MEX INTEREST RATE March 25 2021
Posted: Thu Mar 25, 2021 6:35 pm
Country of release - Mexico
What does the data mean to the market? Higher interest rates are great for the value of the currency. Higher interest rates will create a BUY on MXN Pairs and vice versa.
Historic Deviations and Their Outcome
Nov 2020, Saw an 18 basis point (bps) hike from the average forecast, which created 546 pips in 1 min, which meant 30 pips per 1Bps!
+0.25 bps above the rounded forecast,
See charts→
https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/ ... 11-12;r=M1
Aug 2019, Saw a +25 bps hike from the average forecast, which was a lovely move!
See charts→
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.c ... TE1O3I9TTE.
Today’s Forecast
The forecast is 4%
Hi = 4.0
Low = 3.75
Avg = 3.93
Median = 4
16 out of 23 economists say there is no chance of a cut to the rate today. That's a 70% chance of no change.
Today’s Trade Plan
Hopefully, today if we see: -
-0.25 cut today would be 18 bps, so maybe expect 18x30=540 pips
+0.25 hike would be 32bps, so maybe expect 32x30= 960 pips
These are just estimates, though!
Tradable Pairs
USDMXN or EURMXN
What does the data mean to the market? Higher interest rates are great for the value of the currency. Higher interest rates will create a BUY on MXN Pairs and vice versa.
Historic Deviations and Their Outcome
Nov 2020, Saw an 18 basis point (bps) hike from the average forecast, which created 546 pips in 1 min, which meant 30 pips per 1Bps!
+0.25 bps above the rounded forecast,
See charts→
https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/ ... 11-12;r=M1
Aug 2019, Saw a +25 bps hike from the average forecast, which was a lovely move!
See charts→
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.c ... TE1O3I9TTE.
Today’s Forecast
The forecast is 4%
Hi = 4.0
Low = 3.75
Avg = 3.93
Median = 4
16 out of 23 economists say there is no chance of a cut to the rate today. That's a 70% chance of no change.
Today’s Trade Plan
Hopefully, today if we see: -
-0.25 cut today would be 18 bps, so maybe expect 18x30=540 pips
+0.25 hike would be 32bps, so maybe expect 32x30= 960 pips
These are just estimates, though!
Tradable Pairs
USDMXN or EURMXN