The ideas that I trade by:

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Mira
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Re: The ideas that I trade by:

Postby Mira » Sun Jan 15, 2017 11:23 am

MightyOne wrote:I just thought that this was interesting:

Do you ever get the feeling like you saw the price action somewhere before? It was probably a fractal pattern triggering your senses.

The problem with fractal patterns is that you have no idea how they are going to manifest.

fractal_patterns.png



:shock:

They are the same!! But everything always starts from the small and then eventually grows.. now it seems it's getting a bigger picture, or is it just an illusion?
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Re: The ideas that I trade by:

Postby Mira » Sun Jan 15, 2017 5:45 pm

Hi MO!

Please, how do i know how:

- how many lots are the money i have, risk and gain?
- how do i manage space if i enter, for say, at the black star instead of the extreme and i have to cut space? My position wouldn't be at the extreme anymore..
- How do i size my entries when price is moving in my direction?

Thank you for your time! :D

MO SW.gif
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Re: The ideas that I trade by:

Postby laksh » Sun Jan 15, 2017 7:29 pm

Mira wrote:Am I seeing.... about GU?



Be a bit careful with position sizing on GU (GBP Pairs) this week.. it entered political mode couple of days ago and may continue for sometime. Will be very spiky and Technical Analysis may get ripped.

As I write, GU touched 1.2010 now (GMT 7:28 PM) . Of course, move was of very low liquidity during market close hours, but bias was clear!

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Re: The ideas that I trade by:

Postby MightyOne » Sun Jan 15, 2017 9:45 pm

Mira wrote:Hi MO!

Please, how do i know how:

- how many lots are the money i have, risk and gain?
- how do i manage space if i enter, for say, at the black star instead of the extreme and i have to cut space? My position wouldn't be at the extreme anymore..
- How do i size my entries when price is moving in my direction?

Thank you for your time! :D

MO SW.gif


If you download the Eights indicator and you push the little 'C' button at the bottom left of the chart then it will tell you everything that you need to know.

I size the first entry around 0.1% per M5-H1 line and I follow the progression that I mentioned earlier: 1 + 1 + 1 + 1 + 1 + 1 + 2 + 2 + 3 + 4 + 5.
The stop stays the same until the 4th entry, at which point the total space is reduced by 25% per entry.

A 'line' is about 2% of the weekly median range of a pair and it is twice as wide (and position is half as large) for every chart that is larger than the previous (H1-H4-D-W-M)

You have so many lines, you risk so many lines, you make so many lines; it is as simple as that.

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Re: The ideas that I trade by:

Postby MightyOne » Sun Jan 15, 2017 10:37 pm

I used to trade almost exactly like dchappy trades now.

I am pretty sure that the arrows on the trade tracker meant that I was using gains from one contract to fund another...

The notes in blue is me practicing 'Ted Warren story telling' where you try to explain the psychology behind the price action.

Shortly after this chart, everyone got wise to the fact that Coffee was going to rise and volatility went through the roof. "They" moved prices down (yes they can) to absorb as many contracts as they could (at which point I liquidated everything and spent 96%+ of the account on Coffee Calls...because YOLO) :lol: If I remember correctly, they were about $0.10 out of the money; the strike was about where I went long prior to the decline.

It is all fun and games, but eventually poor money management reduces your epic wins to the level of someone who was trading smart, only they didn't risk blowing up their account.

No regrets, we get older and wiser until eventually we understand what Van Tharp is going on about.

blast_from_daPast.png

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Re: The ideas that I trade by:

Postby TheRumpledOne » Mon Jan 16, 2017 4:06 am

What's it say in blue? I can't see it.
IT'S NOT WHAT YOU TRADE, IT'S HOW YOU TRADE IT!

Please do NOT PM me with trading or coding questions, post them in a thread.

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Re: The ideas that I trade by:

Postby Mira » Mon Jan 16, 2017 11:51 am

MightyOne wrote: You have so many lines, you risk so many lines, you make so many lines; it is as simple as that.


Ok now I get what is "normalizing risk"! Thanks

I think I just need to try to fully get how this works but, if I'm not wrong, the more I buy and the more chances to make profits at the same risk, trailing stop.
This is why you said that price doesn't need to move! :D

I'll not bother you over so I'm making my last question before I try it:

- what would you suggest to do if you still didn't reach the 2.2% target and you are moving from, i.e., a long to a short? Start again at 0.1% or take the lines gained and start from where you left (with normalized risk)?

Thank you MO!
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Re: The ideas that I trade by:

Postby Mira » Mon Jan 16, 2017 1:40 pm

laksh wrote:
Mira wrote:Am I seeing.... about GU?



Be a bit careful with position sizing on GU (GBP Pairs) this week.. it entered political mode couple of days ago and may continue for sometime. Will be very spiky and Technical Analysis may get ripped.

As I write, GU touched 1.2010 now (GMT 7:28 PM) . Of course, move was of very low liquidity during market close hours, but bias was clear!



I saw the gap this morning :shock:
Thank you laksh!
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Mira
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Re: The ideas that I trade by:

Postby Mira » Mon Jan 16, 2017 2:07 pm

MightyOne wrote:I used to trade almost exactly like dchappy trades now.

I am pretty sure that the arrows on the trade tracker meant that I was using gains from one contract to fund another...

The notes in blue is me practicing 'Ted Warren story telling' where you try to explain the psychology behind the price action.

Shortly after this chart, everyone got wise to the fact that Coffee was going to rise and volatility went through the roof. "They" moved prices down (yes they can) to absorb as many contracts as they could (at which point I liquidated everything and spent 96%+ of the account on Coffee Calls...because YOLO) :lol: If I remember correctly, they were about $0.10 out of the money; the strike was about where I went long prior to the decline.

It is all fun and games, but eventually poor money management reduces your epic wins to the level of someone who was trading smart, only they didn't risk blowing up their account.

No regrets, we get older and wiser until eventually we understand what Van Tharp is going on about.

blast_from_daPast.png



You were draining the banks in 2002 too! :shock:
Was that Coffee @50 PUT hedging the future contract (Dec -2002 coffee)?
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Re: The ideas that I trade by:

Postby jscar » Mon Jan 16, 2017 3:00 pm

I don't know how much interest there is in it, but I promised the logic to the adaptive trail stuff that I posted a couple of pages ago. So here goes...

The idea was to have the trail look back a certain number of bars based on how fast the market is moving. To calculate the number of bars, I needed something that reflects the movement, but is not open-ended. So i figured that it would have to be some sort of oscillator.

I tried various oscillators, but none quite fit. Chanda Momentum Oscillator, Williams %R, DeMarker, etc, all had shortcomings. I'm sure my solution does too, but I liked it best. Basically, I constructed my own oscillator out of the RT indicator from our old friend Signal Bender (circa 2011).

The elements of RT:
Up = current close - previous low
Down = previous high - current close

Looking back, I add up each of these over some number of bars (I currently use 9). If the sum is <0, set it =0.
Numerator is the result for Up. Denominator is Up + Down.
Result is [SumUp/(SumUp + SumDown)].

This gives a value from 0 to 1. I double it and subtract 1, so that I get a result from -1 to +1. The nearer to the extremes, the stronger the move (see the red ovals in the chart below).

If the result is <0, for the up trail I use 0 and I use the -result for the down trail. If the result is >0, I use the result for the up trail and 0 for the down trail.
Up => if result < 0, modres = 0, else modres = result
Down => if result > 0, modres = 0, else modres = -result

I have 2 inputs for the minimum and maximum number of bars to look back. Mine are set for 8 bars and 34 bars. Then I use the oscillator result as a percentage to interpolate between the min and max.
diff = max - min
adder = ceiling(diff * (1 - modres))
lookback = min + adder.

So if [modified result, modres] is near 1, adder will be small and [lookback] is near the min (8). If [modres] is near 0, adder will be large and [lookback] is near the max (34). To trail down, I use the high [lookback] bars ago. To trail up, I use the low [lookback] bars ago. That's it.

I also have mine set up so that I can use higher time frames for the calculations. Useful for keeping an eye on what matters while looking at small charts. Also, note that I calculate this with previous bars (not the current bar), so the value does not change while a bar is still live.

I find this tool makes it easy to eyeball a good location to trail a stop. Along with the midpoint tools I have shown (lines and dashboard), it is all I have on my charts. Though on smaller charts I will often also put a higher time frame CC.


Image

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