EURUSD - River Theory
Posted: Tue Mar 06, 2007 11:00 pm
As anticipated, price traded up to test the River Level at the 3132 (High was 3130). The supply here capped the topside today. Note that the River level is now at 3145 based on yesterday's volatility.
I remain overall bullish on this pair and continue to hold my longs into the current Transition Level. I am continuing to watch the 3063 level as indicated on the PDA for March on this pair. If we settle below this level I will exit my longs. Please take a look before making a plan to trade.
So what now?
Expect extreme volatility at the Transition Level as bulls and bears battle it out. Plan your risk with care and do not hesitate here. Your goal is to capture the directional flow away from this level as it will be the catalyst to our next strong move. The ECB rate announcement is on Thursday and this may add to indecision.
Aggressive short term traders can set up shorts on a move into the transition area at 3132. Risk should be above River at 3145 on an intraday basis. Targets for successful shorts are 3069, 3052, then 3007.
Longs can be established on a move through the Transition and River Level at 3145 with risk on a significant daily close back below 3132. Upside targets are 3220, 3242 and 3353.
As recommended yesterday, continue to focus on the 3132/45 area to indicate the next directional flow. A move above here is very bullish.
SHORT TERM NEUTRAL UNTIL THE 3145 RIVER LEVEL IS RESOLVED
I remain overall bullish on this pair and continue to hold my longs into the current Transition Level. I am continuing to watch the 3063 level as indicated on the PDA for March on this pair. If we settle below this level I will exit my longs. Please take a look before making a plan to trade.
So what now?
Expect extreme volatility at the Transition Level as bulls and bears battle it out. Plan your risk with care and do not hesitate here. Your goal is to capture the directional flow away from this level as it will be the catalyst to our next strong move. The ECB rate announcement is on Thursday and this may add to indecision.
Aggressive short term traders can set up shorts on a move into the transition area at 3132. Risk should be above River at 3145 on an intraday basis. Targets for successful shorts are 3069, 3052, then 3007.
Longs can be established on a move through the Transition and River Level at 3145 with risk on a significant daily close back below 3132. Upside targets are 3220, 3242 and 3353.
As recommended yesterday, continue to focus on the 3132/45 area to indicate the next directional flow. A move above here is very bullish.
SHORT TERM NEUTRAL UNTIL THE 3145 RIVER LEVEL IS RESOLVED