Can a pigeon beat a rat?
Posted: Wed Feb 01, 2023 3:36 pm
TheRumpledOne wrote:https://annieduke.substack.com/p/beaten-by-pigeons
kiwiarian wrote:TheRumpledOne wrote:https://annieduke.substack.com/p/beaten-by-pigeons
I was thinking about how this applies to trading and I guess if you took a buy, price can do one of 3 things, it can go up, it can go sideways, or it can go down, so you have 2/3 a chance of BE or in profit.
2-3-notlosemoney.png
Don_xyZ wrote:kiwiarian wrote:TheRumpledOne wrote:https://annieduke.substack.com/p/beaten-by-pigeons
I was thinking about how this applies to trading and I guess if you took a buy, price can do one of 3 things, it can go up, it can go sideways, or it can go down, so you have 2/3 a chance of BE or in profit.
2-3-notlosemoney.png
Actually 4, not 3.
Price never go sideways.
First off, price either go up or down.
And then, it's either by a lot or a little.
So the chances are:
go up a lot
go up a little
go down a lot
go down a little
The illusion that price goes sideways is because it's the element of time that goes sideways while the price is actually stuck in a small range of movement(s).
Adam Smith said economy is using as little resource to gain as much as you can. In other words, risk as little as you can and make as much profit as the market allow.
TRO's question is tricky.
There will be times when a rat will beat a pigeon and there will also be times when a pigeon will get the upper hand. If it's aerial combat, the pigeon will crush the rat but if you strip the flight advantage, like in a sewer or a maze or inside a building, the rat will win. Therefore, understand the battlefield and timing and then use the appropriate style to make the most profit.
Don_xyZ wrote:kiwiarian wrote:TheRumpledOne wrote:https://annieduke.substack.com/p/beaten-by-pigeons
I was thinking about how this applies to trading and I guess if you took a buy, price can do one of 3 things, it can go up, it can go sideways, or it can go down, so you have 2/3 a chance of BE or in profit.
2-3-notlosemoney.png
Actually 4, not 3.
Price never go sideways.
First off, price either go up or down.
And then, it's either by a lot or a little.
So the chances are:
go up a lot
go up a little
go down a lot
go down a little
The illusion that price goes sideways is because it's the element of time that goes sideways while the price is actually stuck in a small range of movement(s).
Adam Smith said economy is using as little resource to gain as much as you can. In other words, risk as little as you can and make as much profit as the market allow.
TRO's question is tricky.
There will be times when a rat will beat a pigeon and there will also be times when a pigeon will get the upper hand. If it's aerial combat, the pigeon will crush the rat but if you strip the flight advantage, like in a sewer or a maze or inside a building, the rat will win. Therefore, understand the battlefield and timing and then use the appropriate style to make the most profit.
Yirbu wrote:Don_xyZ wrote:kiwiarian wrote:I was thinking about how this applies to trading and I guess if you took a buy, price can do one of 3 things, it can go up, it can go sideways, or it can go down, so you have 2/3 a chance of BE or in profit.
2-3-notlosemoney.png
Actually 4, not 3.
Price never go sideways.
First off, price either go up or down.
And then, it's either by a lot or a little.
So the chances are:
go up a lot
go up a little
go down a lot
go down a little
The illusion that price goes sideways is because it's the element of time that goes sideways while the price is actually stuck in a small range of movement(s).
Adam Smith said economy is using as little resource to gain as much as you can. In other words, risk as little as you can and make as much profit as the market allow.
TRO's question is tricky.
There will be times when a rat will beat a pigeon and there will also be times when a pigeon will get the upper hand. If it's aerial combat, the pigeon will crush the rat but if you strip the flight advantage, like in a sewer or a maze or inside a building, the rat will win. Therefore, understand the battlefield and timing and then use the appropriate style to make the most profit.
So true, for me personally the trick is in understanding the battlefield. Yesterday I kept having loosing trades because I wasn't able to understand the battlefield. This is what happens to me ones in a while and I always am too late in realizing that I am in a situation I wil not win.
It has something to do with how price behaves, maybe the volatility I haven't figured it out yet. I will figure it out...soon
TheRumpledOne wrote:https://annieduke.substack.com/p/beaten-by-pigeons
BambinoFlex wrote:TheRumpledOne wrote:https://annieduke.substack.com/p/beaten-by-pigeons
Even though we are thinking about the entries, buy or sell, as the doors, I think exiting is the real focus
On Entry, I think a large majority of people will be presented with some sort of profit.
When in profit, let it be 1 pip, 2 pip or 20 pips….
1. Do you keep position Open
2. Do you Liquidate
3. Do you move stop to break even or let price reach target
In my experience, most people choose #1 or #3. If they switch and chose #2 (even partially closing) I think they will be more successful.
kiwiarian wrote:
Speaking of timecarry1.jpg