Taking off the blindfold
Posted: Thu Dec 20, 2018 11:41 am
Intro:
Well. So here I am. Lurker for a very long time. Been struggling for even longer. I don't know if the forum is still active, at least from time to time, but reading the thread from arkan1976 motivated me to create this thread. Also, a big thank you to TRO, MightyOne, Mr. Hyde, Mira, v8 (r.i.p.), es/pip, dragon33, and all of you who kept the forum going and gave so much knowledge asking nothing in return. Your posts and ideas motivated me to keep on trying.
I've been through the same cycle of interest, hope, effort, lack of improvement and hopelesness 4 times. Soon to be at year 4. Not profitable yet, but at least my mindset is in order and I don't make dumb mistakes anymore (thank you TRO for all your videos). The important thing is that I know why I'm failing.
So, the necessary evil. Time to look at myself in the mirror. The good and the bad.
It's not that I can't manage my risk, or that I'm not patient, or that I'm anxious. I can follow a method rigorously and I don't fear losing trades. It's not about that. I've lost count of how many methods I tried. But it's always the same result in the long run: barely breaking even.
The main reason I'm not profitable, is because I can't read price. I'm terrible at understanding price action. As of today, I don't get it. Airballing exits because I don't know what the market is telling me. It's like reading a book written in a foreign language. I can understand the letters (candlesticks) but I can't understand the words/sentences (context and the chart as a whole).
And it wasn't because I didn't put in the work; reading maybe more that was necessary which ended up being detrimental, watching videos, and hours and hours of screen time. I don't know how many hours and nights I've spent looking at charts, live and old. But I guess I was making the wrong observations or looking at the wrong things. Trying to find patterns, lines, shapes, support, resistance, trend, drawing more lines, trend lines, median lines, or something that would help me see why price was doing what it was doing. It was futile.
For every observation I wrote down in the chart, I could find another one that did the complete opposite.
"Oh, a pin bar is forming! That means price is being rejected, makes sense!" Then, in one scenario price reverses, and in the other one price keeps going in the same direction.
"This seems like a strong support level!" Then price absolutely obliterates that level and goes through it like a knife.
I was (and still am) spinning my wheels. I can't seem to be grasping the basics of why price does what it does. And I'm also at the point of information overload.
I believe this is one of those cases of "practice doesn't make perfect. Only perfect practice makes perfect". I don't believe my screen time was quality screen time. I don't want to say that all that time is gone to waste. Maybe it'll all come together. I don't know; time will tell.
But I'm not quitting this. I believe I just started with the wrong foot.
The Plan:
I'm going to do a "hard reset" and forget 99% of what I have read in the past.
But, to avoid being all over the place again, I'll keep 3 concepts that I found here which I think hold a lot of value:
1)
- The price breaks to new high's
- The price reverses from new high's
They happen regardless of time frame
They are phenomena that can be exploited without the fear if found out by others, that they might cease to exist.
2) If you can see loss then you can see profit. (Z-lines)
3) Body in the direction of profit, wick in the direction of loss; if price is closing higher than something then it is probably not going lower.
This isn't a trading journal per se, at least for now. It's going to be an effort to understand price, and why it moves from x to y. I'll be posting charts with observations, ploting a line here and there, and maybe some open questions, nothing more.
I know I will make mistakes, and very basic ones. So, if anyone wants to contribute, I'd be extremely grateful.
The blindfold has to come off eventually.
Well. So here I am. Lurker for a very long time. Been struggling for even longer. I don't know if the forum is still active, at least from time to time, but reading the thread from arkan1976 motivated me to create this thread. Also, a big thank you to TRO, MightyOne, Mr. Hyde, Mira, v8 (r.i.p.), es/pip, dragon33, and all of you who kept the forum going and gave so much knowledge asking nothing in return. Your posts and ideas motivated me to keep on trying.
I've been through the same cycle of interest, hope, effort, lack of improvement and hopelesness 4 times. Soon to be at year 4. Not profitable yet, but at least my mindset is in order and I don't make dumb mistakes anymore (thank you TRO for all your videos). The important thing is that I know why I'm failing.
So, the necessary evil. Time to look at myself in the mirror. The good and the bad.
It's not that I can't manage my risk, or that I'm not patient, or that I'm anxious. I can follow a method rigorously and I don't fear losing trades. It's not about that. I've lost count of how many methods I tried. But it's always the same result in the long run: barely breaking even.
The main reason I'm not profitable, is because I can't read price. I'm terrible at understanding price action. As of today, I don't get it. Airballing exits because I don't know what the market is telling me. It's like reading a book written in a foreign language. I can understand the letters (candlesticks) but I can't understand the words/sentences (context and the chart as a whole).
And it wasn't because I didn't put in the work; reading maybe more that was necessary which ended up being detrimental, watching videos, and hours and hours of screen time. I don't know how many hours and nights I've spent looking at charts, live and old. But I guess I was making the wrong observations or looking at the wrong things. Trying to find patterns, lines, shapes, support, resistance, trend, drawing more lines, trend lines, median lines, or something that would help me see why price was doing what it was doing. It was futile.
For every observation I wrote down in the chart, I could find another one that did the complete opposite.
"Oh, a pin bar is forming! That means price is being rejected, makes sense!" Then, in one scenario price reverses, and in the other one price keeps going in the same direction.
"This seems like a strong support level!" Then price absolutely obliterates that level and goes through it like a knife.
I was (and still am) spinning my wheels. I can't seem to be grasping the basics of why price does what it does. And I'm also at the point of information overload.
I believe this is one of those cases of "practice doesn't make perfect. Only perfect practice makes perfect". I don't believe my screen time was quality screen time. I don't want to say that all that time is gone to waste. Maybe it'll all come together. I don't know; time will tell.
But I'm not quitting this. I believe I just started with the wrong foot.
The Plan:
I'm going to do a "hard reset" and forget 99% of what I have read in the past.
But, to avoid being all over the place again, I'll keep 3 concepts that I found here which I think hold a lot of value:
1)
- The price breaks to new high's
- The price reverses from new high's
They happen regardless of time frame
They are phenomena that can be exploited without the fear if found out by others, that they might cease to exist.
2) If you can see loss then you can see profit. (Z-lines)
3) Body in the direction of profit, wick in the direction of loss; if price is closing higher than something then it is probably not going lower.
This isn't a trading journal per se, at least for now. It's going to be an effort to understand price, and why it moves from x to y. I'll be posting charts with observations, ploting a line here and there, and maybe some open questions, nothing more.
I know I will make mistakes, and very basic ones. So, if anyone wants to contribute, I'd be extremely grateful.
The blindfold has to come off eventually.