pika wrote:Relativity wrote:Here are some more interesting results. Very very surprising! Now do you see it? Hint : think about why the new rat rules actually work.
Relativity,
Your calculation method has one bias that gives the results as such, which is the sample size of the lower timeframes are much larger than that of the higher timeframes. e.g. Number of M1 bars over 3 months = 5x that of M5 bar sample = 15x that of M15 bar samples, and so on. Try standardizing the bar sample size for all the timeframes to the same number (e.g. 1000) and the results should be quite similar for all timeframes. Think about the "convolutions" (i.e. the bends and curves) in a lower timeframes that eventually forms the higher timeframes and you will better understand why the statistics turns out the way they are. I can only conclude that the higher transaction cost of trading is offset by the opportunity for higher trading frequency in a lower timeframe chart.
Please don't be mistaken that I am criticising your study. I am glad you are sharing your thoughts and I am just sharing mine since I have pondered over this area before some time ago when I wanted to understand why the ATR of different timeframes are not linearly related based on their time periods. If you may share your thoughts with more clarity, I would gladly learn from you if the evidence is sound.
Thanks Pika, you input is especially welcomed. I like to improve my accuracy of this study, so critism is useful. Honestly, I am no math wizard so I currently do not know any better method of sampling such data, other than using basic averages.
I have considered your approach previously : to use a fixed number of bars as the base for the sample size. I don't think this sampling approach is sound. The results did not defer too greatly, other than higher TFs. It was initially the approach I used when I first did the MT4 coding. The following problems were found :
1- If the number of bars is set too high, MT4 may not have the data available, especially for higher TFs. e.g. 500 bars for monthly bars. Even if the data is available, it might not be relevant enough as market conditions are different.
2- If the number of bars is set too low to accomandate higher TFs, the overall results can suffer lack of accuracy.
3- The lower TF bars relationship to the higher TF bars is questioned. Say we use 100 as our base. We consider 100 M1 bars and 100 M5 bars. But one must also consider the other 'outsider' 400 M1 bars since they have some relationship to the 100 M5 bars we are sampling. If understanding the relationship is essential, then it is just not consistent to exclude those 'outsider' 400 M1 bars.
Hence the choice to pick a duration as a sample e.g. 1 to 3 months for relevancy, accuracy and consistency.
I did found 2 problems with my current approach.
1- My current broker might not be providing enough bars for sampling, especially the lower TFs. This will skew the results, so I wrote something up to check the number of bars from all TFs available for sampling. There must be sufficent bars available to sample. Then from here, work out a proper duration to sample. Current now it stands at 1 month, unless I can find some other way to draw more data.
2- MT4 takes M10080 as number of mins in a week. But this isnt the case as 60 mins x 24 hours x 5 trading days = 7200. To get around this problem, weekly bars can be excluded from the study from this point. So say we extract 1 month worth of data, which means :
23 D1/M1440 bars (since we have around 23 trading days in a week)
23*6 = 138 H4/M240 bars
23*24 = 552 H1/M60 bars
23*48 = 1104 M30 bars
23*96 = 2208 M15 bars
23*288 = 6624 M5 bars
23*1440 = 33120 M1 bars