Kreslik.com - traders community since 2006

Hi,

sometimes I am asking myself this one question: do we really need indicator to trade? because we lose money with indicators on our chart and we lose money without indicators on our chart.

But sometimes I do enter trade where no indicator will give signal to enter the trade and I do make money. Those entries are based only on my feelings of what the market is doing and will do.

So the main question now is, shouldn't we be more receptive to our feelings than to our indicators? But I suppose also the feeling you can develop about market movement will grow with experience you got trading too. So will this be true that experienced traders trade more on feelings than on indicators?

I don't know if this could be true, but I am sure a part of it is. I do not have much experience at trading as some guru but on some period I do trade without even read what my indicators are telling me and when I start reading my indicators I start to lose.

Since every trader is trading with the same indicators, shouldn't we ask ourselves if the indicator is really our friend sometimes. Maybe they tell us to use it so that big players can manipulate us, make us sell where we should buy; and make us buy where we should sell. Is this a conspiracy to make us lose? Why 95% of us are losing money anyway?

Brokers say they make money when we make money, however they just watch us lose our entire balance without lifting a single finger. They pretend they can't interfere in client decision because of regulation; they do not offer signals, nor classes. But they didn't already say on the disclaimer that trading involve risk of loss?

Is Forex trading an investment or just a black hole that will eat every single dollar we put in?

So at least, should we trust our feelings or our indicators? When should we trust what we feel not the indicators, and when could we trust indicators over what we feel?

F$$$ indicators. But do u

Not all indicators are created equal.

TheRumpledOne wrote:Not all indicators are created equal.

Your indicators are like gauges to me, they either are showing what price is doing right now or there stats. I trust your indicators ever day

Feeling is a major part. The sooner you recognize that the market moves based on:

1. Psychological reaction.
2. Perception about Economic Events/News.
3. Oscillations (NOT TRENDS).

For example. A country may face a "terrorist threat." As a result, the perceived idea that a country may be attacked may cause their currency to fall. Even if that threat never occurs, or if it was a hoax.

The key thing to understand is: It doesn't matter if it happens or not, if people -believe- it may happen, that could cause a (adverse) market reaction - maybe to the same degree as if it actually did happen.

Much of the market moves not because of actual outcome of economic events, but reactions or perceptions/beliefs to those.

Therefore, measuring "feeling" is important.

The problem is, measuring "feeling" is an extremely difficult and a subjective exercise.

As for Indicators.

Indicators are all lagging. They are just information repackaged in a different way to make sense of what is happening and what has happened in a different way.

Indicators can be useful in terms of making a probability-based guess.

However, no indicator can tell the future. The market does not move only based on stats or patterns, but also random factors such as psychology and perception of economic events.

My general belief on this is, most markets will try to maintain a statistical consistency, until an event or a perception of one occurs.

This will cause the market price to disengage from stability to instability, i.e. range breakouts, breaking of S/R's, black swans etc.

For example: A USD interest rake hike, can instantly take an appreciating EURUSD straight down and probably break a couple of support lines on the way and "reset" the price.

I find in my experience, that Central Bank Policies and Economic/Political Events, tend to create a "reset" or "breaking" effect, coincidentally near major S/R lines. Interest Rate Hikes or Cuts being the "battering ram."

When this occurs, most statistical/price series based indicators become -useless-.

I have spent a great deal of time lately understanding fundamental analysis and the effects of NEWS, after developing a strong and stable quantitative technical based system. I have been investigating more thoroughly the fundamentals/news elements that also contribute to the randomness of the market.

News -does- have a major effect and neglecting news is not a wise idea.

Much of the "feeling" as you mentioned should be derived from how the mass perceive the news.

It is better in this case, to find a consensus (feeling) among big players as opposed to your own personal feelings.


-Xtreme

#descaboy Seems you have affiliate links in your signature

Trust them both. But most of the time, I trust my indicators.