Scalping: 3LZZ DSR

[Jhx]

Today was better. But still need more trades to fix yesterday's session lol.

2 Losers for-1R each (plan was to look for an exit at -70% but the candle just went through and hit the stop, maybe I should just exit if the sudden candle against is strong).
2 BE (0.1R). These are 'technically' winners but I'll keep my own log to have my own stats; otherwise the winrate might look skewed.
2 Winners for 1.5R each.

One of those BE trades went to a strong resistance level. I stayed in the trade because stop was already at BE and wanted to see if it broke, but it didn't.

Blew through the Max Stop:

GU_08162022_1.png (176.03 KiB) Viewed 1460 times

This one's a bit different but I saw price finally breaking through (and I could see it as a continuation if I see them as larger moves), so I took the entry when it came back on the M1 wick. Almost moved the TP from 2.5R to 2R but missed and got out at 1.5R.

GU_08162022_2.png (182.25 KiB) Viewed 1460 times

Attempted to get the next continuation out of that but failed (protecting it to BE worked as it then moved to the stop):

GU_08162022_3.png (177.95 KiB) Viewed 1460 times

I saw price in a range, moving up from the lower line and took the break. Exited at 1.5R when it got there because it was near the top.

GU_08162022_4.png (202.72 KiB) Viewed 1460 times

And another BE.

GU_08162022_5.png (163.88 KiB) Viewed 1460 times

I accidentally deleted some lines, but the setups are there.

[Jhx]

Moving the stop to BE on these scalps feels better to me. I don't know how much of this is just trading psychology vs 'better' decisions. Maybe it's detrimental to the trade's performance, but it does feel nice reducing risk for a potential of getting more.

These trades often go for more than 1R, and since I'm scalping and not holding for larger targets (unless I see a nearby area where it might turn), trailing it this way makes sense.

Goal starting tomorrow is to do a better job to reduce the average loss; I have the tools for that I think, I just have to implement them.

---

There's one small caveat to the trades now, but it's more related to MyFF. The spreads are good, but sometimes the get a bit spiky and go from 3 to 8 back to 3 (FTMO seemed a bit more consistent), and a decent bunch of my trades to really have tight stops (2ish pips sometimes). I could either widen my stop on those but could skew my stats, so I might have to pass on them, I'll have to see.

[Jhx]

1 BE, 1 missed trade because I don't know why I missed it, and 1 W to almost 1R. So with that and the BE (which is about 0.1R) it was 1R give or take.

I think I made some good findings that may help me simplify stuff .

And other fluff; I could also adjust something in the overlay indicator to not overlap with each other. With the overlays, overlays wicks, them overlapping, M1 candlesticks, and my lines it was getting really cluttered, specially when the PA was a bit ranging. I now switched to bar charts with the overlays and it really helps me see it better (I wish I could remove the open off the bar chart as I'm only using the highs and lows for stops, but MT4 doesn't allow for that and I need MT4 for these scalps).

[Jhx]

Not really relevant to the thread itself but this is how I tweaked the chart to see it better.
At first glance it might look odd but M1 candlestick bodies are more of a clutter since I'm more interested in the M5 bodies; M1 candles are mostly for highs and lows and stop placement. They make it easier for me to spot the swings.

CandleChart.png (127.03 KiB) Viewed 1380 times

Now:

BarChart.png (121.17 KiB) Viewed 1380 times

[Jhx]

Anyway, here are the trades, and the context. There was a really good short move that happened before my session. Overall, my session was a ranging session. But I think I noticed some things today:

1) Whether trending or ranging it's ok to take the trade as long as there is room to take some profit. I need to look for 'barriers' where price might stop. These barriers could be tops and bottoms of swings, lines where priced failed to close over (S/R?), and zlines.
2) I need to also be aware of those lines if they are outside the scope of my screen chart , so before the session starts I'll go to H1 and get any relevant levels off that (that should be enough to cover my session's moves).
3) If I'm scalping and price is near any of those areas, I can just exit at those levels. If there are no barriers, then I can trail the stop to see what I can get.

The long trade was a good example of that. I noticed there was a 'barrier' (to my eyes at least), so I protected the trade and see if it'd go through. It didn't and reversed, but at least I didn't get a loss. After pulling back down, it finally broke and went up until the magenta zline. But there were no entries for me to get in that run as it just shot up and never made a pullback

4) Taking trades that have a -very- tight stop (tight enough that a spike in the spread can take me out) means I can't make use of my stats to cut a losing trade earlier (around -70% ish), so I'm going to take trades where I have some room to work with the SL. This will also help me build my waiting game and fight my FOMO on momentum candles.

From now on I'm going to only draw the lines when the setup is forming to avoid too much clutter.
BO lines are dotted when the next pullback went through it, and solid when the pullback failed to go through.

GU_08172022_Context.png (207.85 KiB) Viewed 1374 times

GU_08172022.png (184.36 KiB) Viewed 1374 times

[aliassmith]

When studying data for manual trading there is a point where a rabbit hole appears and you keep tunneling to no where. As humans we try to create a senerio where our data fits perfectly. This natural process is "Curve Fitting". It seems logical but in the end the financial data is created through various standard deviations. You can see this through Montecarlo simulations of your data.

The data is a good reference but remember a reference is only what it is and not an exact laser guided map.

[Jhx]

When studying data for manual trading there is a point where a rabbit hole appears and you keep tunneling to no where. As humans we try to create a senerio where our data fits perfectly. This natural process is "Curve Fitting". It seems logical but in the end the financial data is created through various standard deviations. You can see this through Montecarlo simulations of your data.

The data is a good reference but remember a reference is only what it is and not an exact laser guided map.

Yeah, I have gone in and out of the rabbit hole more times than I wanted by now . When gathering stats for my trades I was hesitant to add or remove stuff from the list because I didn't know what would be useful and what wouldn't, to be fair I'm probably gathering more stats than I need .

But I agree there's a point where it becomes a useless dead-end, because there's no one-size-fits-all. This last happened when I was looking into my trailing stops, but concluded there's no way to pick a 'better' trailing stop without curve fitting. Decided, instead, to just trail it like this (moving up a distance of 0.5R every 0.5R after moving to BE) and let the market decide my luck.

This is why I asked in one of my previous posts how much of trade management is related to psychology vs actually better actions (performance-wise).

[aliassmith]

When studying data for manual trading there is a point where a rabbit hole appears and you keep tunneling to no where. As humans we try to create a senerio where our data fits perfectly. This natural process is "Curve Fitting". It seems logical but in the end the financial data is created through various standard deviations. You can see this through Montecarlo simulations of your data.

The data is a good reference but remember a reference is only what it is and not an exact laser guided map.

Yeah, I have gone in and out of the rabbit hole more times than I wanted by now . When gathering stats for my trades I was hesitant to add or remove stuff from the list because I didn't know what would be useful and what wouldn't, to be fair I'm probably gathering more stats than I need .

But I agree there's a point where it becomes a useless dead-end, because there's no one-size-fits-all. This last happened when I was looking into my trailing stops, but concluded there's no way to pick a 'better' trailing stop without curve fitting. Decided, instead, to just trail it like this (moving up a distance of 0.5R every 0.5R after moving to BE) and let the market decide my luck.

This is why I asked in one of my previous posts how much of trade management is related to psychology vs actually better actions (performance-wise).

There are many paths. There are even less paths that fit you. For sure there isn't one size fits all.

There is a lot of mental that is involved.

As I pointed out before specializing in 1 edge is best chance of success mentally and with outcome.

[Jhx]

When studying data for manual trading there is a point where a rabbit hole appears and you keep tunneling to no where. As humans we try to create a senerio where our data fits perfectly. This natural process is "Curve Fitting". It seems logical but in the end the financial data is created through various standard deviations. You can see this through Montecarlo simulations of your data.

The data is a good reference but remember a reference is only what it is and not an exact laser guided map.

Yeah, I have gone in and out of the rabbit hole more times than I wanted by now . When gathering stats for my trades I was hesitant to add or remove stuff from the list because I didn't know what would be useful and what wouldn't, to be fair I'm probably gathering more stats than I need .

But I agree there's a point where it becomes a useless dead-end, because there's no one-size-fits-all. This last happened when I was looking into my trailing stops, but concluded there's no way to pick a 'better' trailing stop without curve fitting. Decided, instead, to just trail it like this (moving up a distance of 0.5R every 0.5R after moving to BE) and let the market decide my luck.

This is why I asked in one of my previous posts how much of trade management is related to psychology vs actually better actions (performance-wise).

There are many paths. There are even less paths that fit you. For sure there isn't one size fits all.

There is a lot of mental that is involved.

As I pointed out before specializing in 1 edge is best chance of success mentally and with outcome.

So far this is the most dedicated I've been with a method, both in terms of sitting my a$$ every day of the week for 5 hours and then some more time logging everything to my journal. Well I don't really know if it's a method in itself because this whole thing just came up off Don's posts and merged it with the deadhorse's SMA, though I have my checklist for entering so there's that.

Never thought too much about edge other than the thing that gives you an advantage over the house .

In your opinion, what does an edge consist of? Is it an event in particular that one tries to take advantage of, or is it the strategy as a whole (entry method and trade management)? I might've seen the words method, edge, strategy, and system used interchangeably by some people in the past, but I'm pretty sure they represent different things.

[aliassmith]

Yeah, I have gone in and out of the rabbit hole more times than I wanted by now . When gathering stats for my trades I was hesitant to add or remove stuff from the list because I didn't know what would be useful and what wouldn't, to be fair I'm probably gathering more stats than I need .

But I agree there's a point where it becomes a useless dead-end, because there's no one-size-fits-all. This last happened when I was looking into my trailing stops, but concluded there's no way to pick a 'better' trailing stop without curve fitting. Decided, instead, to just trail it like this (moving up a distance of 0.5R every 0.5R after moving to BE) and let the market decide my luck.

This is why I asked in one of my previous posts how much of trade management is related to psychology vs actually better actions (performance-wise).

There are many paths. There are even less paths that fit you. For sure there isn't one size fits all.

There is a lot of mental that is involved.

As I pointed out before specializing in 1 edge is best chance of success mentally and with outcome.

So far this is the most dedicated I've been with a method, both in terms of sitting my a$$ every day of the week for 5 hours and then some more time logging everything to my journal. Well I don't really know if it's a method in itself because this whole thing just came up off Don's posts and merged it with the deadhorse's SMA, though I have my checklist for entering so there's that.

Never thought too much about edge other than the thing that gives you an advantage over the house .

In your opinion, what does an edge consist of? Is it an event in particular that one tries to take advantage of, or is it the strategy as a whole (entry method and trade management)? I might've seen the words method, edge, strategy, and system used interchangeably by some people in the past, but I'm pretty sure they represent different things.

Edge is created through biases and execution.