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Where are the fundamentals?

Posted: Wed Apr 23, 2008 4:15 am
by lady4x
I've realized in these days the importance of fundamentals in trading, but i've seen too much information everywhere and i just don't know what to see.

I surf around FxStreet, DailyFx, Bloomberg, etc. and i've seen so many reports, Economic Reports, Economic Calendars, Economic Indicatos, News, Market Data, Market View, Fundamental Reports, Etc. Do you see?

There are too many reports, each one with a lot of information and some of them repeat some things from the other, many things to see but in the end i see nothing... i start reading them, and ten minutes later i'm confused, at this time, after being a couple of weeks watching news and reports, i don't have the minimal idea of where the EUR/USD is going to.

Where can i find the better information, something like a resume of the fundamentals, something i can see the mid and long term trend with? (not only the economic calendar of events), something like the most important market movers in short, medium and long term?

Posted: Wed Apr 23, 2008 6:18 am
by jhtumblin
I would recommend that you study the Elliott Wave Theory versus trying to trade based on fundamentals. Here is the fact about fundamentals, you can't get the information that you need until it is too late. When I say that, I mean by the time you (aka the public) hears about what is actually going on in a market, the insiders have already made their plays, the move is virtually exhausted, and you are stuck buying at the top or selling near the bottom.

Now don't get me wrong, there are people who make money by riding the final aftershock, but I wouldn't believe they are very consistent, and they definitely aren't doing better than your average investor (not trader).

Another thing to note is that you definitely CAN NOT trade off the true fundamentals in the short term (day-trading). One of 2 things will happen, either you will lose to the big boys who have the information before you, or you will play it too conservative and never actually get a decent move in the market.

Some may disagree with my ideas on this one, however, I can almost guarantee that no one can give me an example of an independent trader, outside of the exchanges/banks who is making money based on fundamentals. This unfortunately, is because fundamentals don't exist for the public any more.

Posted: Wed Apr 23, 2008 8:38 pm
by eudamonia
I agree somewhat with your statement jhtumblin. You can't trade solely off the fundamentals unless you are a real LONG term trader. And even then you would be at a great disadvantage as the banks and other inside players hold all the cards and know what's happening before you do.

I do like combining a longer term fundamental bias with certain technical setups. If feel this can be a useful tool for longer term trading (ie. 4 hour bars and greater). I agree that it is of no value for the day trader who is looking at a 1-15 minute chart or the equivalent.

Just my 2 cents.

Edward

Posted: Wed Jul 14, 2010 11:30 am
by Gino_Romano
The market considers everything. All of the factors influencing the price of economic, political or psychological, is taken into account by the market and included in the price. So all that is required to predict stock prices and currencies in the forex market - is to study the price chart.
Price movement trends. Tendency or trend - a fundamental in technical analysis. Because the price movement trends derive two corollaries.

The first one: the current trend will continue and will not reverse itself. This result is nothing like the first paraphrase of Newton's law of motion.

The second one: the current trend will continue for as long as the movement doesn?t start in the opposite direction.

History repeats itself. It makes sense to apply the graphical models of price changes, based on analysis of historical data, since the price change reflects a fairly stable psychology of the market crowd. And if in the past, these models work, there is every reason to believe that in future they will work, because they are based on human psychology, which over the years does not change.
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