Never Lose Again

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Re: Never Lose Again

Postby BambinoFlex » Wed Dec 29, 2021 5:36 am

TheRumpledOne wrote:
BambinoFlex wrote:
This is what I see, but my view is limited since there are other variables at play. What if price activates and retraces below previous high? Do you re-enter?


Why wouldn't you re-enter?

Why would you re-enter?


I wouldn't re enter at the break of the high because the losses might add up for the day. Meaning that price would kiss/cross the prev high only to return back into the wick zone either hitting a stop loss, or never returning back to break past that high for the day.

I would re enter because I want to make sure I make the most of "edge" and after 100 days, come out with a profit.

The unknown variable is: How many times in the last 57 days has price reverted back into the wick zone BEFORE closing greater than the previous high. I've seen it happen back when I was trading the wick zone with the previous high as the entry line. I just can't say how often.
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Re: Never Lose Again

Postby TheRumpledOne » Wed Dec 29, 2021 1:52 pm

The analyzer can test for open below pivot and high above pivot, too. HINT!
IT'S NOT WHAT YOU TRADE, IT'S HOW YOU TRADE IT!

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Re: Never Lose Again

Postby BambinoFlex » Wed Dec 29, 2021 2:33 pm

TheRumpledOne wrote:The analyzer can test for open below pivot and high above pivot, too. HINT!


Ah! Yes, adding the Open above/below pivot then filtering breaks of previous high/low, give a similar, yet different story. The story is, price is more likely to make a new high greater than prev high if open is above pivot and a new low less than previous low if open is below pivot.

30 days out of the 44 with an open above pivot break previous high.

37 days out of the 56 with an open below pivot break previous low.

Closing filter added as well.
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Re: Never Lose Again

Postby TheRumpledOne » Wed Dec 29, 2021 2:54 pm

BambinoFlex wrote:
TheRumpledOne wrote:The analyzer can test for open below pivot and high above pivot, too. HINT!


Ah! Yes, adding the Open above/below pivot then filtering breaks of previous high/low, give a similar, yet different story. The story is, price is more likely to make a new high greater than prev high if open is above pivot and a new low less than previous low if open is below pivot.

30 days out of the 44 with an open above pivot break previous high.

37 days out of the 56 with an open below pivot break previous low.

Closing filter added as well.


You need to set the myFilter input to FALSE on HIGH GT PREVHIGH to get the percentage.
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Re: Never Lose Again

Postby BambinoFlex » Wed Dec 29, 2021 10:50 pm

I didn't do it continue your original post showing the close. That's what I wrote it out.

---

I saw your video today and you mentioned using the price analyzer to run the distance from R1 and S1. I've done something similar in the past, using the open and pivot running the FreqDist. It showed that the smaller the the distance, the greater the chance the line will be crossed.

I need to rewatch what you asked but can you share more of your idea? Maybe I've already done it and internalized it.
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Re:

Postby TheRumpledOne » Thu Dec 30, 2021 8:30 pm

TheRumpledOne wrote:http://www.forex.nawigator.biz/dyskusje/viewtopic.php?t=8192

Gracze intraday to frajerzy? Załączam wyliczenia matematyczne z książki po angielsku, że lepiej grać raz na dzień - swing trading.

EVENING THE ODDS
Trading can be difficult, and in an effort to make it easier, some traders
resort to taking very quick exits. "It's hard to earn 100 pips," goes the
rationale, "I'll just try to make 10 pips on each trade." It seems to make
sense; surely, it is easier to earn 10 pips than it is to earn 50 or 100 pips.
The trader seeks to win by playing it safe, which would seem to be a commendable
trait in the trading world.

TAKE CONTROL OF YOUR TRADING DESTINY
What if I told you that instead of making things easier, this trader is in
fact making his life more difficult? In order to understand why, we need to
delve a little deeper into game theory.

THE HOUSE HAS THE EDGE

Imagine a roulette wheel in a casino. You walk up to the table and place a
bet on either red or black. What are your chances of success?
If you've never played roulette, you might think the odds are 50?50.
After all, half of the numbered pockets are red, and the other half are black,
right?
Wrong. In addition to the red and black pockets, there is at least one
pocket that is neither red nor black. This "zero" pocket tilts the odds
slightly against our player.
In European roulette there is only one zero pocket, giving the house a
slight advantage. On this table, the odds are about 53:47 against our player.
American roulette wheels have two 0s, zero and double zero, and this increases
the house advantage to about 5.3 percent. This further stacks the
odds against our player, reducing his chances for success.
In the world of forex trading, the zero pockets represent the spread.
The odds are always going to be at least slightly in favor of the "house,"
which in this case is the market maker. The wider the spread, the more
"zero pockets" the trader must overcome. Just as each additional zero
pocket lowers the roulette player's chances of success, every additional
pip in the spread lessens the trader's chances of success.

MAKE THE PLAYING FIELD BIGGER

In the forex market, the house determines the spread, which is the equivalent
of the "zero pockets" in roulette. We have no control over the
spread?it is determined by the market maker alone, just as the casino
determines the number of zero pockets on a roulette wheel.
Ah, but what if we could control the number of red pockets and black
pockets? Suppose we were to greatly increase the number of red and black
pockets on the roulette wheel, and at the same time keep the number of
zero pockets steady.
What effect would this have on the odds? The odds of winning at
roulette would improve, because the zero pockets wouldmake up a smaller
percentage of the potential outcomes.
As long as there are zero pockets on the wheel, the odds will never be
in our favor. But by adding additional red and black pockets to the wheel,
The Forex Playing Field
we would lessen the casino's advantage and push the odds closer to 50?50.
The more red and black pockets we add, the better our chances become. In
a sense, we would be making the wheel?which is in this case the "playing
field"?bigger.
Of course, we can't add pockets to a roulette wheel. Casinos are too
smart to allow us to dilute their edge. While that edge is not overwhelming,
it is enough to guarantee that the casino will win more often than they will
lose, over a large enough sample of spins.
But in the world of forex trading, we can increase the size of the playing
field, and thereby improve our chances of trading success. And unlike
in a casino, we will not be forcefully removed from the premises for doing
so!
How is this done? We make the playing field larger by using wider exits
and stops, by using longer time frames, and by trying for larger gains.
You've seen the techniques outlined in this book, so let me ask you this:
Am I ever shooting for a 10-pip gain?

BUT THE OTHER TRADING INSTRUCTOR
SAID. . .

No, but I know that many traders are seeking exactly that. In fact, some
prominent trading instructors are teaching their students to seek only a
small 10- or 15-pip gain before exiting the trade. What is their motivation
for teaching people to trade this way?
Well, perhaps your "trading coach" has asked you to open an account
at a particular broker or market maker. If so, you may have signed an "introducing
broker" waiver that allows said trading coach to collect a small
cash payment every time you place a trade. This is his reward for introducing
you to the market maker.
If you place just a few trades, your trading coach collects just a little
money, but if you place many trades, the instructor will be handsomely
rewarded. So, it's in the trading coach's best interest (and the market
maker's best interest) to have you placing many trades, even though it may
not be in your best interest. Think about that the next time a so-called
trading instructor tries to convince you to shoot for 10 or 15 pips per trade.

LET'S DO THE MATH

What are the odds of success on a trade with a small target? The following
example should give the short-term trader an idea of exactly what it is he
or she is up against.

TAKE CONTROL OF YOUR TRADING DESTINY

Let's assume for the purpose of this example that we are trading a currency
pair that has a 3-pip spread, since a spread of that size is very common
in the forex market.
Our trader just wants to gain 10 pips. That should be easy, right? It's
understood that the trader will lose the spread (3 pips) upon entering the
trade. So, in order to turn a profit of 10 pips, the trader actually needs the
exchange rate to move 13 pips in his or her favor:
10 + 3 = 13
Now that we know what is required to create a winning trade, let's see
what would have to happen to create an equivalent loss. This is how we
will determine the odds of success or failure.
In order to generate a loss of 10 pips, the trader would only need an
adverse move of 7 pips. This is because a loss of 3 pips is incurred immediately
upon entering the trade, again due to the 3-pip spread.
10 − 3 = 7
We've determined that our trader needs a positive move of 13 pips to
gain 10 pips, but an adverse move of just 7 pips will result in an equivalent
loss of 10 pips. The "raw odds" of 10-pip win versus a 10-pip loss for this
trade can be expressed as:
13/7 = 1.857 : 1
The odds of success in this case are 1.857:1, or nearly 2:1 against. That's
a real eye-opener, isn't it? Now you know why it's so difficult to make
money trading for small gains?the playing field is too small! This is the
equivalent of betting "red" on the roulette wheel, when nearly two-thirds of
the pockets are either black or zero pockets.
We can certainly improve the odds of any trade by using good strategies
and solid risk management, but it's hard to see how an individual can
overcome these initial "raw" odds on a consistent basis. If you've tried to
trade this way and failed, now you know why. You're making the market
maker rich, and you might be making an introducing broker rich, but
chances are you are one of the many forex traders who lose money.

CHANGING THE EQUATION

How can we rearrange the odds so that we can have a better chance to win
at forex trading? How can we level the playing field? By making the playing
field larger. You see, if we are aiming for larger gains, the spread becomes
The Forex Playing Field 219
a less significant portion of the trade. It's the same as adding more black
and red pockets to the roulette wheel; unlike roulette, we can choose the
size of the playing field in forex trading.
Let's review the earlier trading situation, only this time we'll make the
playing field larger. Once again, we'll assume a spread of 3 pips, only this
time the trader will be trying to gain 100 pips instead of just 10 pips. In
order to turn a profit of 100 pips, the trader actually needs the exchange
rate to move 103 pips in his or her favor:
100 + 3 = 103
In order to generate a loss of 100 pips, the trader would only need an
adverse move of only 97 pips. This is because a loss of 3 pips is incurred
immediately upon entering the trade.
100 − 3 = 97
We've determined that the trader needs a positive move of 103 pips to
gain 100 pips, but an adverse move of just 97 pips will result in a loss of 100
pips. The "raw odds" of 100-pip win versus a 100-pip loss for this trade can
be expressed as:
103/97 = 1.06 : 1
The odds are now much better, as they are closer to 50?50. As we said
earlier, as long as there is a spread, the odds at the beginning of every trade
will be less than 50?50. However, if we are using good trading techniques
and risk management, or if we are collecting interest on the trade, we can
overcome these slightly negative odds.
Now I'm not saying that you have to shoot for gains of 100 pips or
more on every trade. The point is to understand that when the playing field
is larger in forex trading, the odds of success improve considerably. Also,
traders who are aiming for greater gains tend to hold their trades longer,
and consequently they enter trades (and pay the spread) less frequently.
Your market maker and your introducing broker may love you less,
but your account balance will appreciate it. In the end, you are the only
one who either enjoys the gains or suffers the losses in your account.

WHY DOESN'T EVERYONE DO IT?

So why doesn't everybody trade for larger gains? Why do so many traders
fall into the trap of trading against staggering odds? There are a couple of

220 TAKE CONTROL OF YOUR TRADING DESTINY

possible answers:
1. They don't understand that they are stacking the odds against themselves.
2. They have harmful preconceived notions about the nature of trading
itself.
The problem is that trading isn't always what we believe it to be, or
wish it were. I know exactly what I would like trading to be, and here it
is: I'd wake up in the morning, trade for an hour, make a ton of money,
close my positions, and do whatever I please for the rest of the day. Trading
would be like a video game that we could play anytime we please. Themore
we play the game, the more points we score. We could be rich beyond our
wildest dreams, with minimal effort.
That would be ideal in my opinion, but you may have noticed that these
strategies do not allow for this. That's because strategies need to work
in the real trading world, not in some fantasy world of our dreams. The
problem is that many traders don't know that their misconceptions about
trading are not based on facts. They are trading a market that exists in their
dreams, not in reality.

HUGE GAINS WITH MINIMAL EFFORT!

How do we acquire counterproductive attitudes toward trading? My guess
is the worst culprits are infomercials that tout huge gains in just minutes
a day. You may have seen these long-form commercials, often designed to
appear as legitimate television shows, where wide-eyed investors proudly
proclaim that they made huge gains with minimal effort.
Huge gains with minimal effort.
It sounds good, and that is no coincidence. You are being told exactly
what you want to hear. Instead of telling you what you'd like to hear, I'm
going to tell you the truth?trading is hard work. Short-term traders are
stacking the odds against themselves. There is no such thing as a huge gain
with minimal effort.
When I explained that we need to make the playing field larger, and
thereby hold our trades longer, this was probably not what you wanted to
hear. Why is that? Because we want huge gains with minimal effort.
Why are the airwaves filled with promises of huge gains with minimal
effort? Because salesmen know exactly what you want to hear, and they
know how to get you to write a big check. Whenever someone tells you
The Forex Playing Field 221
exactly what you want to hear, run in the other direction as quickly as
possible.

WHAT WE CAN LEARN FROM THE "SMART
MONEY"

Think about the way so-called "smart money" approaches trading in this
market. Do hedge funds and institutional traders chase after 10- or 15-pip
gains? Of course not?they understand the dynamics that are at work here.
Not only are they not interested in 10-pip gains, they're not chasing after
100-pip gains either. Many of these "big fish" are only satisfied with gains of
thousands of pips?trades that push the odds of success as close to 50?50
as possible.
Not only do the institutional traders understand the value of playing
on a larger field, they set up their trades so that they can collect interest
to boot?thereby increasing their odds to better than 50?50! If this were
a casino, they'd be tossed out immediately. Now you know why they are
called the "smart money"!


Memories
IT'S NOT WHAT YOU TRADE, IT'S HOW YOU TRADE IT!



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Re:

Postby prochargedmopar » Fri Dec 31, 2021 9:45 pm

MightyOne wrote:
prochargedmopar wrote:MightyOne,
So where did you buy in, 2825 or did you get in near the 2832 area?
I take it you sat through the -15 pip wick of the 3rd 15m candle in the hr.
Did you exit at 2800 or is this just an example of price action and how it works?
What did you think of the 1st M15 ?"doji"? that was basically the entire length of the 1 hr candle when the wicks were included.

I had a really bad day today.
Try -135 on real account. Worst ever.
Account has gone from 840 to 1046 to 350ish.
I should get good now that I'm below $400 being I'll be in conservation mode. LOL
NOT

Really,
thanks for all the info. Please keep posting. I'm reading this stuff non-stop and have printed out over 400 pages to carry around with me. I print the new stuff daily.

I can see some things. I can scalp 1m candles for 1-5 pips and get a lot of wins in a row. That's what I started doing on a demo the last few hrs being things slowed down. Seems easy to read direction when all that is in front of me is candles and I'm focused on movement/direction only.
On the scalping trades I was 26 out of 38 trades in profit.
This is the only way I can seem to get in a grove or make any headway.

WHAT GIVES.
Any Ideas?
Procharged


I didn't sit through any draw down what so ever...

Your biggest problem is that you are going for 1-5 pips.
Unless you have over $250,000, STP, discounted commissions, and are a professional level trader it is not likely that you will be a profitable trading for less than 5 pips.

You need to size your stops so that you don't get wicked on some random spike while at the same time doing every thing in your power to
exit at an even smaller loss.

When sitting with a profit you need to be thinking about exiting on extremes and immediately throwing out limit orders at a better price on the current candles.
While the getting is good keep getting...

I always told my trading buddies the following:

Price moves from entries to exits and back to entries;
exit on extremes, enter on stops, exit on extremes.

They repeated it back to me, but I don't think that it ever sank in :(


Bump Jan. 2009
Last edited by prochargedmopar on Fri Dec 31, 2021 9:46 pm, edited 1 time in total.
#1BODY in direction of profit #2INCREASE lot size Obsessively
My Losses cause me Great Laughter!
Trading Bible here> therumpledone/the-ideas-that-i-trade-by-t3256/page1670

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Re:

Postby prochargedmopar » Fri Dec 31, 2021 9:45 pm

dragon33 wrote:
MightyOne wrote:
dragon33 wrote:Hi everyone it has been a while since i posted in this forum. Everybody who was reading the babypips forum know i was trading really wel.
I gained a lot of money and then suddenly i was doing a lot of things wrong. I lost about 2000 euro. That was the point where i decided to go demo again.
At the same time MO was posting a lot about the zeroline.

If you use the zeroline in combination with some of TRO's techniques it is very powerful!!!

So thank you MO for your explenation, you brought me back on track. It is almost trading with laserprecision entry's. Keep posting MO i've almost learned as much from you as from TRO.

Greetings


I am sorry to hear about your troubles Dragon, but I am elated to hear that you are back on track.

I was really only going to show the basic idea of the ZL through breakouts of the extreme as my contribution to the community here and then continue on my merry way of reading TRO's posts.

It is amazing to see how many people are trading without a basic understanding of how and why price moves.


Hey Mighty, you brought me a clear view how price is moving i didn't know before. It sounds idiot but since i know i can trade again like i was doing before. The only difference now is that i understand why price is going back and forward.
It makes it so easy to wait for a good trade.
The last two weeks i was trading a lot with my new knowledge. I took 39 trades on a 5 min tmf 36 winners. The other are almost breakeven simple because you can wait to get a better price to take your loss.


Bump Jan. 2009
#1BODY in direction of profit #2INCREASE lot size Obsessively
My Losses cause me Great Laughter!
Trading Bible here> therumpledone/the-ideas-that-i-trade-by-t3256/page1670

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Re: Never Lose Again

Postby BambinoFlex » Wed Jan 05, 2022 12:25 am

More Pivot Price analyzer.

Here's the "translation" using a bullish mind frame.

Price tends to break previous daily highs if previous day was also bullish. Reason is that Pivots are slightly biased when the CLOSE is taken into account.

The Bottom two analyzers show that in the last 100 days, 0 days had the Pivots S1 and R1 INSIDE the previous day range. It's not shown, but there are also 0 days in the last 100 days with S1 or R1 BOTH outside previous day range.

With this information we can deduce that in the last 100 days, we have either R1 OR S1 outside the previous day range. Super easy to see "bias." Mixed in with other ideas, you can target previous high/low OR if you're holding a position, you can see if the bias is still in your favor.

This information can be replicated on higher and lower time frames.

Application:

Previous day closes bullish. Target - Previous day High. If feeling it, let it run. This is where MANY people complain (too harsh?) about TRO's wick zone. They say "what if price breaks previous high and comes back or doesn't close above the previous high." Maybe use previous high as the target, not the entry?

Entry:

This would be the determining factor if you can make money off this. I use an hourly "rat zone" entry. My preference is for price to revert back to the daily pivot (pivot fade) and wait for a break (rat zone entry). Lem shared with me a while back that you can also enter at the bottom/top of the wickzone. In a bullish previous day, entry would fit a bullish buyzone.

Stop loss, that would also change things. My recommendation is to study ranges. Maybe use an hourly ATR stop loss/money management.

I'm always finding new things that really confirm things shared on this forum. Even MO's ideas of "something closing higher..." fits here. If previous day closed bullish, bias is still bullish type of idea.
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Re: Never Lose Again

Postby BambinoFlex » Wed Jan 05, 2022 2:59 am

Here's an example of how important it is to understand profit targets and in general taking profits when you can.

The last post analyzed how price makes new highs/lows using pivot S1/R1 as a bias.

Here's a weekly chart. This week, price broke the previous low...so check mark...S1 is less than previous high, edge is low greater than previous low. Unfortunately, this pair, GBPCAD, opened and traded rather quickly toward that objective. Even though the previous low was broken, we're currently painting a bullish candle. This can be translated to the complaint people have about the wick zone, that it reverses.

My next "edge" is S1 and R1 as targets. Again, this can be replicated on daily, and even smaller timeframes. Even hourly, which I don't use since I tend to be away from my computer most of the time.

The second edge has more variables that can't be seen by the analyzer but in essence, price can reverse and hit R1 or S1 which are really far apart. So take profits when you can. Especially if trading the daily tf. These settings also point toward the "wicks" show loss idea from MO. This picture shows a wick breaking previous week low, but the bar didn't close below it, it closed higher.

I left the Level 3zz on it, even though its "bearish" you always have to have the mentality of "will it be a breakout or is it a swing reversal?" I'm sticking to a "breakout" and targeting the R1 weekly. This meshes together the previous post and this new post. If curious, I've seen price respect the S1 and R1 levels to the pip. If I'm trading the daily, I place my profits exactly on the lines or a few pips before. If a pair has crossed either S1 or R1, I dont trade it since R1 and S1 being crossed is not seen as often (think range).
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