price has been approached to resistance level 1.0340 for a third time but was never able to overcome it. Last time the price was in the area of the mark 1.0340 in November 2015 after which began a long sideways movement where we are today.

The prospect of breaking through the 1.0340 resistance for the pair USD / CHF is large enough.
We can see it on the fundamental data from America and Europe and by the help of technical analysis on the graph as well.

Most likely we will see two scenarios of further developments for USD / CHF:

Scenario #1
: Break of 1.0340 resistance and exit from the sideways movement.
In this scenario, the transaction to buy should be opened after the formation of the confirmation of the breakout with a few candles up.
The objectives of the profit will be levels 1.0430 and 1.0450.

Scenario #2: Rebound from 1.0340 and resistance and reduced within the side channel.
Now the price has suspended its growth near resistance 1.0340 and began to form a correctional movement.
In case of breaking the support level of 1.0180 the price is likely to continue to decline within channel and when this scenario, the sales will be relevant below the 1.0180 with target points of profit taking at 1.0085 and 09950.


Posted: Wed Dec 28, 2016 10:08 am
by NewsAndAnalysis
Crude oil (CL/WTI): review and forecast for the near month

Oil prices for the last few months were under the influence of the USD rates and events related with OPEC and making of the Agreement on reduction of the crude oil extraction. Implementation of Agreement should begin since January 2017, so the market is awaiting whether the Agreement will be executed by all countries-exporters. Investors remain optimistic for a while and the prices continues increasing. In particular, yesterday the price of oil reached a 17- month high.
In the near future, the prices can vary, depending on the implementation of the Agreement on reduction of oil extraction. In January, the market will be awaiting information about the volume of oil production, and only toward the end of the month investors will be able to draw certain conclusions. It's not cost to expect significant price spikes until this moment – probably the rates will be in the frames of the current uptrend. The price can reach the level of 55-56 per barrel for the Light sweet/WTI.
Oscillators MACD/Stochastics show a signal to open short deals, but at the moment, trading against the trend is not the best decision. It's be better to open the deals to BUY because there're no enough preconditions for a trend reversal and the prices have not reached yet the real maximum.

Posted: Thu Dec 29, 2016 2:14 pm
by NewsAndAnalysis
Analysis on the currency pair GBP / USD. Results of the year

General analysis.
In 2016 the currency pair GBP / USD was quite difficult.
In terms of important fundamental data was a lot of key decisions from the UK and United States as well. his may include «Brexsit», Trump's election victory, increasing of the FED interest rate and even the OPEC decision to cut oil production.

All these factors were a powerful catalyst for the pair GBP / USD and summing the dry residue we can said that the by the results of 2017 the currency pair GBP / USD has lost about 2300 points.

First, the decision to Brexsit pulled the price down hit quite a long channel for GBP / USD. Further gradual strengthening of the dollar has continued to reduce the price to record lows and now the price is trading at 1.2270.

The last two and a half years the pair is in the long-term downtrend and at the moment there are no preconditions to expect stop the decline.

Speaking about the prospects for 2017 it should be noted that much will depend on global economic factors. The first important factor is the implementation of the OPEC countries agreements. If all goes according to plan and production significantly reduced, we can expect a reduction scenario to continue.

Another important indicator will be the Fed's policy in terms of the rate increase. They promised next year to raise interest rates at least three times, which of course will continue to strengthen the dollar. However, they are unlikely to be addressed to increase the rate three times in one year.

Graph 1


Speaking about short and medium term at the moment on the graph, we see penetration of the price band downwards and fixing prices below the support level.

Given the general downward trend on GBP / USD and the presence of signals for sale we can confidently expect continuation of decrease in the medium term.

Now, there are all prerequisites for the so-called back-testing, from where the most profitable will be opened for sale.

Graph 2


Posted: Tue Jan 03, 2017 10:02 am
by NewsAndAnalysis
Technical analysis of the currency pair EUR/USD on 03/01/2017. The daily chart

General analysis.
Currency pair EUR / USD continues to move sideways during the whole last week.

It should be reminded that not so long time ago the price has broken through the major support level 1.0520 and the price successfully fixed below it. Then it was back testing of this support but in time of testing there was a sharp surge in activity therefore the price has risen almost to 1.0670 but then during the same day again fell below the 1.0520 support.
Considering the overall picture of the graph EUR / USD where we can emphasize a clear downward trend and the presence of such sell signals as: break through the price channel boundaries, back testing of it we can expect that further decline in this currency pair will continue.

Schedule Stochastic indicator turned inside the neutral zone and demonstrates the downward movement.

The following points to reduce the EUR will be the levels 1.0200 and 1.0180.
We recommend opening the deal to sell with the average lots and placing orders S / L above 1.0650.


Posted: Wed Jan 04, 2017 12:54 pm
by NewsAndAnalysis
USD/SEK – review and short term forecast.
At the moment, the market a calm due to New year's holidays. Market activity will be restored after completion of all holidays for at least a week. But by the end of the current week we expect important data from the US about the oil reserves, the unemployment level, which may slightly revive the market.
On the chart of the USD/SEK we can see that the rates are in the frames of the uptrend, but there are perspectives of a trend change. Since November, has forming a flat trend. The support line has shifted and now it's in the horizontal position. Also on the chart we can see a trend reversal figure, however, at the moment the preconditions for a trend reversal is not enough. On the one hand, USD has not yet reached its peak and may continue to grow and strengthen in the new year, on the other hand, there are no preconditions for the strengthening of the SEK. The growth course of the Sweden economy has slowed, but the Riksbank decided to leave the refinancing rate unchanged on a very low level.
Oscillator MACD shows a signal to open buy deals. This is the right decision upon medium-term trading.

Posted: Thu Jan 05, 2017 1:41 pm
by NewsAndAnalysis
Technical analysis of the currency pair EUR/СHF on 05/01/2017. The daily chart
General analysis
During the past two weeks the currency pair EUR / CHF continues to move sideways and has formed maximum at 30.12.16 – 1.0760. However, last trading week closed with a couple of black candlestick with a big body and it is contrary to growth opportunities.
The first trading days of the current week was held under the auspices of the bulls and now we can see a return to growth.
Price has not been able to go below support 1.0690 by forming a rebound from this level.
A few weeks ago the price has already been successfully beat off from support level 1.0690. After obtaining several signals from other tools and indicators we can confidently expect the beginning of growth.
Next few days
Currency pair EUR / CHF is already moving sideways for a long time and at the moment we have a lot of reasons to expect the test of the upper boundary of the channel at 1.0790. However, given the resistance level at 1.0750 there is the probability forming of the peak and further decreases to the bottom of support 1.0690.
After after overcoming of local maximum at 1.0750 we can consider to open a long deals with targert points by 1.0790.

Posted: Fri Jan 06, 2017 10:18 am
by NewsAndAnalysis
Analysis on the currency pair EUR/JPY
Today, all the world is waiting the jobs report from the USA after the Fed raised the interest rate in Dec 2016 for the second time after 12 months from the first one, and it’s expected that this report will effect on all symbols even EURJPY which we’ll analyze today.
The EURJPY currency pair is trading now around 123.00 key resistance area which is in the middle zone between 38.2 and 50% fibo from the correction wave which started after the Brexit so, it maybe raise to 125 and back to down again the medium term trend but in the short term we’re expecting that will touch the upper limit of the wedge and back again, but the SMA 50’s slope is horizontal that’s mean the pair don’t have the power to resume the movement.
The RSI and Stochastic indicators still giving us buy signs so we’ll wait for the sell signal to enter the market.
The Next Few Days
We can sell the pair when we see it around 123.50 and make our first target at 121.90 and if the pair broke the wedge we have to sell it again to 119.00, but on the other side if it broke it up we can buy it to 125.
We have to be careful from the Non-Farm report today from the USA at 13:30 GMT Especially when we listened one of the statements from the FOMC minutes on Wednesday was the possibility of unemployment undershooting the level at which the central bank believes it should settle at in the long term.


Re: News and Analysis

Posted: Wed Jul 12, 2017 2:38 pm
by SFX_Official
AUD/CAD: Fundamental Review & Forecast

The CAD continues strengthening against the AUD. Investors expect an increase of the interest rate today.

The rates of the AUD/CAD continue in the frames of a downtrend. Last month the Canadian dollar successfully withstood the pressure due to low oil prices and strengthened against the Australian dollar. The Australian dollar continued decreasing even after the positive statistics about the trade balance, although this did support the AUD for a few days. Last week the RBA refused to raise the interest rate. Despite the positive economic data, the RBA supposes that the goals of its stimulus program haven't been achieved yet. In particular, the RBA is concerned about the situation on the labour market.

This week we do not expect important information about the AUD. The only thing that can have an impact on the value of the AUD is information about the Chinese economy. As for the CAD, we expect important information. In particular, this evening investors expect a decision from the Bank of Canada regarding raising the interest rate. Given the recent information about the PMI index and positive reports about the employment market, investors are sure that the Bank of Canada will raise the interest rate by 25 pips - up to 0.75%, for the first time since 2010. Thus, Canada will become the first country after the United States to tighten its monetary policy amid the good economic situation in the country. Another reason for the further strengthening of the CA, is a growth in oil prices, which have increased due to information about a reduction in the reserves of WTI crude oil by 2.1 million barrels for a week in the main oil storage reservoir of the United States. In addition, it was reported that OPEC can limit the volume of oil extraction in Nigeria and Libya, which were free from obligations to reduce the volume of oil production with the current agreement.

In this situation, the optimal decision is to open the deals on the trend. The Stochastic oscillator also gives a signal for short deals indicating the rates in the overbought zone.