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Do you double down?

Posted: Thu Mar 27, 2008 11:46 pm
by scottcap
I have two questions about using Buy Sell Zone.

1. If you are quick enough to get into a trade right after the new hour starts and you are stopped out of the trade should you double down in the reverse position, ie; initially gone long 1 contract, stop loss hit reenter 2 short positions. Or is better just to wait for the next hour to roll by before giving it another go. I would suspect that it probably is better to just wait for the new hour so as to avoid getting involved in what may become side way price movement, plus it give you a cooling off period. :-)

2. Should you enter into a trade only if it is going with the hourly trend.

Thanks in advance for any replies.

Scott

Additional questions

Posted: Fri Mar 28, 2008 5:07 am
by scottcap
Here are additional question.

If after the start of a new hour you pass taking the first trade signal, lets say it is a buy, and following a sell is hit do you take it or not?

Or, should you only take the first trade signal that is hit and forgot about taking any others until the start of the next hour?

Posted: Fri Mar 28, 2008 5:51 am
by eudamonia
Scottcap,

Craigaudio and I had a good discussion and analysis of doubling down after one loss. This may feel good psychologically but it makes not sense for your profits. You have the same winning % on the first trade as the second. So why should the second trade be at 2x the risk?

You could certainly take only the first setup of the hour. However, you will only catch clean breakout hours. I prefer to take the 1st setup in each direction each hour so that I can catch breakouts and reversals (but by limiting myself to 2 trades per hour I don't give preference to choppy hours.

On your second question again it depends on your objectives. Certainly you could filter out trades that are against the hourly trend, however, counter trend trades may also be profitable. What is your objective (are you just taking quick scalps or are you looking to ride your trades a bit)?

To answer your third question is tough without knowing what objectives you are looking at. Each setup is going to have approximately the winning % without knowing what context it is in.

I strongly suggest YOU spend some time with the BuyZone and see what works and what doesn't. Having me tell you these things (or anyone else) may not be as helpful.

Edward

Posted: Fri Mar 28, 2008 5:56 am
by scottcap
eudamonia wrote:Scottcap,

Craigaudio and I had a good discussion and analysis of doubling down after one loss. This may feel good psychologically but it makes not sense for your profits. You have the same winning % on the first trade as the second. So why should the second trade be at 2x the risk?

You could certainly take only the first setup of the hour. However, you will only catch clean breakout hours. I prefer to take the 1st setup in each direction each hour so that I can catch breakouts and reversals (but by limiting myself to 2 trades per hour I don't give preference to choppy hours.

On your second question again it depends on your objectives. Certainly you could filter out trades that are against the hourly trend, however, counter trend trades may also be profitable. What is your objective (are you just taking quick scalps or are you looking to ride your trades a bit)?

To answer your third question is tough without knowing what objectives you are looking at. Each setup is going to have approximately the winning % without knowing what context it is in.

I strongly suggest YOU spend some time with the BuyZone and see what works and what doesn't. Having me tell you these things (or anyone else) may not be as helpful.

Edward



Thank you kindly for your reply, it has been of help.

Scott